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  I may find out if Pawlenty is the running mate today...
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Author Topic: I may find out if Pawlenty is the running mate today...  (Read 22650 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #150 on: August 25, 2008, 10:22:21 pm »



Judging from this quote, Phil doesn't understand geography either.

Roll Eyes

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And?
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #151 on: August 25, 2008, 10:27:10 pm »

Ridge's proximity to Ohio is about as relevant as Pawlenty's to Wisconsin.

The main problem with the neighboring state advantage: Even if people know who someone is, that doesn't mean they have a strong opinion of them. My parents know who Pawlenty is (thanks mostly to WCCO talk radio when they're visiting down here), but that doesn't mean they can tell you anything about him other than that he's the governor of Minnesota or have an opinion strong enough of him to influence their vote either way.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #152 on: August 25, 2008, 10:28:14 pm »

Ridge is not palatable enough for conservatives and he leaves us open to attacks so therefore... we should go with Romney?  I don't follow your logic.  And while there might not be polls that show that Ridge would boost the ticket, there are defiantly ones that show that Romney would kill it.

The last poll I saw showed McCain Romney within the margin of error and McCain-Ridge getting blown out.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1546

Yeah, its a Zogby poll, but we don't have any ohter useful data.

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Why, because Ridge voted against funding a murderous terrorist organization... ?

You're starting to lose it.


You've defended his time at DHS before.  I don't buy it.  He was a disaster.  You're defending duct tape and plastic sheeting?  Who cares what state DuPont is located in?

Even if he wasn't a disaster, he was in Bush's cabinet.  That is toxic.  You're arguing that we need to pick Ridge to move to the middle, then you ignore the fact that he was one of the most recognizable members of the administration McCain has to take great pains to run away from.


Romney doesn't help enough in Michigan to carry it... not by a long shot.  He might know people there, but they are the wrong crowd to appeal to.  The people Ridge knows in PA and Ohio are grassroots types, who are real Reagan Democrats, Hillary voters, and would be enticed to come out of us if Ridge is on the ticket.  The only way we don't win PA with ridge is if McCain himself proves to be too unpalatable for voters here... and if Ridge is a move to the center, then good.  McCain has swung so far to the right now to risk being unpalatable to the country as a whole.  We need to play to the middle.  As go those other states... if we absolutely need Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire to win, then this thing is already over.  That's barely a third as many EV's as Ridge assists us with.

"Wrong crowd to appeal to", I don't even know what that means.

And the Romney name won Michigan in the primaries, so...

And you can write off New Hampshire, Nevada, and Colorado if you want but take any of those states from Bush in 2000 then Gore is President.

Palin is one o fthose choices that looks good on paper, but I don't think she gets us a whole lot... women will still likely go more for Obama, and feminists will not support Palin.  We don't need to bring in Alaska.  And, with all due respect (and I really mean that) her family situation makes it difficult to justify the long hours.  I would rank her as maybe #3 out of the top 10 serious choices, but I still think Ridge puts us at more an advantage.

No one is talking about dedicated feminists.  Suburban women, though, will like Palin.

Long hours as VP?  Does VP include duties I don't know about?  She's Governor of a state, I have to presume she's up to breaking ties in the Senate and greeting the girl scout who sold the most cookies.

If you mean the campaign hours, its a 60 day sprint.  She'll be fine with that.

For starters, the very same poll you just quoted put McCain/Rice on par with McCain/Romney... I rest my case.  There is no way McCain/Rice is a good ticket.
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TomC
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« Reply #153 on: August 25, 2008, 10:29:49 pm »

Ridge's proximity to Ohio is about as relevant as Pawlenty's to Wisconsin.

The main problem with the neighboring state advantage: Even if people know who someone is, that doesn't mean they have a strong opinion of them. My parents know who Pawlenty is (thanks mostly to WCCO talk radio when they're visiting down here), but that doesn't mean they can tell you anything about him other than that he's the governor of Minnesota or have an opinion strong enough of him to influence their vote either way.

You just described about half of the Presidential electorate.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #154 on: August 25, 2008, 10:46:08 pm »

Romney doesn't help enough in Michigan to carry it... not by a long shot.  He might know people there, but they are the wrong crowd to appeal to.  The people Ridge knows in PA and Ohio are grassroots types, who are real Reagan Democrats, Hillary voters, and would be enticed to come out of us if Ridge is on the ticket.  The only way we don't win PA with ridge is if McCain himself proves to be too unpalatable for voters here... and if Ridge is a move to the center, then good.  McCain has swung so far to the right now to risk being unpalatable to the country as a whole.  We need to play to the middle.  As go those other states... if we absolutely need Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire to win, then this thing is already over.  That's barely a third as many EV's as Ridge assists us with.

"Wrong crowd to appeal to", I don't even know what that means.

And the Romney name won Michigan in the primaries, so...

He won with about 39% of the vote in what was basically a 3-way race (only McCain, Romney, and Huckabee really contested the state).  And he outspent both McCain and Huckabee by about 3 or 4 to 1.  And of course this was a GOP primary, not a general election.  And according to exit polls, in pretty much every state (including MI), McCain cleaned up with self described moderates and GE swing voters, whereas Romney did better with GOP stalwarts....who are probably going to vote for McCain in the general election anyway.  I'd like to see evidence that Romney is actually popular with Michigan swing voters.
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TomC
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« Reply #155 on: August 25, 2008, 10:51:40 pm »

Romney doesn't help enough in Michigan to carry it... not by a long shot.  He might know people there, but they are the wrong crowd to appeal to.  The people Ridge knows in PA and Ohio are grassroots types, who are real Reagan Democrats, Hillary voters, and would be enticed to come out of us if Ridge is on the ticket.  The only way we don't win PA with ridge is if McCain himself proves to be too unpalatable for voters here... and if Ridge is a move to the center, then good.  McCain has swung so far to the right now to risk being unpalatable to the country as a whole.  We need to play to the middle.  As go those other states... if we absolutely need Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire to win, then this thing is already over.  That's barely a third as many EV's as Ridge assists us with.

"Wrong crowd to appeal to", I don't even know what that means.

And the Romney name won Michigan in the primaries, so...

He won with about 39% of the vote in what was basically a 3-way race (only McCain, Romney, and Huckabee really contested the state).  And he outspent both McCain and Huckabee by about 3 or 4 to 1.  And of course this was a GOP primary, not a general election.  And according to exit polls, in pretty much every state (including MI), McCain cleaned up with self described moderates and GE swing voters, whereas Romney did better with GOP stalwarts....who are probably going to vote for McCain in the general election anyway.  I'd like to see evidence that Romney is actually popular with Michigan swing voters.


Don't forget McCain saying the auto jobs were never coming back.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #156 on: August 25, 2008, 10:53:15 pm »

Plus how many of votes for Romney were just malicious Democrats crossing over?

The question is: How many in Michigan are planning on voting for Obama now, but love Romney so much they'll change their votes solely due to him on the ticket?
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J. J.
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« Reply #157 on: August 25, 2008, 10:53:42 pm »

Ridge's proximity to Ohio is about as relevant as Pawlenty's to Wisconsin.

The main problem with the neighboring state advantage: Even if people know who someone is, that doesn't mean they have a strong opinion of them. My parents know who Pawlenty is (thanks mostly to WCCO talk radio when they're visiting down here), but that doesn't mean they can tell you anything about him other than that he's the governor of Minnesota or have an opinion strong enough of him to influence their vote either way.

You don't get it.  About 20-25% of OH is in the Pittsburgh and Erie media markets, where Ridge has on TV since 1982.  Ads for his House seat, for Governor, news stories have been hitting this section for 25 years.

It's the same with Biden and the Phila media market.  He gets a boost from that.  Obama gets that boost.  It would be the same for Ridge in OH.
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jmfcst
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« Reply #158 on: August 25, 2008, 10:54:29 pm »

time to give this thread an enema:

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12th Doctor
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« Reply #159 on: August 25, 2008, 11:02:52 pm »
« Edited: August 25, 2008, 11:10:00 pm by Supersoulty »


The last poll I saw showed McCain Romney within the margin of error and McCain-Ridge getting blown out.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1546

Yeah, its a Zogby poll, but we don't have any ohter useful data.

Expanding on my last post, those numbers are low for Ridge, because the one thing most people remember about him right now is that Limbaugh and Hannity have been bashing him.  That will change.  The only reason Romney is ranked so high is, along with Rice, he has high name recognition.  That'll only make a difference in the short term.  Everyone else on the list polls exactly the same, because they are unknowns.  Compare this to a recent poll where Romney had the highest unfavorables of any GOP VP prospect.  John, your a brilliant strategic thinker, why are you buying into to this short term sh**t that won't matter by October?

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The Contra were a nasty bunch of people.  They killed Romero.  I can understand why someone might not be wild about supporting them.


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I addressed all of this before.  Not to sound dissmissive, but go back and read my earlier statements, I have nothing else to say.

My point was that if the Democrats are really dumn enough to go after "duct tape" it kinda puts Biden in an odd position, since I'm sure he doesn't want to piss off DuPont.  I doubt it would even come up.


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The kind of people that the Romney brand appeals to in Michigan, the people he is still really popular with (or rather his father is still popular with) are millionaires and business types who are supporting McCain anyway.  Ridge can help bring in working class voters.  Ridge is the epitome of working class and he has always had broad appeal to them... if you had ever lived in Erie then you would easily understand why.

As for the states in question... Odds are holding them or not holding them isn't going to be the difference between a win and loss.  If it is, than it is, but its less likely than PA and Ohio having the same effect.

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Doesn't the government of Alaska meet for, like three months total a year, or something like that?  The office of Vice President is more demanding, even if it isn't that glamorous.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #160 on: August 25, 2008, 11:15:29 pm »

BTW, John if we are gonna go for a female governor, why Palin... why not Linda Lingle?  I hope it has nothing to do with physical attractiveness.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #161 on: August 26, 2008, 11:46:16 am »

Bump

Smiley
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jmfcst
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« Reply #162 on: August 26, 2008, 12:25:14 pm »

BTW, John if we are gonna go for a female governor, why Palin... why not Linda Lingle?  I hope it has nothing to do with physical attractiveness.

when did you switch teams?
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The Duke
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« Reply #163 on: August 26, 2008, 03:38:54 pm »

Expanding on my last post, those numbers are low for Ridge, because the one thing most people remember about him right now is that Limbaugh and Hannity have been bashing him.  That will change.  The only reason Romney is ranked so high is, along with Rice, he has high name recognition.  That'll only make a difference in the short term.  Everyone else on the list polls exactly the same, because they are unknowns.  Compare this to a recent poll where Romney had the highest unfavorables of any GOP VP prospect.  John, your a brilliant strategic thinker, why are you buying into to this short term sh**t that won't matter by October?

It's not all name recognition.

Tom Ridge once had a nationally visible job as Homeland Security Secretary.

Folks know who he is.  Maybe not as fresh in their memory as Romney, but people know who he is and a mention of the words "color coded alert system" will surely jog their memory.

I think you are badly underestimating the negative effect of putting someone from this administration on the ticket.

if you had ever lived in Erie then you would easily understand why.

I get it, he does well in Erie.

The office of Vice President is more demanding, even if it isn't that glamorous.

I'd say its the reverse, Vice President is a much coveted post who's actual value in governing is very overrated.  People our age overrate the position because our main experience is the very involved Dick Cheney.  But most VPs are not former Chiefs of Staff in a White House with a weak Chief of Staff.

BTW, John if we are gonna go for a female governor, why Palin... why not Linda Lingle?  I hope it has nothing to do with physical attractiveness.

Does Linda Lingle have an 80% approval rating?

Does Lnda Lingle have a compelling personal story and family life?

Does Lingle redirect every question she gets asked to drilling for more oil?

Does Linda Lingle make pro-life activists want to knock on every door they can  for this ticket?

Is Lingle as personally engaging as Palin?

I say no to all of these.  This is why Palin>Lingle.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #164 on: August 27, 2008, 12:53:32 am »


No, you obviously don't get it, because you have no idea why he does so well in Erie.  he does so well because he a man who, despite his accomplishments, has no pretense about him.  He is a real member of the community, and people love him, because he is just like them.  He lives in a modest home, in a normal neighborhood, where anyone can go up to his door and have a reasonable expectation of seeing him in person (I did it once and got Michelle instead, but regardless).  He is still of the community even though the community thinks he is the greatest thing since sliced bread.  That kinda attitude wins votes, and it will fit in well with what McCain is trying to do with his campaign.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #165 on: August 27, 2008, 12:58:18 am »

Ridge is the kinda guy who shows up at a local campaign HQ in 2006, when there is nothing in it for him, just to talk to people, say hi, and let everyone know what a great job they are doing.  sadly he was leaving when I popped back in, but he stayed for two hours.  That kinda thing means alot to people, and only someone who is really in touch with people would bother to do something like that.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #166 on: August 27, 2008, 01:01:12 am »

Ridge is the kinda guy who shows up at a local campaign HQ in 2006, when there is nothing in it for him, just to talk to people, say hi, and let everyone know what a great job they are doing.  sadly he was leaving when I popped back in, but he stayed for two hours.  That kinda thing means alot to people, and only someone who is really in touch with people would bother to do something like that.

So very, very beautiful.
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Ritchie Valens
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« Reply #167 on: August 27, 2008, 01:05:40 am »
« Edited: August 27, 2008, 01:22:33 am by McCainforPrez »

Ridge is the kinda guy who shows up at a local campaign HQ in 2006, when there is nothing in it for him, just to talk to people, say hi, and let everyone know what a great job they are doing.  sadly he was leaving when I popped back in, but he stayed for two hours.  That kinda thing means alot to people, and only someone who is really in touch with people would bother to do something like that.

Chris, you need to chill out, pal. Things can change in a moment's notice...and it still may be possible for Romney, Ridge, or Pawlenty. I will tell you this...unless you go out and go door to door for John McCain...we may not only lose Pennsylvania...but we may lose it badly. Get out there for McCain...pass the flyers and root for our guy....no bones or balls attached!

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supersoulty
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« Reply #168 on: August 27, 2008, 01:19:49 am »

Ridge is the kinda guy who shows up at a local campaign HQ in 2006, when there is nothing in it for him, just to talk to people, say hi, and let everyone know what a great job they are doing.  sadly he was leaving when I popped back in, but he stayed for two hours.  That kinda thing means alot to people, and only someone who is really in touch with people would bother to do something like that.

Chris, you need to chill out, pal. Things can change in a moment's notice...and it still may be possible for Romney, Ridge, or Pawlenty. I will tell you this...unless you go out and go door to door for John McCain...we may not only lose Pennsylvania...but we may lose it badly. Get out there for McCain...pass the flyers and root for our guy....no bones or balls attached!



Why are you telling me to chill out?  There was nothing in what I said to even indicate that I am angry or worked up.

Anyway, I'm off o bed.  Obviously there is no converting the heathens.  And yes, Phil, I honestly do think it rather touching, as did the people there.
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The Duke
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« Reply #169 on: August 27, 2008, 03:49:06 am »

It sounds more and more like you were personally touched by your experience with Ridge and are thinking emotionally about this.

I concede that Ridge does well in Erie, and you refuse to let me agree with you.

I suggest Palin would be a good VP, you suggest its because she's pretty.

I produce data on McCain-Ridge compared with other tickets and you dismiss it out of hand.

Sigh.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #170 on: August 27, 2008, 05:49:07 am »

It sounds more and more like you were personally touched by your experience with Ridge and are thinking emotionally about this.

I concede that Ridge does well in Erie, and you refuse to let me agree with you.

My point is that it is hard not to be "personally touched" by Ridge once you actually have experience with him... I have considerably less than many people, and those who have more don't have anything bad to say about him either.

Again, when you say "I concede he does well in Erie" you belittle my argument.  His charm is transferable, and that's what makes him a good running-mate.

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I see your reasons for Palin and told you I place her high on the list, but not #1, and while there are better options I think we should take them if we can.

The poll numbers you produced are soft.  Most of the VP choices produced no effect on the people being asked, and of the four who were well known, two of the choices (Ridge and Lieberman) have been run down by the conservative media as of late.  I know why you don't put Joe on, but Ridge's positives have no where to go but up, once he is on the ticket.  Rice and Romney are well known, but we all know Rice is not a winning choice, and while Romney might give a tiny, temporary boost, his negatives are pretty high, compared to other selections, in other polls.  Romney is a very polarizing figure within the party.  I don't think those numbers from that one poll mean a whole lot.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #171 on: August 28, 2008, 04:05:59 pm »

So my friend's picture with Pawlenty made the local paper but most importantly...

There is a picture of Pawlenty with our state Attorney General, our city party chairman and the city party's general counsel. My right leg and shoulder snuck into the picture!


Wink

It will be especially awesome if Pawlenty was announced as the pick tomorrow. Making an appearance in the newspaper of an important swing/McCain favored, blue collar, Democratic area of an important swing state is a positive.
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cp
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« Reply #172 on: August 28, 2008, 04:13:14 pm »

My right leg and shoulder snuck into the picture!
Making an appearance in the newspaper of an important swing/McCain favored, blue collar, Democratic area of an important swing state is a positive.

Damn, those must be some legs you got there Wink
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #173 on: August 29, 2008, 01:44:14 pm »

...and Pawlenty whispered gently in my ear, "No, Phil. It's someone more attractive than I."



Wink


I did get some good news concerning Pawlenty today. It turns out I did make one of the other local papers. It's a picture of me, my state Attorney General and Pawlenty. The caption calls me a "young Republican."
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supersoulty
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« Reply #174 on: August 29, 2008, 02:01:12 pm »

Well, Phil... it was fun being a total waste of time, with you.
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