This Election Is (Probably) Over

[War on Want]

JS please don't overeact. Our prospects our high this election and I bet by convention we will have a good solid lead of 5-8 points again. Patterns throughout this country's history have proven that McCain winning would be an anomaly and I trust that psycologically is would be very hard for McCain to turn the tables on Obama and label him as an incumbent for the Democrats lead in Congress. The McCain campaign's only shot is to bomb the hell out of Obama on energy(not totally successfull really, Obama has a good shot of firing back), Experience and the Surge. Even then it would be a very marginal victory.
All that Obama has to do is use what Reagan used against Jimmy Carter. The secret nuclear bomb that always seems to work in the end. Are you better off now than you were eight years ago? Now of course in all honesty the majority of America is but psycologically we are not and I think Obama's strategy of tying McCain to Bush has been fairly successful and most of the supporters of McCain are just voting for him out of "fear"

Now of course this is just an overall strategy idea and if you want to go into individual states think of how hard it would be for McCain to win Michigan with all of the economic troubles there and his statements. If it ever gets really close(not likely), all that Obama would have to do is drop a neg bomb on the state using his comments that the jobs weren't coming back. This is one of McCain's only chances to win the election really without sewing up the Southwest which would also be a big challenge because of Obama's relative overperformance of Kerry here. I think that he will almost for sure win New Mexico albeit by a fairly small margin. Nevada will be very close with a very slight lean towards McCain and Colorado will more likely have a slight lean towards Obama but is more of a tossup. This is also one of McCain's only chances of holding off and it would be a struggle. I also doubt he can hold Ohio if Obama starts going negative on the economy, it is already close but with a very slight lean for Obama and I think he will get the edge here although small.

[War on Want]

JSojourner, I disagree, but I will say this.

1.  Those people who expected Obama to vastly outperform McCain in debates are likely to be disappointed.

2.  The "rock star" packaging of Obama is a big mistake and it's been a mistake that he has made.  He needed to connect with the average voter, and, for the most part, he hasn't.

3.  Those Obama supporters who expected Obama to win because he is articulate and intelligent, should wake up and smell the coffee at this report.  Obama is not a "poor child made good."  Him mother had a Ph D, his stepfather an oil company executive, and his grandmother was vice president of a bank.  He was raised upper middle class.  No matter how you look at it, his pre-Senate accomplishments were not atypical of someone from that background and McCain's personal story is more compelling.

The second one is opinion, the third is partially true but voters really don't care.

[War on Want]

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In other words, we ain't smart enough to see the big picture.

I got it.

We ain't smart like the liberals.

No, lots of McCain voters get swayed by stupid things like gay marriage, abortion and Obama not having a flag lapel. You have to be ing kidding me if those are legitimate reasons to not support Obama.