How reliable are Rasmussen

[nomorelies]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

It acknowleges the bounce but are they reliable. How much are they out by?

[Reds4]

Not very. The daily tracking poll does quite a bit of bouncing. In my opinion, don't read too heavily into their numbers, though sometimes rasmussen can show the trend correctly.
    Regarding today's Rasmussen, Kerry has closed to within .7 points of Bush. I'm not sure whether this is due to the 1,000 dead in Iraq, Bush's service being questioned again, or just a bad night of polling. Vorlon, any information on whether one of those three nights went to Kerry by quite a bit or not? Thanks.

[nomorelies]

I am doing exactly what Republicans do now.

Anything that criticises bush im going to overreact. Simply because i have realised that Republican voters are going against ther beliefs in government to vote for a guy that does the opposite.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlon, any information on whether one of those three nights went to Kerry by quite a bit or not? Thanks.

Bush won the Sept 7th sample by about 3%
The last two samples have been within 1% of tied.

These results are quite skewed however.

A very GOP heavy sample just rolled off, while a strongly DEm sample just rolled on.

In the aftermath of a convention, self identified party ID is quite volitile and polls which hard weight often do some very strange things.

Ignore Rasmussen for about a week till all the party ID froth settles down.

Based upon shifts in his Congressional Ballot (which I am using +/- as a proxy for party ID - the two usually track very closely) I think Rasmussen is likely weighting away maybe 3% of the Bush lead.

If you look at what happened just after the Kerry convention, the same thing happened - Kerry had a brief "blip" then as party ID shifted a bit Dem for a while Rasmussen had the race even again, followed by a Kerry rise as party ID renormalized.

I expect Bush will do the same.  Expect +/- parity for about a week, then a slow rise to Bush +4 or so in Bot poll.

(unless I am totally wrong... which is possible )

[nomorelies]

Vorlan - are you voting for Michael Badnarik? OR A CLOSET BUSHY

[A18]

Seeing as Alabama isn't exactly a battleground state, I'm sure he'll vote for whoever he wants.

[MODU]

I use Rasmussen for seeing long term trends, just like with any poll.  The specific number doesn't mean much, but if the numbers keep rising or falling, then that tells me how a candidate or an issue is doing.

[Nym90]

Seeing as Alabama isn't exactly a battleground state, I'm sure he'll vote for whoever he wants.

The Vorlon is from Alberta, not Alabama.

[A18]

lol, didn't realize that...the avatar looks like Alabama.

Actually, more like Mississippi...but somehow I screwed it up in my mind.

[The Vorlon]

Vorlan - are you voting for Michael Badnarik? OR A CLOSET BUSHY

Them's fight'n words

Actually I have already arranged to vote.  I am a US Citizen living abroad so I have already requested my Ballot from California.  

Popped down to the US Consulate in Calgary Alberta and did my duty as a good citizen.

I am proud to say I have voted in every single election from President to dog catcher for which I was ever eligable to vote in.

I am a 100% absolutely certain voter.

[MODU]

Vorlan - are you voting for Michael Badnarik? OR A CLOSET BUSHY

Them's fight'n words

Actually I have already arranged to vote.  I am a US Citizen living abroad so I have already requested my Ballot from California.  

Popped down to the US Consulate in Calgary Alberta and did my duty as a good citizen.

I am proud to say I have voted in every single election from President to dog catcher for which I was ever eligable to vote in.

I am a 100% absolutely certain voter.

hahaha . . . an excellent side-step to the question asked.  

As my Singapore friend told me just the other day, this could apply to you as well Vorlon.  "You're such a good American."  hahaha

[??????????]

Vorlon, you need to show NOMO a certain graphic.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Vorlan - are you voting for Michael Badnarik? OR A CLOSET BUSHY

Them's fight'n words

Actually I have already arranged to vote.  I am a US Citizen living abroad so I have already requested my Ballot from California.  

Popped down to the US Consulate in Calgary Alberta and did my duty as a good citizen.

I am proud to say I have voted in every single election from President to dog catcher for which I was ever eligable to vote in.

I am a 100% absolutely certain voter.

Er, Vorlon,

There was an academic study done a few years ago which indicated that although there are really some strange elective offices in this county, there is NO evidence that 'dogcatcher' has ever been an elective office anywhere in the country at any time.

Besides, there are a number of people in Chicago who are even more certain voters than you.  They may be dead, but somehow they manage to vote in elections.