New NH Poll

[Ben.]

Some good news from one of 2000’s closest states

“Looking ahead to the November election, 38 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Bush, and 53 percent said they would vote for Democrat John Kerry. In a matchup with Democrat John Edwards, 51 percent said they would vote for Edwards and 37 percent said they would vote for Bush.

Pollster Andrew Smith said Bush is in a tough spot, but the large number of Republicans in the state should pull his approval ratings up as the election approaches.”

Any Thoughts

[© tweed]

This was already posted in the Prediction Discussion thread.  But that's okay.

I am surprised, but not shocked, by this poll.  NH is a conservative state, and has a great 4.1% unEmp rating..but NH does shift to the lean Kerry column now.

[daniel27]

That would be a good news ....but i still think it is a close state

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Doesn't seem to be THAT conserative.  Clinton in 92 and 96.  More liberal votes (Gore + Nader) than conservative (Bush + Buchanan) in 2000.  I think NH my finally be stepping in line with the rest of the region.  

[California Dreamer]

Unfortunately it is a bit of 'too little too late'

If you add NH to Gore in 2000 he wins, but if Kerry wins all Gore states and NH he still loses due to changes in EC math

The only way it might help is if Kerry wins every Gore state plus New Hampshire AND Arkansas.  (even if he picks up NH and NV or NH and WV he still would lose)

[opebo]

Unfortunately it is a bit of 'too little too late'

If you add NH to Gore in 2000 he wins, but if Kerry wins all Gore states and NH he still loses due to changes in EC math

The only way it might help is if Kerry wins every Gore state plus New Hampshire AND Arkansas.  (even if he picks up NH and NV or NH and WV he still would lose)

True, and he doesn't have a chance in Arkansas.

[© tweed]

Unfortunately it is a bit of 'too little too late'

If you add NH to Gore in 2000 he wins, but if Kerry wins all Gore states and NH he still loses due to changes in EC math

The only way it might help is if Kerry wins every Gore state plus New Hampshire AND Arkansas.  (even if he picks up NH and NV or NH and WV he still would lose)

True, and he doesn't have a chance in Arkansas.

Opebo always overestimates Bush's popularity.  AR could go for Kerry, and Edwards would have a hard time losing it.

[zachman]

This poll is a little surprising even to me. Everyone in NH hates Bush (that's not much of an over-exaggeration), but if the republicans stay behind him he would win here. I guess they are split, and are not all behind him. It is probable that Bush will not win here in November. I think the gay marriage issue will kill Bush's chances of winning in the upper midwest spare maybe Iowa. Arizona Virginia and Florida may start to see democratic gains, with this issue. My advice to Kerry- ignore Missouri and West Virginia. Focus on making urban America vote. Don't flip-flop on gay marriage, be confident in what you say.

[Mort from NewYawk]

The Republicans don't need NH this time around, and may very well not get it.

Nader got almost 4% in 2000, in a state where Bush's margin over Gore was barely 1.3%.

The battle is in the Midwest - I agree that, like 2000, it's a lot about urban vs. non-urban.

[zachman]

The republicans shouldn't focus on NH, but the republican party needs to hold on to all four seats in congress here in order to keep strong control of NH's political stance.

NH and Arizona, and Kerry taking all the Gore states will put Kerry over the top- that possibility is not that unlikely.