JSojourner---
I too share some of your fears, but if your theory was correct and people always preferred black and white thinking to nuance, Republicans would win every single time, which obviously doesn't hapen.
I do agree that Obama needs to be a bit more forceful in his attacks on McCain. He is starting to fall into the "nice guy" trap of trying to be "above" that kind of crap, which of course never works for Democrats. I say starting because there is still plenty of time for him to reverse course; hopefully he has someone in his inner circle smart enough to point this out to him.
The convention will be his big chance to show voters he's strong enough and capable enough for the job. We'll see how he does. It's definitely not over for either side at least until after the debates, though the first polls post GOP convention will be highly instructive; history suggests whoever is ahead after the second convention always wins, and I think that'll be especially likely if Obama is still in the lead (by however narrow a margin).
He ran against hardball politics (although he played it himself, pretty good).
It was also suggested, in the first post, that Hillary Clinton was a safer bet because she made that "have a drink with'em" criteria. However, Hillary, too, had the policywonk reputation, so I don't buy that argument.
The only way the democrats lose this election is because the public doesn't know Obama well enough and McCain's history as a soldier and maverick.
