PA: Rasmussen: Another Kerry state under fire

[Alcon]

Sometimes I think we put too much faith in Rasmussen polls.  He's a good pollster, but +/-4.5% is still a lot.

[Torie]

I wants the my precious  cross tabs, even if the Alconion sub-sample is MOE humungous (sp)!

[Alcon]

I wants the my precious  cross tabs, even if the Alconion sub-sample is MOE humungous (sp)!

Dude, it's not my margin of error.  It's God's (or something)

[exopolitician]

Still leaning blue. [or...red...says Dave Leip]

[Sbane]

More solid than you make it out to be. You act like it is a total tossup, that is for states like Nevada, Colorado and Ohio not Pennsylvania.

Hahaha...

Oh, you silly, silly child. You're right. It won't be a total toss up like it has been for plenty of elections.

If there was a category between pure tossup and lean Obama, I would put PA there. I would also put NM,IA and MI in that category as well. Is that good enough for you o great one?

[elcorazon]

Phil:  "[Pennsylvania has been] a total tossup ... for plenty of elections"

actual results in PA:

2004:  Kerry by 2.5% (Bush won by a similar margin)
2000:  Gore by 4.2% (Gore won popular vote by less than 1%)
1996:  Clinton by 9.2% (Clinton won by 8.5%)
1992: Clinton by 9.0% (Clinton won by 5.6%)
1988:  Bush by 2.3% (Bush won by 7.6%)
1984:  Reagan by 7.3% (Reagan won by 18.2%)
1980:  Reagan by 7.1% (Reagan won by 9.7%)
1976:  Carter by 2.7% (Carter won by 2.1%)

In each of the last 8 elections PA has been more Democratic than the rest of the country.  The closest to the national average were 1976 and 1996, both Dem victories, and 1976 seemed to be a completely different world than today.  1996 may show where the peak for Dems is in PA at least at that time, regardles of national trends.

Sure, PA's not generally a safe dem state but to call it a pure tossup over plenty of elections seems a tad off as well.  It's a definite Dem tilting state, that could change to a tossup but there's little evidence to suggest it has.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil:  "[Pennsylvania has been] a total tossup ... for plenty of elections"

actual results in PA:

2004:  Kerry by 2.5% (Bush won by a similar margin)
2000:  Gore by 4.2% (Gore won popular vote by less than 1%)
1996:  Clinton by 9.2% (Clinton won by 8.5%)
1992: Clinton by 9.0% (Clinton won by 5.6%)
1988:  Bush by 2.3% (Bush won by 7.6%)
1984:  Reagan by 7.3% (Reagan won by 18.2%)
1980:  Reagan by 7.1% (Reagan won by 9.7%)
1976:  Carter by 2.7% (Carter won by 2.1%)

In each of the last 8 elections PA has been more Democratic than the rest of the country.  The closest to the national average were 1976 and 1996, both Dem victories, and 1976 seemed to be a completely different world than today.  1996 may show where the peak for Dems is in PA at least at that time, regardles of national trends.

Sure, PA's not generally a safe dem state but to call it a pure tossup over plenty of elections seems a tad off as well.  It's a definite Dem tilting state, that could change to a tossup but there's little evidence to suggest it has.

And how does that mean that it wasn't considered a toss up for most of the fall before the election?