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  I may find out if Pawlenty is the running mate today...
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Author Topic: I may find out if Pawlenty is the running mate today...  (Read 22287 times)
Keystone Phil
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« Reply #50 on: August 25, 2008, 01:02:37 am »

Meanwhile, no one is going to vote for us because Pawlenty skipped Catechism to bang the cheerleader.

Dude, get a grip.

Quote
2)  Ridge got 58% of the vote with the 3rd Party candidate stealing votes from him.  Pawlenty got 44% of the vote with the 3rd Party candidate stealing votes from the other guy.  Ridges margin of victory was 26%.  Pawlenty's was >1%.

First of all, stop comparing PA to MN for a Gubernatorial race especially in 2006. Secondly, Pawlenty received 47%, not 44%.

Quote
3)  Phil, you know better.  I know people in the real world who are well connected in state politics.  They are all of the same opinion as myself, to varying degrees and I know what I know, because I know it... I'm not guessing.  Even were that not the case, JJ knows what he is talking about.

Good for them. That doesn't mean they are correct and you're a dope if you think "everyone" agrees with you.


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J. J.
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« Reply #51 on: August 25, 2008, 01:09:11 am »

You've made the point well that if we were casting the Vice President in a movie, Ridge would beat Pawlenty.

Don't cite Ridge's experience asa  Congressman.  He was an awful Congressman.

For the nuclear freeze and against aid to Contras?  I'm sorry, that doesn't do it for me.

If he delivers PA I'll be happy, but I can't say I'd be excioted about Tom Ridge as Vice President or heir apparent.


Ridge has this national advantage.  Obama/Biden had been hitting McCain on being a "not the same" and too tied to the right wing.  Ridge explodes that myth.  It helps stop an avenue of attack.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #52 on: August 25, 2008, 01:09:49 am »

You've made the point well that if we were casting the Vice President in a movie, Ridge would beat Pawlenty.

Don't cite Ridge's experience asa  Congressman.  He was an awful Congressman.

For the nuclear freeze and against aid to Contras?  I'm sorry, that doesn't do it for me.

If he delivers PA I'll be happy, but I can't say I'd be excioted about Tom Ridge as Vice President or heir apparent.


Ridge has this national advantage.  Obama/Biden had been hitting McCain on being a "not the same" and too tied to the right wing.  Ridge explodes that myth.  It helps stop an avenue of attack.

It also directly ties McCain to the Bush administration. Just pointing out the obvious.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #53 on: August 25, 2008, 01:12:59 am »

Meanwhile, no one is going to vote for us because Pawlenty skipped Catechism to bang the cheerleader.

Dude, get a grip.

Quote
2)  Ridge got 58% of the vote with the 3rd Party candidate stealing votes from him.  Pawlenty got 44% of the vote with the 3rd Party candidate stealing votes from the other guy.  Ridges margin of victory was 26%.  Pawlenty's was >1%.

First of all, stop comparing PA to MN for a Gubernatorial race especially in 2006. Secondly, Pawlenty received 47%, not 44%.

Quote
3)  Phil, you know better.  I know people in the real world who are well connected in state politics.  They are all of the same opinion as myself, to varying degrees and I know what I know, because I know it... I'm not guessing.  Even were that not the case, JJ knows what he is talking about.

Good for them. That doesn't mean they are correct and you're a dope if you think "everyone" agrees with you.




1)  Phil, I have a grip.  I am telling you, this is what other people are going to be thinking.  I really don't care if the guy left.  It's a non-issue to me.  It's gonna be a big issue once it gets out to hardline Catholics.

2)  Sorry, I was looking at 2002.  Eitherway, what else do I have to compare it to?  The point is made, Ridge is far stronger, electorally, in his home state than Pawlenty.  If Pawlenty doesn't bring in his home state, or any state, then what in the Hell is the point of having him on the ticket?  For morale?  Is he gonna give us a pat on the back and a "good job"?  Ridge strengthens our hand in PA and Ohio, and might even help us soften our image and pull in some other voters... not to mention he would be a capable President... not that Pawlenty wouldn't be... but I haven't seen the evidence.

Ridge is a bulldozer, Pawlenty is a retaining wall.  One of them move the earth, the other just holds it in place.  If we are gonna win, we need a mover.

3)  the only "serious" figures I have heard say otherwise are all people from out of state who only get a voice because they own a microphone.  Who have you been talking to?  This isn't a challenge, I just want to know, so I at least know who to compare notes with.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #54 on: August 25, 2008, 01:14:05 am »

You've made the point well that if we were casting the Vice President in a movie, Ridge would beat Pawlenty.

Don't cite Ridge's experience asa  Congressman.  He was an awful Congressman.

For the nuclear freeze and against aid to Contras?  I'm sorry, that doesn't do it for me.

If he delivers PA I'll be happy, but I can't say I'd be excioted about Tom Ridge as Vice President or heir apparent.


Ridge has this national advantage.  Obama/Biden had been hitting McCain on being a "not the same" and too tied to the right wing.  Ridge explodes that myth.  It helps stop an avenue of attack.

It also directly ties McCain to the Bush administration. Just pointing out the obvious.

That's going to be really hard to avoid regardless.  And of all the Bush Admin figures of prominence, ridge is probably the most detached.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #55 on: August 25, 2008, 01:16:32 am »

Phil, if you get the answer directly out of him, I'll buy you a car (sometime when I have money, like 20 years in the future).

Yeah, he's a hit and run poster.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #56 on: August 25, 2008, 01:18:32 am »


 Eitherway, what else do I have to compare it to?  The point is made, Ridge is far stronger, electorally, in his home state than Pawlenty.  If Pawlenty doesn't bring in his home state, or any state, then what in the Hell is the point of having him on the ticket?  For morale?  Is he gonna give us a pat on the back and a "good job"?  Ridge strengthens our hand in PA and Ohio, and might even help us soften our image and pull in some other voters... not to mention he would be a capable President... not that Pawlenty wouldn't be... but I haven't seen the evidence.

I doubt people care about Ridge that much anymore, Super.

Having a running mate isn't also about bringing in your homestate. Are you really that dense? Was Obama looking to lock up Delaware?

He satisfies conservatives and is young. Ridge has the charisma of my socks and is a problem for the base. Deal with it.

Quote
Ridge is a bulldozer, Pawlenty is a retaining wall.  One of them move the earth, the other just holds it in place.  If we are gonna win, we need a mover.

Oh, yes. I'm just shaking in fear when I see the big, bad Tom Ridge!  Roll Eyes

Quote
Who have you been talking to?  This isn't a challenge, I just want to know, so I at least know who to compare notes with.

Plenty of people that don't think "being from PA" is enough to swing a state. Ultimately, McCain wins or loses PA on his own.


I hate to say this, Super, but I think a lot of this is about blind geographical loyalty on your part since you and Ridge are from the same area. I just don't think he's as connected with those people as he once was. I won't be distraught if the guy is McCain's pick but it is a strategic mistake.


You've made the point well that if we were casting the Vice President in a movie, Ridge would beat Pawlenty.

Don't cite Ridge's experience asa  Congressman.  He was an awful Congressman.

For the nuclear freeze and against aid to Contras?  I'm sorry, that doesn't do it for me.

If he delivers PA I'll be happy, but I can't say I'd be excioted about Tom Ridge as Vice President or heir apparent.


Ridge has this national advantage.  Obama/Biden had been hitting McCain on being a "not the same" and too tied to the right wing.  Ridge explodes that myth.  It helps stop an avenue of attack.

It also directly ties McCain to the Bush administration. Just pointing out the obvious.

That's going to be really hard to avoid regardless.  And of all the Bush Admin figures of prominence, ridge is probably the most detached.

Not with Pawlenty.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #57 on: August 25, 2008, 01:22:29 am »

To answer your last point... oh really?

Back in 2002 Pawlenty was preparing to run for the Senate, but at literally the last hour, Cheney calls Pawlenty and says, "we have this other guy for Senate, we want you to run for governor," and Pawlenty says "yes, sir." And changes his plans.  Cheney says "jump" and Pawlenty says "how high."  Is Tim Pawlenty his own man, or is he George Bush's?

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #58 on: August 25, 2008, 01:23:55 am »

To answer your last point... oh really?

Back in 2002 Pawlenty was preparing to run for the Senate, but at literally the last hour, Cheney calls Pawlenty and says, "we have this other guy for Senate, we want you to run for governor," and Pawlenty says "yes, sir." And changes his plans.  Cheney says "jump" and Pawlenty says "how high."  Is Tim Pawlenty his own man, or is he George Bush's?

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

LOL

You really think that will be used in an ad, let alone be considered effective?

Ok, Super. Ok.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #59 on: August 25, 2008, 01:27:02 am »

To answer your last point... oh really?

Back in 2002 Pawlenty was preparing to run for the Senate, but at literally the last hour, Cheney calls Pawlenty and says, "we have this other guy for Senate, we want you to run for governor," and Pawlenty says "yes, sir." And changes his plans.  Cheney says "jump" and Pawlenty says "how high."  Is Tim Pawlenty his own man, or is he George Bush's?

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

LOL

You really think that will be used in an ad, let alone be considered effective?

Ok, Super. Ok.

I think that, in 15 seconds, I just came up with the outline for the most devastating ad of the campaign, and if you don't think they would run it, and if you don't think it would be effective, then you don't know nothin' jack.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #60 on: August 25, 2008, 01:31:11 am »

To answer your last point... oh really?

Back in 2002 Pawlenty was preparing to run for the Senate, but at literally the last hour, Cheney calls Pawlenty and says, "we have this other guy for Senate, we want you to run for governor," and Pawlenty says "yes, sir." And changes his plans.  Cheney says "jump" and Pawlenty says "how high."  Is Tim Pawlenty his own man, or is he George Bush's?

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

LOL

You really think that will be used in an ad, let alone be considered effective?

Ok, Super. Ok.

I think that, in 15 seconds, I just came up with the outline for the most devastating ad of the campaign, and if you don't think they would run it, and if you don't think it would be effective, then you don't know nothin' jack.

Most devastating ad of the campaign? Are you being serious?

Don't pat yourself on the back too hard, Super. I'm sure the Obama campaign would love to hire you for campaign ad design.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #61 on: August 25, 2008, 01:45:42 am »

To answer your last point... oh really?

Back in 2002 Pawlenty was preparing to run for the Senate, but at literally the last hour, Cheney calls Pawlenty and says, "we have this other guy for Senate, we want you to run for governor," and Pawlenty says "yes, sir." And changes his plans.  Cheney says "jump" and Pawlenty says "how high."  Is Tim Pawlenty his own man, or is he George Bush's?

I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.

LOL

You really think that will be used in an ad, let alone be considered effective?

Ok, Super. Ok.

I think that, in 15 seconds, I just came up with the outline for the most devastating ad of the campaign, and if you don't think they would run it, and if you don't think it would be effective, then you don't know nothin' jack.

Most devastating ad of the campaign? Are you being serious?

Don't pat yourself on the back too hard, Super. I'm sure the Obama campaign would love to hire you for campaign ad design.

I thought of that in 15 seconds.  If I thought of it, chances are 15 guys at the DNC will have a spot ready to go by the time the Convention rolls around.  And that's when I would run it.  At the time people care the most about the ticket as a whole.  Run it on all the networks, in every battle ground state right before Pawlenty is about to make his big introduction to the country.  and then if McCain tries to go after Biden in anyway, then just run it again, and again, and again... and contrast it with McCain's claims about Obama not being able to lead.  Talk about McCain's claims to be a maverick, with this guy in the co-pilot's chair?  Then wait for the VP debate and watch Biden throw Pawlenty around like a rag doll.

The effects could be brutal, and we lose support, credibility and valuable campaign time trying to fix our mistake.  Of course, it would clear by October, but by that time, we will have lost so much speed, that we'll just be like that guy who is chasing down the ball carrier heading towards an open end zone making one last pathetic lunge so we don't look like we were beat... the enevitable result being that we end up flat on our faces, while Obama dances in the end zone.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #62 on: August 25, 2008, 01:47:47 am »



I thought of that in 15 seconds.  If I thought of it, chances are 15 guys at the DNC will have a spot ready to go by the time the Convention rolls around.  And that's when I would run it.  At the time people care the most about the ticket as a whole.  Run it on all the networks, in every battle ground state right before Pawlenty is about to make his big introduction to the country.  and then if McCain tries to go after Biden in anyway, then just run it again, and again, and again... and contrast it with McCain's claims about Obama not being able to lead.  Talk about McCain's claims to be a maverick, with this guy in the co-pilot's chair?  Then wait for the VP debate and watch Biden throw Pawlenty around like a rag doll.

And people still won't care. It would be weaker than Obama's "Seven houses" ads.

You really must be joking if you think that that ad would be devastating. You are usually all gloom and doom if things don't go your way but this is just extreme.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #63 on: August 25, 2008, 02:01:59 am »



I thought of that in 15 seconds.  If I thought of it, chances are 15 guys at the DNC will have a spot ready to go by the time the Convention rolls around.  And that's when I would run it.  At the time people care the most about the ticket as a whole.  Run it on all the networks, in every battle ground state right before Pawlenty is about to make his big introduction to the country.  and then if McCain tries to go after Biden in anyway, then just run it again, and again, and again... and contrast it with McCain's claims about Obama not being able to lead.  Talk about McCain's claims to be a maverick, with this guy in the co-pilot's chair?  Then wait for the VP debate and watch Biden throw Pawlenty around like a rag doll.

And people still won't care. It would be weaker than Obama's "Seven houses" ads.

You really must be joking if you think that that ad would be devastating. You are usually all gloom and doom if things don't go your way but this is just extreme.

I'm not moping.  I know we can win.  And I know we will win with Ridge.

At best, Pawlenty gets us no where we wouldn't be anyway.  At worst he totally undermines the message of McCain's campaign.  A month ago, I said differently, but that was before McCain made it clear that experience and character won't be issues, they will be the issues.  and he was destroying Obama with it.  Hence why Obama ultimately felt the need to pick Biden.  But that in and of itself was a miscalculation, because it went against the central theme of Change, youth and vigor.  He's opted to fight us where we are strongest, and we can beat him to death here.  Problem is, if we go with Pawlenty, then we weaken ourselves here.  He brought the fight where we wanted it.  We should exploit it.

Picking Ridge is a proactive move, at a time when Obama is reacting to us.  Picking Pawlenty is a purely reactionary move.  And I don't see what it gets us.  With Ridge, we can stick with our stregths will still moving forward.  Ridge does things for us that Pawlenty can't.  Its as simple as that.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #64 on: August 25, 2008, 02:06:48 am »

Listen, we really over analyze the affect of the running mates outside of the base vote. Ultimately, people don't care much. Obama is the one that needs to fight McCain when it comes to experience. It's not going to boil down to Biden vs. whoever our pick is.

I also don't get how Ridge is that strong when it comes to standing up to Biden. Ridge doesn't match Biden's attitude. We're probably going to "lose" the debate to Biden especially if we try to play his game. He's the master. I say we not worry about that since the debate won't be a big deal anyway.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #65 on: August 25, 2008, 02:13:33 am »

This thread is painful.  Phil is mopping the floor with the counterarguments.

He looks like a sure loss.  I don't care how nice he is.  McCain has invested way too much into hammering Obama for inexperience to then turn to someone who has none.  It would be suicide to do that now.

Two terms as governor beats any Senator for executive experience.  (Bayh was governor before Senator.  Not Biden.)

I think that, in 15 seconds, I just came up with the outline for the most devastating ad of the campaign, and if you don't think they would run it, and if you don't think it would be effective, then you don't know nothin' jack.

Img
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supersoulty
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« Reply #66 on: August 25, 2008, 02:15:53 am »

Listen, we really over analyze the affect of the running mates outside of the base vote. Ultimately, people don't care much. Obama is the one that needs to fight McCain when it comes to experience. It's not going to boil down to Biden vs. whoever our pick is.

I also don't get how Ridge is that strong when it comes to standing up to Biden. Ridge doesn't match Biden's attitude. We're probably going to "lose" the debate to Biden especially if we try to play his game. He's the master. I say we not worry about that since the debate won't be a big deal anyway.

This one is going to make a difference.  Electorally, strategically, tactically and personally, Ridge is the better choice.  I have nothing against Pawlenty, other than I don't see what he brings, other than the negative stuff.  Most people don't note much what a VP brings to a ticket, but they note what it takes away... and Pawlenty shuts alot of doors, including those that bring us the clearest path to victory.  It will matter, because even if the attacks don't reach to many people, it only takes 2% nationally to change the whole thing and put it out of reach.

I had no delusions that I was going to convince you, but I've made my case.

On my list, Pawlenty ranks just above Romney and below Ron Paul.  Put him in the over a few more years and see what we get, but not this year... I don't see it.  And the other choices are all frought with potential hazards as well.
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HardRCafé
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« Reply #67 on: August 25, 2008, 02:17:56 am »

below Ron Paul.

I'm just gonna let that hang there.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #68 on: August 25, 2008, 02:22:40 am »

I have nothing against Pawlenty, other than I don't see what he brings, other than the negative stuff. 

I've stated this several times now: He's young and he satisfies the base. He is the choice that avoids problems.

Also, I don't know what you're getting at when you say Ridge is "personally" a better choice. Besides his connections to his home area, who is he connecting with that well? The man often seems detached. Maybe he connects with the old time Catholic crowd (despite his view on an issue that means a lot to them) but, again, I think we're getting them anyway.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #69 on: August 25, 2008, 02:26:23 am »

This thread is painful.  Phil is mopping the floor with the counterarguments.

He looks like a sure loss.  I don't care how nice he is.  McCain has invested way too much into hammering Obama for inexperience to then turn to someone who has none.  It would be suicide to do that now.

Two terms as governor beats any Senator for executive experience.  (Bayh was governor before Senator.  Not Biden.)

I think that, in 15 seconds, I just came up with the outline for the most devastating ad of the campaign, and if you don't think they would run it, and if you don't think it would be effective, then you don't know nothin' jack.

Img


1) Ummm... what?  First off, I made no claims about Bayh/Biden one way or the other, so you must truly be a dreaming things up.  Secondly, I'm sorry, but what was your point... Ridge has the experience as governor and in congress, and as a cabinet member, which was the topic of conversation.  Whatever you were doing before you stumbled in here, sleep it off.  Thirdly, ummm... no, it really doesn't.  Every US Senator is like their own mini-executive branch.  I could see saying that two terms as governor of California trumps two terms as Senator of Delaware, but lets get some perspective here.

2) I respect Phil's arguments, even if I don't agree with them.  I expect others to attempt to return the favor.  In otherwords, f**ktard isn't becoming of you.  You should take it off and put your normal attire back on.
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supersoulty
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« Reply #70 on: August 25, 2008, 02:31:32 am »

I have nothing against Pawlenty, other than I don't see what he brings, other than the negative stuff. 

I've stated this several times now: He's young and he satisfies the base. He is the choice that avoids problems.

Also, I don't know what you're getting at when you say Ridge is "personally" a better choice. Besides his connections to his home area, who is he connecting with that well? The man often seems detached. Maybe he connects with the old time Catholic crowd (despite his view on an issue that means a lot to them) but, again, I think we're getting them anyway.

No, all that stuff you mentioned is covered in strategy, electoral, and tactics... what I am saying about the personally is that Ridge has a way better background and personal narrative and he comes off stronger.  And I'm sorry, Phil, I do think the whole episode in 2002 I brought up with Pawlenty changing his plans round the Bush White House will be brought up.  And when I say "devastating" I don't mean nuclear bomb, but it will slow down the campaign and chain it to Bush even more... certainly more than ridge would.
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« Reply #71 on: August 25, 2008, 02:33:47 am »

Ummm... what?  First off, I made no claims about Bayh/Biden one way or the other, so you must truly be a dreaming things up.

Your point was that a two-term governor has no experience, "none."  I brought up Bayh because he was a two-term governor before he was a Senator, so he has executive and legislative experience.  Biden has never been anything but a Senator and has no executive experience whatsoever.

But then you brought up Ron Paul, which is its own variant of Godwin's Law.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #72 on: August 25, 2008, 02:36:20 am »

Ridge has a way better background and personal narrative and he comes off stronger.

You basically argued that Ridge had a bigger jockstrap in high school. Who cares?


 
Quote
And I'm sorry, Phil, I do think the whole episode in 2002 I brought up with Pawlenty changing his plans round the Bush White House will be brought up.  And when I say "devastating" I don't mean nuclear bomb, but it will slow down the campaign and chain it to Bush even more... certainly more than ridge would.

You did mean nuclear bomb. You said it would be "the most devastating ad of the campaign."

How is God's name can the connection of Cheney asking Pawlenty to run for Governor instead of Senator be more of a chain to the Bush administration than a man who served in that administration?

These arguments aren't even making sense. I can respect a different opinion on the matter but saying that Ridge isn't as connected to the administration as Pawlenty is is outrageous.
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« Reply #73 on: August 25, 2008, 02:46:26 am »

Ummm... what?  First off, I made no claims about Bayh/Biden one way or the other, so you must truly be a dreaming things up.

Your point was that a two-term governor has no experience, "none."  I brought up Bayh because he was a two-term governor before he was a Senator, so he has executive and legislative experience.  Biden has never been anything but a Senator and has no executive experience whatsoever.

But then you brought up Ron Paul, which is its own variant of Godwin's Law.

You don't need to be an "executive" to have leadership experience (I don't recall having used the word "executive" once, unless I used it to refer to Ridge vs Pawlenty, but I don't think I did) and if you honestly think that a six year governor of Minnesota has more experience in government than the longest serving member of the US Senate, then you either drastically underestimate the job of US Senator, or you are nuts.  And the reason I brought up Ron Paul as a superior choice, is because, at least if we got him we would get the money and the fan club. 

Pawlenty might have an organization in his one state, but doesn't do us any good if we won't win there anyway.  And Pawlenty is an unknown outside Minnesota... and I mean a real unknown, not like someone who you might have heard of.

Ridge's base of power is larger than the state of PA, but even if it weren't, ability to carry PA does alot for us.  And Phil has never been to Erie, so I think he underestimates how fanatical people are up there, especially for a favorite son... and Ridge is the favorite son.  Horace Greeley once said that the primary passtime in Erie is politics... not much has changed in 140 years.  Ridge would produce a boost all over the state, but the tidalwave coming out of the Northwest would be hard for Obama to beat... and I an not kidding when I say 75% at least from that part of the state... its not exaggeration, its not drama, it would be a reality.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #74 on: August 25, 2008, 02:53:54 am »

And the reason I brought up Ron Paul as a superior choice, is because, at least if we got him we would get the money and the fan club.

I am done taking this seriously. Completely finished. 
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