What happened in Mississippi?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Maybe the final Rasmussen poll was just accurate showing Wicker leading 54%-43%, but almost every other poll indicated a close result in the special election.  True, I predicted Wicker would defeat Musgrove 52%-47%, but I thought that both he and Obama would higher than they did.  Was it simply that blacks were not very organized in getting out the vote (Not that they didn't vote, but their overall effect wasn't maximized).  Or was the infusion of RNC cash enough?  Basically, why did Wicker beat Musgrove by much more than one would have thought?  As far as I know, no one predicted a 12% victory. 

[Meeker]

Any candidate that Harry supports is doomed to lose.

(And before you point out Childers, I'm pretty sure he originally supported whoever lost in the primary.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Musgrove got nearly the same number of votes Obama did. No crossover support.

[Aizen]

It's Mississippi.

[7,052,770]

I blame it on blacks.  If they would just care about something, they could make the state solid blue.  Also, Wicker's lies helped him a lot.

[memphis]

I blame it on blacks.  If they would just care about something, they could make the state solid blue.  .

  Blacks already vote monolithically Democratic. Their turnout could be higher, but there's no way they can vote in greater numbers than whites when they're less than 40% of the population.

[AndrewTX]

What happened in Mississippi? Mississippi happened.

[Eraserhead]

I blame it on blacks.  If they would just care about something, they could make the state solid blue.  Also, Wicker's lies helped him a lot.

Uh, no. This statement helps me to understand why you can't predict elections in your state.

[7,052,770]

I blame it on blacks.  If they would just care about something, they could make the state solid blue.  .

  Blacks already vote monolithically Democratic. Their turnout could be higher, but there's no way they can vote in greater numbers than whites when they're less than 40% of the population.

No, not by themselves, but as usual, their turnout was lower than the proportion of blacks in the state, and considering Musgrove's white crossover support, blacks were often simply too lazy to check and see who the Democratic senate candidate was (since the Party wasn't on the ballot).  Wicker's misleading appeals to black voters surely tricked many of them as well.
Blacks themselves aren't going to make the state blue in presidential elections yet, but could make it more competitive and help elect less liberal Democrats to statewide positions.

I blame it on blacks.  If they would just care about something, they could make the state solid blue.  Also, Wicker's lies helped him a lot.

Uh, no. This statement helps me to understand why you can't predict elections in your state.

If blacks turned out at the same percentage as whites and voted 98% for Musgrove like they did for Obama, Musgrove would've only needed 21.88% of the white vote to win.  I feel pretty confident that he got this.  Personal attacks unnecessary.

[minionofmidas]

How do votes total cast in the Presidential and Senate special compare?
In different counties?

Worth checking I suppose. Will report back to you.

[Lunar]

Harry, don't blacks already vote in at a higher rate than whites if you adjust for economic level?  So a black plumber making 60k a year will be more likely to vote than a white plumber making 60k a year.  I don't know about Mississippi but nationwide I believe that's true.

Why should they care about Musgrove, some conservative, blue-dog Democrat who won't even say he supports Barack Obama?  He's no Jim Martin over in Georgia.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Exit poll:

Whites (62%) - 82-18 Wicker
Blacks (33%) - 92-8 Musgrove

[minionofmidas]

Status report - first ten counties.

First row is presidential result (McCain first), second is Senate result (Wicker first), third is total votes Senate divided by total votes presidential, fourth is percentage Black (2006 estimate).

Adams     41-59 39-61 .957 56%
Alcorn      72-27 66-34 .967 11%
Amite       56-44 53-47 .953 43%
Attala       58-42 56-44 .964 40%
Benton     51-48 52-48 .951 34%
Bolivar      32-67 35-65 .939 65%
Calhoun    64-35 64-36 .974 29%
Carroll       66-34 64-36 .971 34%
Chickasaw 49-51 50-50 .969 42%
Choctaw    64-36 66-34 .957 31%

There is a correlation here, but it is slight. Certainly not sufficient to elect Musgrove methinks.

[Keystone Phil]

It was just one big conspiracy against Harry like usual.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I blame it on blacks. 

Proof that Harry is a proper black belt White.

[KEmperor]

I blame it on blacks. 

Proof that Harry is a proper black belt White.

I fail to see what the martial arts have to do with Harry's racist comments.

[Joe Republic]

I blame it on blacks.

Proof that Harry is a proper black belt White.

I fail to see what the martial arts have to do with Harry's racist comments.

You should hear his views on jEWjitsu...

[7,052,770]

Alright, ya got me.  I'm racist.  I guess that's all it is.  Nevermind that I drove around for months with 3 bumper stickers on my car for months, 2 of which were for black candidates, or that I share a room with a black person, or that I correct my friends when they use the n-word, or anything like that.  Apparently I'm racist for pointing out that African-Americans don't vote at as high of a rate as whites.

[Aizen]

Alright, ya got me.  I'm racist.  I guess that's all it is.  Nevermind that I drove around for months with 3 bumper stickers on my car for months, 2 of which were for black candidates, or that I share a room with a black person, or that I correct my friends when they use the n-word, or anything like that.  Apparently I'm racist for pointing out that African-Americans don't vote at as high of a rate as whites.

But you still can't blame the blacks. They are voting correctly (92% Musgrove). It's the white people in MS who are to blame.

[7,052,770]

Alright, ya got me.  I'm racist.  I guess that's all it is.  Nevermind that I drove around for months with 3 bumper stickers on my car for months, 2 of which were for black candidates, or that I share a room with a black person, or that I correct my friends when they use the n-word, or anything like that.  Apparently I'm racist for pointing out that African-Americans don't vote at as high of a rate as whites.

But you still can't blame the blacks. They are voting correctly (92% Musgrove). It's the white people in MS who are to blame.

Well I wasn't aware of the senatorial exit polls figure when I made the first post.  I made an error by making that statement with respect to the election.
However, that doesn't change the fact that in general, blacks could affect Mississippi elections than they do.

[Smash255]

Alright, ya got me.  I'm racist.  I guess that's all it is.  Nevermind that I drove around for months with 3 bumper stickers on my car for months, 2 of which were for black candidates, or that I share a room with a black person, or that I correct my friends when they use the n-word, or anything like that.  Apparently I'm racist for pointing out that African-Americans don't vote at as high of a rate as whites.

But you still can't blame the blacks. They are voting correctly (92% Musgrove). It's the white people in MS who are to blame.

Well I wasn't aware of the senatorial exit polls figure when I made the first post.  I made an error by making that statement with respect to the election.
However, that doesn't change the fact that in general, blacks could affect Mississippi elections than they do.

Its sad, but not really considering Obama got 11% of the white vote and Musgrove got 18%.   You just have to accept facts, that your state sucks.

[they don't love you like i love you]

A state could classify as a joke state if 81% of whites vote for a far right wing extremist over a guy who'd be a Republican in most states.

[Lunar]

Alright, ya got me.  I'm racist.  I guess that's all it is.  Nevermind that I drove around for months with 3 bumper stickers on my car for months, 2 of which were for black candidates, or that I share a room with a black person, or that I correct my friends when they use the n-word, or anything like that.  Apparently I'm racist for pointing out that African-Americans don't vote at as high of a rate as whites.

But you still can't blame the blacks. They are voting correctly (92% Musgrove). It's the white people in MS who are to blame.

Well I wasn't aware of the senatorial exit polls figure when I made the first post.  I made an error by making that statement with respect to the election.
However, that doesn't change the fact that in general, blacks could affect Mississippi elections than they do.

Probably calling them all lazy when they [probably] already vote above their economic white equivalents though...

[Beet]

Harry's not racist guys, he's just partisan and he lives in a disappointing state for partisans of his side. Cut him some slack.

[minionofmidas]

Alright, ya got me.  I'm racist.  I guess that's all it is.  Nevermind that I drove around for months with 3 bumper stickers on my car for months, 2 of which were for black candidates, or that I share a room with a black person, or that I correct my friends when they use the n-word, or anything like that.  Apparently I'm racist for pointing out that African-Americans don't vote at as high of a rate as whites.

But you still can't blame the blacks. They are voting correctly (92% Musgrove). It's the white people in MS who are to blame.

Well I wasn't aware of the senatorial exit polls figure when I made the first post.  I made an error by making that statement with respect to the election.
However, that doesn't change the fact that in general, blacks could affect Mississippi elections than they do.

Its sad, but not really considering Obama got 11% of the white vote and Musgrove got 18%.   You just have to accept facts, that your state sucks.

The state is fine. The Whites in it suck (present company excluded).