This Election Is (Probably) Over

[Sam Spade]

The election is far from over.  Obama certainly has time to figure it out.

However, just as a general observation, Torie's gut sense seems right to me as to what the "voters" think.

[Sam Spade]

The election is far from over.  Obama certainly has time to figure it out.

However, just as a general observation, Torie's gut sense seems right to me as to what the "voters" think.

Indeed, it is far from over, and Obama still has the edge. The issue is whether he can effect a mid course correction. Does he have it within him?  Does he have the ability to seem less uptight, and natural?  Does he have the ability to seem more authentic?  Obama has been suffering an erosion with the young in part because of this.

Yep.  As far as I can see, Obama's chance of winning has fallen from about 2-1 or 60-40 to about 60-40 or 55-45.  And yes, it is a matter of whether Obama can make the adjustment.

[Sam Spade]

You know, if a candidate loses, the next day, people here will be arguing the guy who lost couldn't have won, for reasons XY and Z.  It's a natural instinct, and it's wrong.  At this current moment, either McCain or Obama could win.  John Kerry could've won in 2004, and the Democrats' recent spate of "Bush couldn't be beat in 2004" are a way of emotionally distancing themselves from the pain of having such an important race slip through their fingers.

With the possible exception of Bob Dole, every major party candidate in the last 20 years could have won, and so could have Perot if he had played his cards right.

You could be right about that.

He is right - though there's no way Dukakis could have won after the second debate in 1988 or Bush 41 after the last debate in 1992. 

Perot ended his chances with his first dropping out - which I think came somewhere around the "alien" remark.  I don't know whether he could have won - long-term - who knows.

[Sam Spade]

At the end of the day, the US is still a center-right country, and far leftists like Obama have a hard time winning.

America is a center-right country at this point, but that can change soon. Just 30 years ago, America was a center-left country and had been so for around 40 years.

Things change.

True, but it's not shifting this election - that's for sure.

[Sam Spade]

You know, if a candidate loses, the next day, people here will be arguing the guy who lost couldn't have won, for reasons XY and Z.  It's a natural instinct, and it's wrong.  At this current moment, either McCain or Obama could win.  John Kerry could've won in 2004, and the Democrats' recent spate of "Bush couldn't be beat in 2004" are a way of emotionally distancing themselves from the pain of having such an important race slip through their fingers.

With the possible exception of Bob Dole, every major party candidate in the last 20 years could have won, and so could have Perot if he had played his cards right.

You could be right about that.

He is right -

Of course, if McCain wins, next year many, many people will be saying that there was no way that a near freshman African-American Senator named Barack Hussein Obama could have defeated a POW war hero and maverick Senator of 20 years.

They will?  Considering the present environment?  Maybe.

[Sam Spade]

You know, if a candidate loses, the next day, people here will be arguing the guy who lost couldn't have won, for reasons XY and Z.  It's a natural instinct, and it's wrong.  At this current moment, either McCain or Obama could win.  John Kerry could've won in 2004, and the Democrats' recent spate of "Bush couldn't be beat in 2004" are a way of emotionally distancing themselves from the pain of having such an important race slip through their fingers.

With the possible exception of Bob Dole, every major party candidate in the last 20 years could have won, and so could have Perot if he had played his cards right.

You could be right about that.

He is right -

Of course, if McCain wins, next year many, many people will be saying that there was no way that a near freshman African-American Senator named Barack Hussein Obama could have defeated a POW war hero and maverick Senator of 20 years.

They will?  Considering the present environment?  Maybe.

Especially considering the present environment, dont'cha think?

History is sometimes interesting that way - most people have the idea now that Bush 41 was simply a shoo-in because Reagan.  Rather, Dukakis should have had a slight edge generically.

[Sam Spade]

You know, if a candidate loses, the next day, people here will be arguing the guy who lost couldn't have won, for reasons XY and Z.  It's a natural instinct, and it's wrong.  At this current moment, either McCain or Obama could win.  John Kerry could've won in 2004, and the Democrats' recent spate of "Bush couldn't be beat in 2004" are a way of emotionally distancing themselves from the pain of having such an important race slip through their fingers.

With the possible exception of Bob Dole, every major party candidate in the last 20 years could have won, and so could have Perot if he had played his cards right.

You could be right about that.

He is right -

Of course, if McCain wins, next year many, many people will be saying that there was no way that a near freshman African-American Senator named Barack Hussein Obama could have defeated a POW war hero and maverick Senator of 20 years.

They will?  Considering the present environment?  Maybe.

Especially considering the present environment, dont'cha think?

History is sometimes interesting that way - most people have the idea now that Bush 41 was simply a shoo-in because Reagan.  Rather, Dukakis should have had a slight edge generically.

So since Bush is unpopular McCain is Dukakis in this scenario? I wouldn't go so far as to say McCain has a slight edge generically, but he certainly does have a huge edge by conventional biographical/resume measurements, and with a McCain win people will understandably see this as decisive. O/c, that doesn't mean they would be right (look at Kerry).

McCain is Dukakis in this scenario?  I don't think so.  That was just an example to show how opinions of elections change over time.

[Sam Spade]

This thread has sure come a long way.

uh-oh.  I see another Torie recruit.