Diaego Hotline Tracking Poll thread

[Eraserhead]

Thursday - 18 September:

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 42% (nc)

Today's 4 tracking polls show a 47.8 - 44.3 advantage for Obama.

If we include R2000's sample from just yesterday (50-42 Obama) it would be 48-44 for Obama.

I look foward to the state polling catching up.

If the movement is real movement, then the state polling will catch up.  You read my comment earlier in the Rasmussen poll thread. Re-read it again. 

Nah, I'm good, fella.

[Sam Spade]

Friday, September 17, 2008
Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 44% (+2)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091908data.pdf

[Lief 🗽]

Friday, September 17, 2008
Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 44% (+2)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091908data.pdf

Er... outlier much?

[Sam Spade]

Friday, September 17, 2008
Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 44% (+2)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091908data.pdf

Er... outlier much?

Every poll has to be taken seriously in a way, bro, even if you or I think of them as junk. 

I'm pretty sure the race, right now, is Obama +3, but I want to see where it settles by next week (kinda like what I said last week when it was McCain +3).

[Rowan]

Its the two point move to McCain under the economy question(Now 44-41 Obama, was 44-39 Obama), that caused this bump for McCain. Seems to contradict Gallup who says this has helped Obama.

[Sam Spade]

Its the two point move to McCain under the economy question(Now 44-41 Obama, was 44-39 Obama), that caused this bump for McCain. Seems to contradict Gallup who says this has helped Obama.

Actually, I think it's more that the Monday sample (which appeared to be strongly Obama) dropped off, and for some reason the other samples didn't show as strong of a movement afterwards.  Of course, with only 300 a day sample, the movement may be quite larger than I'm interpreting.

[Democratic Hawk]

Its the two point move to McCain under the economy question(Now 44-41 Obama, was 44-39 Obama), that caused this bump for McCain. Seems to contradict Gallup who says this has helped Obama.

However, among voters for whom the economy is the top issue (47%), Obama leads McCain 49-39

Dave

[Umengus]

Friday, September 17, 2008
Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 44% (+2)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091908data.pdf

Er... outlier much?

Rasmussen says +- the same. And Ras stays the best. But if Rasm hadnt change his party id, it's clear that Obama would be +2 or +3

It's clear also that Obama has had a big bounce with the wall street problem (and the McCain inaptitude to react correctly). But the situation recovers (for now) and I think that the obama advantage will erode.

[Keystone Phil]

Friday, September 17, 2008
Obama 45% (-1)
McCain 44% (+2)

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlineTracker091908data.pdf

Er... outlier much?

How is this the outlier? Rasmussen has it tied and this shows Obama up one. If anything, Gallup (Obama up five) is the outlier.

[Lief 🗽]

Gallup, Rasmussen and Research2k all showed good nights for Obama yesterday.

[Sam Spade]

Saturday, September 18, 2008
Obama 45% (nc)
McCain 44% (nc)

[Umengus]

Party id:

dem: 41%
rep: 36%
ind: 19 %

dem + 5, +- like Rasmussen.

[Sam Spade]

Sunday, September 20, 2008
Obama 45% (nc)
McCain 44% (nc)

[Gustaf]

They've stopped polling over the weekend haven't they?

[Wiz in Wis]

Little birdie over at Dkos says that todays numbers will be Obama 47 - McCain 42. They supported this claim with a pdf link that wasnt a pdf... but take it as you will.

[Sam Spade]

That's what Marc Ambinder says.

[Tender Branson]

[elcorazon]

looks like mccain's getting that weekend bump again.

[Eraserhead]

Victory via joke poll. On to November.

[minionofmidas]

looks like mccain's getting that weekend bump again.

Wait - are you saying that's the three-day? Not just the one-day figure (giving 46-43 for the three-day)?

[Brittain33]

Obama 47% (nc)
McCain 43% (+1)

[J. J.]

looks like mccain's getting that weekend bump again.

Except, of course, it's Obama's weekend bounce on Gallup.

[Wiz in Wis]

Political Wire is reporting that Obama will have a 6 point lead in todays numbers... his biggest in the poll to date

[Eraserhead]

Political Wire is reporting that Obama will have a 6 point lead in todays numbers... his biggest in the poll to date

Well,he did have a six point lead in the first ever sample.

[Wiz in Wis]

Political Wire is reporting that Obama will have a 6 point lead in todays numbers... his biggest in the poll to date

Well,he did have a six point lead in the first ever sample.

was that a one day sample?