This Election Is (Probably) Over

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama has 264 EVs and only needs one >6 EV tossup state, and the election is over?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama has 264 EVs and only needs one >6 EV tossup state, and the election is over?

LOL!

Are you seriously saying McCain is a shoo-in? Because that's what disagreeing with the above post is saying.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama has 264 EVs and only needs one >6 EV tossup state, and the election is over?

LOL!

Are you seriously saying McCain is a shoo-in? Because that's what disagreeing with the above post is saying.

I'm not seriously saying he's a shoo-in. I never said he was. Disagreeing with the above post is disagreeing with your assinine belief that Indiana is a toss up and North Dakota is only slightly leaning to McCain.

And, for whatever reason, Delaware isn't strongly Democratic. I guess that's you being "fair."

You know where the map comes from, right?

I disagree with Indiana too, but put it as strong McCain and the map isn't much better than him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know where the map comes from, right?

A complete toolbox?

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/index.php

And all evidence points to that North Dakota will closer than 2000/04. Do I think Obama will win it? No. But expecting a McCain blowout comparable to Bush's is just as naive.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You know where the map comes from, right?

A complete toolbox?

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/index.php

And all evidence points to that North Dakota will closer than 2000/04. Do I think Obama will win it? No. But expecting a McCain blowout comparable to Bush's is just as naive.

Oh wow! The state poll averages for three months before an election sure does shut me up! I'm sure the map will look just like that a few days before November 4th!

OK, now do honestly believe McCain will win ND by as big as Bush did?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I finally read the original post, and there is nothing in it that could not be debunked by 2006.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

See where knee-jerk pessimism gets you?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something tells me JSojourner will never be a top political analyst. Not that he'd argue with this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hey, remember some of the stuff Democrats were saying about Bob Casey in the first half of 2006?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't know...I was a member here in 2004 and I recall a lot of Democrats here predicting Kerry winning.

A reasonable prediction. He didn't lose by much and the election was a tossup up until the end.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is what I, the more seasoned analysis saw wrong with those:

One --  convince the voters of outright lies about Obama (as was done with Kerry) using a 527 ad blitz funded by mega-millionaires committed to the Democrats' defeat

First, legally a candidate can't "use" 527s, period. And the main difference between Obama and Kerry was Obama had proven that he could respond to smears (as he did in the primary). Kerry didn't do as well. Obama is simply the better responder, something the Democrats improved greatly on in 2006 as well.

Two --  Make an issue of something fundamentalist Christians and Evangelicals felt they could not ignore in several key states.  (Here, I failed to recognize the impressive trend among emerging churches and post-conservative evangelicals.  I thought it was too much to hope for...but evidently, balanced thinking is getting a fair hearing.  Either that or they just stayed home.)

This was never going to happen, period. Fundie turnout maxed out with Bush in 2004. McCain could never top that, they'd never love him as much as Bush, especially with the environment so different. It'd be like a future white Democratic candidate trying to top Obama's black turnout. Not going to happen.

Three --  Take advantage of race.  First, nothing makes me so happy as to say this did not occur.  People were not afraid of the black male, thank God.  But I also am so happy to report there seems to be no evidence that John McCain wanted to go there.  He does not have a racist bone in his body. Undoubtedly, being targeted by a racist smear generated by the Bush folks in 2000 was a factor in making such tactics distasteful.  The other factor being John McCains unswerving common decency.

He didn't go there because it couldn't work. How can you run an "Obama is black" ad without backlash? The racists were going to vote McCain anyway. Luckily there just wasn't enough of them, and they were all rather concentrated.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ah, I remember that dumbass now. I wouldn't be surprised if he left because I kept hassling him because of that mind-numbingly moronic comment he made about Obama and West Virginia.