OFFICIAL Vice President leaks, tips, and speculation thread

[Mr. Morden]

AFAIK, CBS is still the lone source to report as fact that the timing of the announcement will definitely be Friday afternoon, and they're not even doing it in a regular news story.  It's in a blog post on the "Horserace" blog.  So I remain a little skeptical until other outlets report it too.  Marc Ambinder (which the CBS blog post references) had earlier suggested it might be Friday, but is now walking that back, saying maybe Thursday:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/obama_what_we_know_and_dont_kn.php

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[Mr. Morden]

Howard Fineman of Newsweek writes this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26288748/

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[Mr. Morden]

Why not Jack Reed instead of Biden?

Reed has already indicated that he doesn't want the job, and would turn it down if offered.

[Mr. Morden]

The event scheduled with Tim Kaine on Thursday is apparently invitation-only, and would not be all that well suited to a VP unveil. If it's going to be Kaine, in other words, Obama would probably need to announce today.

Also, other sources have reportd that the appearance in Springfield on Saturday would be the first joint appearance between Obama and his running mate.  Maybe, just seconds before Obama's appearance with Kaine tomorrow, he should turn to Kaine and say "Oh, by the way, I just offered the job to Joe Biden." 

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.nashvillepost.com/news/2008/8/20/obama_team_to_hold_major_event_saturday_in_bayhs_indiana

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[Mr. Morden]

What time is Obama's event with Kaine tomorrow?

[Mr. Morden]

Ambinder:

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/putting_the_clues_together_sti.php

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[Mr. Morden]

What time is Obama's event with Kaine tomorrow?

not sure.
Obama meeting underway
Invitation-only audience told they would be among first notified of VP candidate
http://www.martinsvillebulletin.com/article.cfm?ID=15201

Obama, the presumed Democratic nominee for president, is holding an invitation-only event today at an undisclosed time and location. It has been speculated the campaign will announce Gov. Tim Kaine as the vice presidential candidate.

By 10 a.m. Wednesday, a long line of people winded around in front of a building in Henry County, eager to attend the late-morning meeting. Before they were allowed access, attendees were required to pass through a metal detector, and security wands were then waved over each person as a secondary precaution.

Reading that article carefully, it seems to be a little misleading:

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Aren't they just telling these people to sign up for the very same text message VP announcement that's already been reported in the media (and is available to anyone who wants to sign up)?  Then the article says:

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What is the relationship between those two sentences?  Are they saying that it's been speculated that Kaine will be announced as the VP choice *at that meeting*?  Or just that there's this meeting that Obama's going to in Virginia, and Virginia also happens to be the home state of one of Kaine, who is a leading VP contender?

[Mr. Morden]

All of the prospects have been asked where they will be tomorrow afternoon
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12659.html
According to Newsweek's Howard Fineman, the prospects will know soon: They've been asked where they can be reached tomorrow afternoon.

Yeah, that was mentioned last night:

Howard Fineman of Newsweek writes this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26288748/

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[Mr. Morden]

An Obama aide has denied the report of a big Saturday event in Indiana:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/12659.html

[Mr. Morden]

When I looked up how Nunn voted against the Iraq War I thought it was him for a few hours before I came to my senses and held onto my Bayh prediction.

To clarify, it was the Gulf War that Nunn voted against.  Nunn was already out of the Senate at the time of the Iraq War vote.  But he was publicly against the Iraq War at the beginning, as I understand it.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden's son will be deployed to Iraq on October 3rd, which happens to be just 1 day after the vice presidential debate in St. Louis:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/08/20/bidens_son_off_to_iraq.html

[Mr. Morden]

Oo oo.  Here's a big clue:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/21/1280082.aspx

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

[Mr. Morden]

Here's what I've uncovered about Obama's schedule today:

Obama is right now at an invitation only gathering with Tim Kaine in Richmond (it started at 10:30am Eastern):

http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-08-21-0157.html

After that, Obama heads down to Chesapeake (without Kaine), which is about 2 hours' drive away (though he may be flying....I don't know....with Secret Service, that might be easier).  There's a town hall meeting in Chesapeake:

http://www.wvec.com/news/topstories/stories/wvec_local_082008_obama_chesapeake.17310f17.html

Doors open for that town hall meeting at 4:30pm, but I don't know what time the event actually starts.  Anyway, assuming that the event in Richmond doesn't go on for hours and hours, that leaves Obama a few hours in the afternoon, where all he's doing is going from Richmond to Chesapeake (and he could certainly talk on the phone in the car or the plane, as somone else will be driving/flying him).

Howard Fineman said that one of the VP contenders indicated that the Obama people told him to be available for a call on Thursday afternoon.  So it's entirely plausible that Obama will be calling his VP choice this afternoon, and then calling the finalists who were not chosen after that.  Once that happens, the Obama campaign will probably send out the announcement, because it's only a matter of time before it leaks once that many people know.

Of course, that's pure speculation on my part.

[Mr. Morden]

Oo oo.  Here's a big clue:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/21/1280082.aspx

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WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

IF HE FORGETS HIS GYMBAG MAYBE HE WILL FORGET NUCELAR LAUNCH CODEZ

EVAN BAYH, UNFIT 4 SERVICE

Oh my God, you're correct.  Also, here's another tantalizing clue from the veep paparazzi:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/08/21/1281749.aspx

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BIDEN FAILS TO FEED THE PRESS, WHICH MEANS HE DOESN'T CARE IF YOU AND YOUR FAMILY STARVE

[Mr. Morden]

There has to be some connection between the polar bears and Evan Bayh's gym bag.  If we can figure out what it is, we'll know who Obama has chosen as his running mate.

[Mr. Morden]

There has to be some connection between the polar bears and Evan Bayh's gym bag.  If we can figure out what it is, we'll know who Obama has chosen as his running mate.

It's clearly Mike Gravel, judging from those two pieces of elements.

I'm not sure.  If, instead of a polar bear, it was a rock, then maybe you'd be on to something.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm wondering if they're going to announce the name just before the national broadcast news shows at 6:30pm Eastern.  If they haven't done it by then, then I'm guessing they'll wait until tomorrow.  Though I guess they could also do it late tonight, and then have it be the lead story in every newspaper tomorrow morning.

[Mr. Morden]

Indeed.  Also, they could release the text message late tonight (not TOO late, obviously, but let's say 10 pm EST) and have no statement out fromt he Obama campaign about it until the next morning.

I'm not sure that would work.  The second the text message goes out, the journalists embedded with the Obama campaign will ask the campaign for comment.  What are they supposed to say then?  "We have no comment on this.  Ask us about something else"?  If they're too evasive, people will question whether the text was just a hoax or something, and the whole thing could backfire.  I think they have to start taking questions on the veep selection as soon as the text goes out.

[Mr. Morden]

Here's a question: Once the name is announced, who do you think will be the first to post the news on this board?

[Mr. Morden]

Keith Olberman mentioned on 'Countdown' tonight that Howard Fineman had just talked to one of the final three contenders who told that he was told he wasn't the pick, but was told who would be.

If that is actually true, then I can't believe the identity of the pick will remain a secret for more than another few hours.  If some of the VP also rans are already telling reporters that it's not them, but they know who it is.....this secret isn't going to last very long.

[Mr. Morden]

2) Olbermann says that one of the three told him that he wasn't the VP.

Howard Fineman said that.  Not Olbermann.

[Mr. Morden]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/22/source-obama-calls-veep-runner-ups/

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[Mr. Morden]

Well they won't send the text out until all time zones has crossed the noon mark....

Huh?

[Mr. Morden]

It seems like we are down to two.

It often seems like that, E.  But what's the history?  How many from the pool of Edwards, Cheney,
Lieberman, Kemp, Gore, Quayle, Bentsen and so forth were "finalists"?

IIRC, back in 1996, it was only in the last few days that Kemp's name was added to the mix.  There had been rumored short lists leaked to the media, and then a few days before the announcement, Kemp's name started getting dropped in there, and then suddenly he was the pick.  (But of course, that's not the same as the name being completely out of left field at the time the announcement is made.)  I'm pretty sure every other VP nominee going back to at least 1992 was a "finalist".