ICR New Poll - Bush - 48.2, Kerry 47.3

[The Vorlon]

Bush up 11 among independents and only 1 overall.  I don't buy that one.

You are 100% correct

The pollsters are having a bad week.

The village idiots at Time and Newsweek have Bush +11, and now ICR says it's tied.

I would love to see more of this ICR poll, but something is just plain wrong.

[The Vorlon]

If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

No way to really know

If we ballpark Republicans at 90% / 5% for Bush

and

If we ballpark Democrats at 85% / 10% for Kerry

then

This would imply a party ID breakout of

Dems 39%
GOP 32%
Indy 29%

+/- a huge magin of error

Hey... it's one more poll