Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
Posts: 9,123
Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2008, 01:24:44 PM » |
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Going by my confidence ratings, Obama is at 252, so amongst the tossups...
OH alone = win
FL alone = win
VA + NM/NV = win
MO + CO/IA = win
CO + IA + NM/NV (most likely) = win
IA + NM + NV = tie
McCain has 189, so he needs 81 tossup EVs:
FL + OH + VA + MO + CO + NV/NM/IA (most likely) = win
FL + OH + VA + MO + IA + NM/NV = win
FL + OH + VA + MO + NV + NM = win
FL + OH + MO + IA + CO + NV + NM = win
FL + OH + VA + MO + CO = tie
Guess who has the tougher road?
For McCain to win without Ohio, he'll have to pick up ALL tossups plus NH, or miss some small change and get MN, or manage a coup in MI or PA. Not likely.
For McCain to win without Florida, he'll have to pick up ALL tossups plus MN. Miss any tossups, and he'll need either MI or PA.
Bottom line: even though McCain and Obama are running at a dead heat, Obama's position is much more defensible. He has a much larger margin for error. Combine this with the fact that Obama can dump huge campaign dollars into McCain's weak spots, and I'd say at this point Obama has a HUGE edge.
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