ICR New Poll - Bush - 48.2, Kerry 47.3 (user search)
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  ICR New Poll - Bush - 48.2, Kerry 47.3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: ICR New Poll - Bush - 48.2, Kerry 47.3  (Read 5978 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« on: September 08, 2004, 07:58:30 PM »

If the independents are swinging to Bush by double digit, you'd have to assume either:

1) Bush is losing a lot more Republicans than Kerry is losing Democrats.  That I don't believe for a second.

or

2) There are a hell of a lot more Democrats in this poll than Republicans.  I pick door #2.

No way to really know

If we ballpark Republicans at 90% / 5% for Bush

and

If we ballpark Democrats at 85% / 10% for Kerry

then

This would imply a party ID breakout of

Dems 39%
GOP 32%
Indy 29%

+/- a huge magin of error Smiley

Hey... it's one more poll Smiley



My figures agree with yours.

This approaches a CBS or LA Times poll for loading.
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