Like-a-Fishhook Election Tracking

[minionofmidas]

Down to Mr Moderate

Valid Votes: 66

Quota 12

Round 1
Dwdl 10 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke) (2 second pref.s)
Al 9 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh) (16 second pref.s)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket) (1 second pref.)
Xahar 8 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Cookies) (12 second pref.s)
Jas 7 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Mr Mod) (11 second pref.s)
Colin 6 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS) (8 second pref.s)
Sensei 6 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe) (6 second pref.s)
Andrew 5 (self, Rocky, fez, Hugh, Polnut) (4 second pref.s)
Happy 5 (self, Andy Jackson, Meeker, Phil, Jedi) (1 second pref.)
benconstine 1 (self) (1 second pref.)

benconstine eliminated.

Round 2
Dwdl 11 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke, benconstine)
Al 9 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket)
Xahar 8 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Cookies)
Jas 7 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Mr Mod)
Colin 6 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS)
Sensei 6 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe)
Andrew 5 (self, Rocky, fez, Hugh, Polnut)
Happy 5 (self, Andy Jackson, Meeker, Phil, Jedi)

Happy eliminated.

Round 3
Dwdl 11 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke, benconstine)
Al 9 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket)
Xahar 9 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Andy Jackson, Cookies)
Sensei 9 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe, Meeker, Happy, Jedi)
Jas 7 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Mr Mod)
Colin 6 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS)
Andrew 5 (self, Rocky, fez, Hugh, Polnut)

exhausted 1 (Phil)

Andrew eliminated

Round 4
Dwdl 11 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke, benconstine)
Al 10 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh, Hugh)
Sensei 10 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe, Meeker, Happy, Jedi, Rocky)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket)
Xahar 9 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Andy Jackson, Cookies)
Jas 8 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Polnut, Mr Mod)
Colin 8 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS, Andrew, fez)

exhausted 1 (Phil)

Colin eliminated.

No time to do the full count now, nor did I check whether any vote actually travels to Dwdl before. Somebody else do that. I'm going to bed.

[Хahar 🤔]

Those are an interesting first two winners.

[The Mikado]

Those are an interesting first two winners.

True, but there are a lot of people who are holding off on voting until they know where their second preferences could best be used.  I know that's what I'm doing.  Don't get confident yet.  (Though I think that you and DWTL will both pick up a seat)

[Sensei]

Those are an interesting first two winners.

True, but there are a lot of people who are holding off on voting until they know where their second preferences could best be used.  I know that's what I'm doing.  Don't get confident yet.  (Though I think that you and DWTL will both pick up a seat)

It's very possible that they do both get a seat here, but you weren't here the last time Xahar got cocky.

[minionofmidas]

For amusement value only - same votes, different no.s of seats.

One vacancy, quota 10

Round 1
Sensei 3
Xahar 3
Dwdl 3
Colin 2
Andrew 2
Al 2
Culture King 2
Jas 1

Jas eliminated.

Round 2
Sensei 3
Xahar 3
Dwdl 3
Colin 3
Andrew 2
Al 2
Culture King 2

Culture King eliminated.

Round 3
Sensei 5
Xahar 3
Colin 3
Dwdl 3
Andrew 2
Al 2

Al eliminated.

Round 4
Sensei 5
Xahar 5
Colin 3
Dwdl 3
Andrew 2

Andrew eliminated.

Round 5
Sensei 6
Xahar 5
Colin 4
Dwdl 3

Dwdl eliminated.

Round 6
Xahar 7
Sensei 6
Colin 5

Colin eliminated.

Round 7
Xahar 9
Sensei 9

well... in the old days it'd go to a runoff.



Two vacancies, quota 7
Same to Round 6, where Xahar (quota) and Sensei (without a quota) are elected.


Three vacancies, quota 5

(...)
Round 3
(...)
Sensei elected, Al eliminated.
(...)
Round 4
(...)
Xahar elected, Andrew eliminated.

Round 5
Sensei 5
Xahar 5
Colin 5
Dwdl 3

Colin elected.


Four vacancies, quota 4

as real election to Round 4, where Al eliminated.

Round 5
Sensei 4
Xahar 5 (Torie, Evilmex, Hash, Lief, Franzl)
Colin 3.6 (self, Bull, Gustaf 1, Bacon, Alcon, CK .2)
Dwdl 3
Andrew 2.4

Xahar elected, surplus redistributed.

Round 6
Sensei 4 (self, Bacon, GM3, Alcon, CK .
Xahar 4 (Torie, Evilmex, Hash, Lief, Franzl .
Colin 3.8 (self, Bull, Gustaf 1, Bacon, Alcon, CK, Hash .2)
Dwdl 3.2 (PiT, Inks, Smid 1, Torie .2)
Andrew 3 (self, Rocky 1, Sensei, GM3, Evilmex, Franzl, Lief .2)

Andrew eliminated, Colin, Dwdl elected.

[Torie]

Eh, my third choice was DWTL. What happens to surplus votes of a winner again? 

[minionofmidas]

Eh, my third choice was DWTL. What happens to surplus votes of a winner again? 

Currently, the surplus part of your vote goes to 2nd pref. Jas. Jas doesn't have a surplus of his own, but if he did, and Dwdl was still in the running at that point (neither elected nor eliminated) he would be next to receive some of your largesse.

[Јas]

Updated count to Sensei...
(With bonus tutorial notes!)

Total Valid Votes: 12
Quota: 3

Count 1

Xahar	3
AndrewCT	2	(2 #2 preferences)
Sensei	2	(1 #2 preference)
DWTL	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Colin	1	(3 #2 preferences)
Jas	1	(2 #2 preferences)
Al	1	(1 #2 preference)
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(2 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)
CultureKing	0	(1 #9 preference)

Notes
Evilmexicandictator is included on my list due to his writing-in of himself.

On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

Xahar reaches the quota and is deemed elected.

With no surplus available to distribute, the lowest placed candidates are eliminated.
benconstine, HappyWarrior, Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are all eliminated on 0 votes - changing nothing.
Al is therefore eliminated as the next lowest placed remaining candidate and his vote will be redistributed in Count 2.


Count 2

Xahar	Elected
AndrewCT	3	(+1)
Sensei	2
DWTL	2
Colin	1
Jas	1
Al	0	(-1)

Notes
Lief's vote for Al flows to his #3 preference (AndrewCT) because his #2 preference (Xahar) is already deemed elected.
Andrew reaches the necessary 3 votes and is deemed elected.

That leaves 4 candidates for 3 seats, and no surpluses to redistribute, so the highest 3 remainign candidates are deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Therefore, on current figures, the 5 Senators-elect would be:
#1 Xahar
#2 AndrewCT
#3 Sensei
#4 DWTL
#5 Colin

Persons confused are encouraged to either (i) ask questions or (ii) remain confused. It's your choose!

[Јas]

Soem other ways of looking at things...
(just for fun! )

(To Sensei)

Candidate	Mean	Median	Mode
Xahar	4.18	4	1
AndrewCT	4	4	6
Sensei	4.58	4.5	4
DWTL	6.64	8	9
Colin	3.83	3.5	2
Jas	3.75	3	3
Al	5.08	5	5
benconstine	6.67	8	8
HappyWarrior	6	6.5	7
Evilmexicandictator	8	8	8
CultureKing	9	9	9

Notes
Xahar and DWTL benefit slightly because they received no preference whatever from bullmoose.
EMD and CultureKing have so far only received a single preference apiece so they are only included for completeness.

Mean
#1 Jas
#2 Colin
#3 AndrewCT
#4 Xahar
#5 Sensei

Median
#1 Jas
#2 Colin
=#3 Xahar
=#3 AndrewCT
#5 Sensei

Mode
#1 Xahar
#2 Colin
#3 Jas
#4 Sensei
#5 Al

[Јas]

Updated count to GM3...

Total Valid Votes: 13
Quota: 3

Count 1

Xahar	3	(2 #2 preferences)
Sensei	3	(1 #2 preference)
AndrewCT	2	(2 #2 preferences)
DWTL	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Colin	1	(3 #2 preferences)
Jas	1	(2 #2 preferences)
Al	1	(1 #2 preference)
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(2 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)
CultureKing	0	(1 #9 preference)

Notes
Evilmexicandictator is included on my list due to his writing-in of himself.

On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

Xahar and Sensei reach the quota and are deemed elected.

With no surplus available to distribute, the lowest placed candidates are eliminated.
benconstine, HappyWarrior, Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are all eliminated on 0 votes - changing nothing.
Al is therefore eliminated as the next lowest placed remaining candidate and his vote will be redistributed in Count 2.


Count 2

Xahar	Elected
Sensei	Elected
AndrewCT	3	(+1)
DWTL	2
Colin	1
Jas	1
Al	0	(-1)

Notes
Lief's vote for Al flows to his #3 preference (AndrewCT) because his #2 preference (Xahar) is already deemed elected.
Andrew reaches the necessary 3 votes and is deemed elected.

That leaves 4 candidates for 3 seats, and no surpluses to redistribute, so the highest 3 remaining candidates are deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Therefore, on current figures, the 5 Senators-elect would be:
#1 Xahar
#2 Sensei
#3 AndrewCT
#4 DWTL
#5 Colin

[Хahar 🤔]

I'm very pleasantly surprised. At this point, I'm probably voting for Al.

[minionofmidas]

Dated Up. (Infotainment post as well.)

[minionofmidas]

Letter to the editorial collective:

Hey, just a note on the Senate election count.

On a completely pedantic point, which is of no relevance (at the minute), Xahar has 3 #2 preferences (PiT, Lief, Franzl) - he's still behind Sensei, but based on 4th preferences.

Mr. Jas is correct.

[Хahar 🤔]

At the moment, 3 NLC, 2 SDP. Not bad.

[Јas]

Updated count to DWTL...

Total Valid Votes: 19
Quota: 4

Count 1

DWTL	4
Xahar	3	(5 #2 preferences)
Sensei	3	(3 #2 preference)
Colin	2	(3 #2 preferences, 3 #3 preferences)
AndrewCT	2	(3 #2 preferences, 1 #3 preference)
Al	2	(1 #2 preferences)
CultureKing	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(5 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)

Notes
*Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

*On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

*DWTL reaches the quota and is deemed elected.

*With no surplus available to distribute, the lowest placed candidates are eliminated.
benconstine, HappyWarrior, Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are all eliminated on 0 votes - changing nothing.

*Jas is therefore eliminated as the next lowest placed remaining candidate and his vote will be redistributed in Count 2.


Count 2 (Distribution of Jas's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Xahar	3
Sensei	3
Colin	3	(+1)
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	0	(-1)

Notes
Gustaf's vote for Jas flows to his #2 preference (Colin) who rises to a total of 3 votes.
With no new candidates elected and still no surplus to redistribute, the next lowest ranked candidate (CultureKing) is eliminated.


Count 3 (Distribution of CultureKing's votes)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	5	(+2)
Xahar	3
Colin	3
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	0	(-2)

Notes
CultureKing's votes (those cast by Alcon and CultureKing) both transfer to their #2 preference, Sensei.
Sensei therefore passes the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can affect the count (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last placed candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 4 (Distribution of Sensei's surplus)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3
Colin	3.4	(+0.4)
AndrewCT	2.4	(+0.4)
Al	2.2	(+0.2)

Notes
Sensei's surplus of 1 (with the quota set at 4) means that each of the 5 votes will be transfered at a value of 1/5, i.e. 0.2 each.

Sensei's surplus can only be distributed to either Xahar, Colin, AndrewCT or Al - whichever of them is ranked highest on each of the ballots.

Bacon King and Alcon next preferenced Colin, so he gains 0.4
Sensei and GM3 next preferenced AndrewCT, so he also gains 0.4
CultureKing next preferenced Al, so he gains 0.2

Nobody else is elected and no surplus is available to distribute. With only 4 candidates for the 3 remaining seats, the lowest placed candidate (Al) is eliminated and the remaining 3 deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Sensei
#3 Xahar
#4 Colin
#5 AndrewCT

[Јas]

Updated count to SPC...

Total Valid Votes: 20
Quota: 4

Count 1

DWTL	5
Xahar	3	(5 #2 preferences)
Sensei	3	(3 #2 preference)
Colin	2	(3 #2 preferences, 3 #3 preferences)
AndrewCT	2	(3 #2 preferences, 1 #3 preference)
Al	2	(1 #2 preferences)
CultureKing	2	(0 #2 preferences)
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(1 #2 preference)
HappyWarrior	0	(5 #3 preferences)
Evilmexicandictator	0	(1 #8 preference)

Notes
*Evilmexicandictator and CultureKing are included due to writing-in themselves in. All other write-ins are being ignored, lest the persons affected declare they are running.

*On the first count, candidates are ordered by the number of #1 preferences they receive. Where this is tied, they are ordered by the #2 preferences, and so on. (From Count 2 onwards, where candidates are tied on vote totals, they are ordered by their rank on the previous count.)

*DWTL surpasses the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can 'materially affect the progress of the count' (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last ranked candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 2 (Distribution of DWTL's surplus)

DWTL	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3.6	(+0.6)
Sensei	3
Colin	2
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	1
benconstine	0.2	(+0.2)
HappyWarrior	0
Evilmexicandictator	0
Non-Transferable	0.2	(+0.2)

Notes
Given his surplus of 1 (with the quota at 4), the 5 votes for DWTL are transfered at a value of 0.2 each.
PiT, Smid and DWTL all preferenced Xahar as #2, so he gains 0.6
Inks preferenced benconstine #2, so he gains 0.2
SPC did not preference any other candidate, so 0.2 is non-transferable.

Following the redistribution, no new candidates were elected and no surpluses are available to distrbibute. Therefore we must start eliminating candidates. EMD and HappyWarrior are eliminated on 0 votes, changing nothing. Therefore next to be eliminated is benconstine.


Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Xahar	3.6
Sensei	3
Colin	2.2	(+0.2)
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	1
benconstine	0	(-0.2)

Notes
ben's 0.2 comes from the vote of Inks, which now flows to his #3 preference, Colin.
With nobody elected, Jas is now eliminated.


Count 4 (Distribution of Jas's vote)

DWTL	Elected
Xahar	3.6
Colin	3.2	(+1)
Sensei	3
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	2
Jas	0	(-1)

Notes
Gustaf's vote for Jas flows to his #2 preference (Colin).
With no new candidates elected and still no surplus to redistribute, the next lowest ranked candidate (CultureKing) is eliminated.


Count 5 (Distribution of CultureKing's votes)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	5	(+2)
Xahar	3.6
Colin	3.2
AndrewCT	2
Al	2
CultureKing	0	(-2)

Notes
CultureKing's votes (those cast by Alcon and CultureKing) both transfer to their #2 preference, Sensei.
Sensei therefore passes the quota and is deemed elected with a surplus of 1.
As the surplus can affect the count (i.e. get someone elected and/or save the last placed candidate from elimination) it will be distributed next.


Count 6 (Distribution of Sensei's surplus)

DWTL	Elected
Sensei	Elected	(-1)
Xahar	3.6
Colin	3.6	(+0.4)
AndrewCT	2.4	(+0.4)
Al	2.2	(+0.2)

Notes
Sensei's surplus of 1 (with the quota set at 4) means that each of the 5 votes will be transfered at a value of 1/5, i.e. 0.2 each.

Sensei's surplus can only be distributed to either Xahar, Colin, AndrewCT or Al - whichever of them is ranked highest on each of the ballots.

Bacon King and Alcon next preferenced Colin, so he gains 0.4
Sensei and GM3 next preferenced AndrewCT, so he also gains 0.4
CultureKing next preferenced Al, so he gains 0.2

Nobody else is elected and no surplus is available to distribute. With only 4 candidates for the 3 remaining seats, the lowest placed candidate (Al) is eliminated and the remaining 3 deemed elected without reaching the quota.

Result
#1 DWTL
#2 Sensei
#3 Xahar
#4 Colin
#5 AndrewCT

[DownWithTheLeft]

Maybe this system isn't so bad after all, I've still got a decent amount of supporters yet to vote and I'm comfortably ahead for the moment.  It's amazing that I am leading right now with I believe 0 2nd prefs, and 1 3rd pref

[Јas]

Maybe this system isn't so bad after all, I've still got a decent amount of supporters yet to vote and I'm comfortably ahead for the moment.  It's amazing that I am leading right now with I believe 0 2nd prefs, and 1 3rd pref

I make your distribution to date: 5-0-1-0-0-0-1-4-4-3.
Where 5 is your total #1 preferences and 3 your total #10 preferences.
It's the most divisive spread of any candidate with almost no middle-ground.

At this point, you're only a small number of #1 preferences from a safe seat.

[Јas]

Early Analysis
The top 5 have been fairly stable recently, with DWTL and Xahar consolidating their positions most strongly.

DWTL tops the list thanks to a series of #1 preferences from the Atlasian hard right. His preference spread is interesting as he is clearly the most divisive figure on the ballot - he has received 5 #1s, but 11 preferences from #8-10 and hardly anything in between. Despite the very strong negatives, it shouldn't take too many more RPPites to ensure DWTL is there or thereabouts at the final count.

Xahar has attracted probably the most politically varied assortment of voters amongst his top preferences, doing particularly well with those who favour DWTL #1, but also creditably with the Atlasian left. With the SDP largely yet to turn out, Xahar's prospects must be seen as strong.

Sensei has a mix of strong and moderate support, with very little by way of negatives so far (these negatives correlating strongly with DWTL supporters). So far, it's the NLC left and JCP second preferences which seem to be propping up this campaign. With a lot of competition for the NLC vote and the JCP likely to need all their eggs in CultureKing's basket, Sensei is unlikely to be safe for a seat in this election, but will almost certainly be in with a shout until the end.

Colin is arguably the flagship NLC candidate who so far has receievd no strongly negative votes and a relatively even spread of high-medium preferences from across the spectrum. The traditional NLC vote is where Colin's core support lies but if it prooves too thinly spread the general goodwill of the remainder of Atlasia will ensure he is should at least be in strong contention.

AndrewCT is, like Colin, living off of the core NLC vote. Just how many people Atlasia's largest party is capable of supporting effectively will be tested in this election. In many ballots, he is preferenced behind Sensei or Colin, and one feels that unless he can muscle his way into contention for these votes, he may not in the end be returned.

Al has been lodged in 6th spot for some time now, just shy of the winning post. His highest preferences so far are unsurprisingly from the solid Atlaisan left, though he clearly has goodwill from the centre and soft-right. Al will require SDP support and a good showing from the solid left to gain a seat.

CultureKing has lost opportunities having to run via a write-in campaign. Thankfully for him however, his core JCP support (which was all he had on his previous run) probably won't need to see his name on the ballot to give him their thumbs up. With plenty more JCPers out there, CK's slow start camouflages the true potential of the JCP. Following the loss of the Pacifican seat from JCP hands, this election will tell whether or not the JCP remain a force in federal Atlasian politics.

Jas though exhibiting minimal negatives (what there is being from some DWTL supporters) seems to lack any base of solid support on which to gather the all important #1 preferences. Jas's votes are clustered between preferences #2-5 scoring highest amongst moderates of both sides. Though sweeping the Swedish vote, it will be an uphill battle if Jas is to be elected.

benconstine is challenging DWTL for having received the strongest negatives of all. 11 of the 20 votes cast so far have ranked him at #8 or 9 - coming from voters across the political spectrum. His highest preferences so far being a #2 from Inks and a #3 from AndrewCT. It would be a miraculous recovery for ben to salvage a Senate seat from this position.

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I think you overestimate the JCPs love for CK, remember his defection is the reason they lost the Pacific senate seat for the first time I can remember.

Xahar and HW's strong support for the RPP should also continue

[Јas]

I think you overestimate the JCPs love for CK, remember his defection is the reason they lost the Pacific senate seat for the first time I can remember.

He's already landed Alcon's vote and the endorsement of the JCP leader:

yay

cultureking4senate

Despite the vote for Torie, and what I would consider a voting record which is probably more centrist than the JCP as a whole; all the indications, so far, are that the JCP will give him their full support.

[minionofmidas]

Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

benconstine can still receive votes at that point? Really?

Not that it matters in this case, but it theoretically might if a party's bullet voters make up considerably more than a quota...

[Associate Justice PiT]

I think you overestimate the JCPs love for CK, remember his defection is the reason they lost the Pacific senate seat for the first time I can remember.

He's already landed Alcon's vote and the endorsement of the JCP leader:

yay

cultureking4senate

Despite the vote for Torie, and what I would consider a voting record which is probably more centrist than the JCP as a whole; all the indications, so far, are that the JCP will give him their full support.

     CultureKing will do just fine with the JCP. If they shaft him, they'll have nobody in the Senate.

[Јas]

Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

benconstine can still receive votes at that point? Really?

Yeah, I think so. (Though obviously, it's a weird scenario which I should imagine has never been tested in actual RL PR-STV situations.)

Under my reading of the PR Act, eliminations are only allowed where no surplus exists which could materially affect the progress of the count. Such a surplus technically existed, so no elimination could be carried out. Given that he wasn't eliminated, he was a candidate for election and therefore eligible to receive votes.

I never countenanced the scenario really arising, obviously, but I don't think it should be a problem. Just a quirk..

Not that it matters in this case, but it theoretically might if a party's bullet voters make up considerably more than a quota...

Yeah. I suppose so...that'd be interesting

[DownWithTheLeft]

HappyWarrior seems neither hated nor loved by the Atlasian electorate. He has received no #1 or #2 votes, but similarly has received few strongly negative preferences. A majority of his highest preferences have so far come from DWTL supporters, are are unlikely to have the coattails to help HW get anywhere this time out.

Another question another PR:
If the results hold and Xahar and myself are the first two elected, with HappyWarrior garnering 5 3rd prefs so far (and presumably more given the amount of RPPs left to vote) can that push him over the top?