Like-a-Fishhook Election Tracking

[minionofmidas]

Down to Mr Moderate

Valid Votes: 66

Quota 12

Round 1
Dwdl 10 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke) (2 second pref.s)
Al 9 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh) (16 second pref.s)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket) (1 second pref.)
Xahar 8 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Cookies) (12 second pref.s)
Jas 7 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Mr Mod) (11 second pref.s)
Colin 6 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS) (8 second pref.s)
Sensei 6 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe) (6 second pref.s)
Andrew 5 (self, Rocky, fez, Hugh, Polnut) (4 second pref.s)
Happy 5 (self, Andy Jackson, Meeker, Phil, Jedi) (1 second pref.)
benconstine 1 (self) (1 second pref.)

benconstine eliminated.

Round 2
Dwdl 11 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke, benconstine)
Al 9 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket)
Xahar 8 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Cookies)
Jas 7 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Mr Mod)
Colin 6 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS)
Sensei 6 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe)
Andrew 5 (self, Rocky, fez, Hugh, Polnut)
Happy 5 (self, Andy Jackson, Meeker, Phil, Jedi)

Happy eliminated.

Round 3
Dwdl 11 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke, benconstine)
Al 9 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket)
Xahar 9 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Andy Jackson, Cookies)
Sensei 9 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe, Meeker, Happy, Jedi)
Jas 7 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Mr Mod)
Colin 6 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS)
Andrew 5 (self, Rocky, fez, Hugh, Polnut)

exhausted 1 (Phil)

Andrew eliminated

Round 4
Dwdl 11 (self, Inks, PiT, Smid, SPC, Winfield, PBrunsel, Brandon, Sam Spade, Duke, benconstine)
Al 10 (self, Lief, Franzl, Earl, Pete, Preston, Dave Hawk, King, Josh, Hugh)
Sensei 10 (self, Bacon, GM3, Mikado, Smash, Old Europe, Meeker, Happy, Jedi, Rocky)
Culture King 9 (self, Alcon, Ebowed, Jesus, Everett, BRTD, Boris, jfern, rocket)
Xahar 9 (self, Opebo, Torie, Evilmex, Hash, sbane, MaxQue, Andy Jackson, Cookies)
Jas 8 (self, Gustaf, Afleitch, Verin, Cash, Lewis, Polnut, Mr Mod)
Colin 8 (self, Bull, Verily, Dibble, Frodo, MAS, Andrew, fez)

exhausted 1 (Phil)

Colin eliminated.

No time to do the full count now, nor did I check whether any vote actually travels to Dwdl before. Somebody else do that. I'm going to bed.

[minionofmidas]

For amusement value only - same votes, different no.s of seats.

One vacancy, quota 10

Round 1
Sensei 3
Xahar 3
Dwdl 3
Colin 2
Andrew 2
Al 2
Culture King 2
Jas 1

Jas eliminated.

Round 2
Sensei 3
Xahar 3
Dwdl 3
Colin 3
Andrew 2
Al 2
Culture King 2

Culture King eliminated.

Round 3
Sensei 5
Xahar 3
Colin 3
Dwdl 3
Andrew 2
Al 2

Al eliminated.

Round 4
Sensei 5
Xahar 5
Colin 3
Dwdl 3
Andrew 2

Andrew eliminated.

Round 5
Sensei 6
Xahar 5
Colin 4
Dwdl 3

Dwdl eliminated.

Round 6
Xahar 7
Sensei 6
Colin 5

Colin eliminated.

Round 7
Xahar 9
Sensei 9

well... in the old days it'd go to a runoff.



Two vacancies, quota 7
Same to Round 6, where Xahar (quota) and Sensei (without a quota) are elected.


Three vacancies, quota 5

(...)
Round 3
(...)
Sensei elected, Al eliminated.
(...)
Round 4
(...)
Xahar elected, Andrew eliminated.

Round 5
Sensei 5
Xahar 5
Colin 5
Dwdl 3

Colin elected.


Four vacancies, quota 4

as real election to Round 4, where Al eliminated.

Round 5
Sensei 4
Xahar 5 (Torie, Evilmex, Hash, Lief, Franzl)
Colin 3.6 (self, Bull, Gustaf 1, Bacon, Alcon, CK .2)
Dwdl 3
Andrew 2.4

Xahar elected, surplus redistributed.

Round 6
Sensei 4 (self, Bacon, GM3, Alcon, CK .
Xahar 4 (Torie, Evilmex, Hash, Lief, Franzl .
Colin 3.8 (self, Bull, Gustaf 1, Bacon, Alcon, CK, Hash .2)
Dwdl 3.2 (PiT, Inks, Smid 1, Torie .2)
Andrew 3 (self, Rocky 1, Sensei, GM3, Evilmex, Franzl, Lief .2)

Andrew eliminated, Colin, Dwdl elected.

[minionofmidas]

Eh, my third choice was DWTL. What happens to surplus votes of a winner again? 

Currently, the surplus part of your vote goes to 2nd pref. Jas. Jas doesn't have a surplus of his own, but if he did, and Dwdl was still in the running at that point (neither elected nor eliminated) he would be next to receive some of your largesse.

[minionofmidas]

Dated Up. (Infotainment post as well.)

[minionofmidas]

Letter to the editorial collective:

Hey, just a note on the Senate election count.

On a completely pedantic point, which is of no relevance (at the minute), Xahar has 3 #2 preferences (PiT, Lief, Franzl) - he's still behind Sensei, but based on 4th preferences.

Mr. Jas is correct.

[minionofmidas]

Count 3 (Distribution of benconstine's vote)

benconstine can still receive votes at that point? Really?

Not that it matters in this case, but it theoretically might if a party's bullet voters make up considerably more than a quota...

[minionofmidas]

The next Pacific Legislature law should be the True Accuracy in Balloting Act.

I suggest the Fairness in Candidate Insults Act

"All candidates shall be listed on the ballot as "Chode". They shall be identified on the ballot only by their state and party affiliation. Should there be two candidates from the same state with the same party affiliation, they shall be additionally identified by their forum number code". (If you click on view profile and check the address, that's the digits at the end. Not sure what it's officially called - somebody better check that before passing the law).

[minionofmidas]

Count updated.

[minionofmidas]

Hey! While I was updating, two more votes came in! Not fair!

[minionofmidas]

Why do you have Benconstine's vote flowing to Andrew once he's eliminated??  I'm his 2nd pref, I am confusing the rules again

It was an error - holdover from earlier counts where you were already elected on the first count. I noticed it while editing... and then PBrunsel came and made it true again.

[minionofmidas]

How is a vote without a first preference counted?

It's a judgment call for the SoFA. If he can make a 'reasonable determination' of the intent of the voter, then he should count the vote in that manner.

Marginal correction: It's a judgment call for the SoFA, with the option of going to court available no matter how he rules (unless it makes no difference to the final list of electees, I suppose).

He has ruled the ballot invalid. I will publish, both right after the next regular update, and after the polls close (but not at any additional update points in between) a count that includes her vote, treating her second pref. as first etc. This is just for informational value, and should not be read as disapproval or approval of the SoFA's decision.

[minionofmidas]

How is a vote without a first preference counted?

It's a judgment call for the SoFA. If he can make a 'reasonable determination' of the intent of the voter, then he should count the vote in that manner.

Marginal correction: It's a judgment call for the SoFA, with the option of going to court available no matter how he rules (unless it makes no difference to the final list of electees, I suppose).

He has ruled the ballot invalid. I will publish, both right after the next regular update, and after the polls close (but not at any additional update points in between) a count that includes her vote, treating her second pref. as first etc. This is just for informational value, and should not be read as disapproval or approval of the SoFA's decision.

     I assume Earl's decision would be upheld anyway, given the precedent of Akno21 v. Fritz.

With the SC, you never know.

Anyways, *currently* counting her vote as a vote for Al would make no difference to the progress of the count, but all the difference for the final list of electees, putting Al ahead of Culture King. Treat this as the promised "count".

[minionofmidas]

How is a vote without a first preference counted?

It's a judgment call for the SoFA. If he can make a 'reasonable determination' of the intent of the voter, then he should count the vote in that manner.

Marginal correction: It's a judgment call for the SoFA, with the option of going to court available no matter how he rules (unless it makes no difference to the final list of electees, I suppose).

He has ruled the ballot invalid. I will publish, both right after the next regular update, and after the polls close (but not at any additional update points in between) a count that includes her vote, treating her second pref. as first etc. This is just for informational value, and should not be read as disapproval or approval of the SoFA's decision.

     I assume Earl's decision would be upheld anyway, given the precedent of Akno21 v. Fritz.

With the SC, you never know.

Anyways, *currently* counting her vote as a vote for Al would make no difference to the progress of the count, but all the difference for the final list of electees, putting Al ahead of Culture King. Treat this as the promised "count".

     You're right. Her intent would be much more discernible than Mike Assad's was. It might make an interesting case.

Of course, the interpretation that she meant to vote for Jas (whom she lists 10th) also makes a certain amount of sense... *need to check if that changes anything*

EDIT: While it jerks around the order of elimination (Andrew goes before Jas), her vote still travels to Al and all votes still travel just as they do right now. (Atm - a situation is conceivable where that's not the case), so right now both most logical interpretations lead to the same result, while throwing the ballot out leads to another. Interesting complication there...

At least noone can accuse the SoFA of a partisan ruling here. After all, he voted for Al.

[minionofmidas]

We have received communications from Pedant's Corner. We believe the amendations to our count offered from there to be correct. The count has been amended accordingly.

[minionofmidas]

We have received communications from Pedant's Corner. We believe the amendations to our count offered from there to be correct. The count has been amended accordingly.

     You mean they will count her vote?

No, I wasn't referring to the DoFA.
Jas pointed out to me that MAS has two third pref.s on his ballot, and that I gave Al a second pref. too few.

The DoFA has ruled, and I do not expect them to change their ruling.

[minionofmidas]

Just went over the remaining voter list...

AHDuke 99 - Another Dwdl vote I suppose.
AltWorlder - who?
applemanmat - who?
Bob - unlikely to turn up
Bono - unlikely to turn up
Boris - possible JCP bullet vote, possible non-show
Cookies and Milk - doesn't he usually vote for Sensei, gets thrown out for lack of activity? So this time he's active enough?
dubya2004 - not seen much of Jake recently. Suppose he'll show up though. Could see him vote for Colin, Al, or even Dwdl.
Ernest - will vote. will vote late. Unpredictable who for.
gporter - haven't seen him in a while.
hughento - NLC or Jas. If he turns up, which is likely but not certain
jfern - JCP voter
josh4bush - no clue who he'll vote for
Lewis Trondheim - Yes, I will vote. Tomorrow. -_-
LiberalPA - Hardly been around recently.
Mark Warner 08 - Hardly ever involved in Atlasia business. Reachable by GOTV efforts
MATCHU[D] - ditto
Miamiu1027 - possible JCP bullet vote, more likely not to show up
Mr. Moderate - Pretty much pledged to Jas. Probably pondering tactical vote options, though, and likely to vote quite late.
Old Europe - Usually dependable voter, even if otherwise uninvolved. No idea what's keeping him
phknrocket1k - possible JCP bullet vote
Polnut - is he still around?
Reaganfan - suppose he'll show up. NLC or Happy.
Realpolitik - Probably waiting for tactical reasons
supersoulty - likely Colin/Andrew vote
TCash101 - Waiting for tactical reasons?
theking2004 - no clue
TJN2024 - Another Dwdl vote?
true democrat - likely Colin/Andrew vote
YoungRepub - same, if he shows up

[minionofmidas]

Cookies and Milk - doesn't he usually vote for Sensei, gets thrown out for lack of activity? So this time he's active enough?

No, he's not a Sensei voter. I know him IRL. Since he's been active enough (what with the run for Governor), he'll almost certainly vote for me if he bothers to vote.

this

Meh, you two are easy to confuse.

He first registered back when you two were allies, anyhow. Suppose my mistake stems from there.

[minionofmidas]

This seems to be the tactically correct ordering my top 3 preferences, and the tactically correct ordering of the next three (although 5th and 6th is exceedingly likely to be irrelevant tactically).
Of course, I may very easily be proven wrong yet.

We *might* yet salvage the Jas campaign.

[minionofmidas]

How long 'till polls close now [question mark]

Must remember to vote later.

11pm GMT. I think.

[minionofmidas]

What, no new votes during the past hours?

Well. Still about three hours to go. The election is desperately close, people.

[minionofmidas]

Not hard to add a single vote that changes virtually nothing.

Is my count correct so far?

[minionofmidas]

Not hard to add a single vote that changes virtually nothing.

Is my count correct so far?

We are in quite absolute agreement

I haven't checked through the full 61 to see if everyone is truly eligible but I imagine someone would have raised something about such by now if that was the case.

Actually... I assume everybody would have trusted the SoFA's list, just like I am doing.

[minionofmidas]

A vote for Jas would have quite dramatic effect atm.

[minionofmidas]

A vote for Jas would have quite dramatic effect atm.

What sort of effect [question mark]

Knock out Colin. I haven't followed it through, but I'm quite 100% certain that it would end up as a direct Colin for Jas substitution.

Of course, there's a reason why I said "atm".

[minionofmidas]

Looks like not being on the ballot doomed CK! oh well

What, don't you have four pocket votes lined up? Oh dear.