what would happen if JFK is not murdered

[J. J.]

LBJ was planning to leave the ticket in 1964.  It would not have been Kennedy/Johnson in 1964.  Any GOP candidate would have been stronger without Johnson on the ticket and without the sympathy generated for Johnson due to the Kennedy assassination.

Further, because there was no sympathy vote, some other Republicans might have entered the race.

There are three questions I'd ask about 1964:  1.  Who is the Democratic VP nominee.  2.  Who is on the GOP ticket.

Third is a crucial question.  If neither group is segregationist, which was quite possible, would a southern candidate step up, e.g. Thrumond or Wallace.

If Kennedy doesn't take any "Nixon 1960" states and loses his hold in the South, the election might have gone to the House, which would have more Republican.

My might have seen Wallace's 1968 dream in 1964, no civil rights action.

[J. J.]

If with a 10% swing from the real election to Goldwater he would only pick up another 6 states.
1. Florida 14 elec votes
2. Idaho 4 elec votes
3. Kansas 7 elec votes
4.Nebraska 5 elec votes
5. Utah 4 elec votes
6. Virginia 12 elec votes
A total of 46 elec votes which would give 98 elec votes in  total and an extra 3 million votes.

Without an assassination Goldwater might not have won the nomination.  If there was a candidate that would win Nixon's 1960 states and the southern states didn't go to Kennedy, 1964 is not a landslide and Kennedy's re-election is far from certain.

Without Johnson on the ticket, those southern states that Kennedy won in 1960 are lost in 1964.

[J. J.]

There are three questions I'd ask about 1964:  1.  Who is the Democratic VP nominee.  2.  Who is on the GOP ticket.

1. Apparently Terry Sanford was on the top of Kennedy's list.   2. Hard to say, but Rockefeller seems the most likely. As for his running mate, your guess is as good as mine.

That may not have been enough in the South.  Tensions, by this point, were rising.

What I'm looking at is a Republican that does as well as Nixon (who might be Rockefeller) and a segregationist candidate, either taking enough votes from Kennedy to though the South to Nixon, or get enough EV's to throw the election into the House.

I was wondering if Dirkson or Scranton (who did run) might emerge as a dark horse.

[J. J.]

I think a 1964 election in those terms would have been closer, and of course in the "Goldwater rules the world idea" by PBrunsel who knows what would have happened if tales of Kennedys private life broke out or if the fact he covered up his Addison`s illness.

One scandel that everybody is forgetting is the role the US played in overthow of South Vietnamese President Diem.  If even some of the documents had been released, it could have been exceptionally damaging.