2008 vs 1988

[Dan the Roman]

I think the 1928 comparison is good. That should have been a Democratic year, 1926 had been a good Democratic midterm, but the decision to nominate AL Smith, a Catholic, made the election about him instead of being about eight years of corrupt Republican rule. The Republicans recruited a well-respected figure from outside the power structure to run(Hoover) who was able to separate himself from the Coolidge Administration, and offer change without risk.

The irony is that had Smith won, he would have refused any New Deal since he was a strong Free Marketer, and the entire New Deal Democratic Coalition never would have been. Instead Hoover, who deserved better, got stuck holding the bag and the Republicans were screwed for a generation.

I think there are similarities here. We have an opposition party that had all the dynamics in its favor, but chose to nominate a chancy candidate(Obama) who made the race about him. We have a Republican who at least pretends to be a respected outsider(McCain) who may win one more term to the Republicans. Evidence from American history though suggests its a term the GOP probably does not really want. No third term in American history has ever been successful for a party in power, and at best it ends with a temporary rout, at worst with a realignment. Given the changes going on in the world economy and balance of power, I would venture that the next 4 years are not going to be much fun. While I would prefer a Democrat in office because the party is not in denial of the existence of these changes like much of the GOP, I have seen no indication that either McCain or Obama is in has the vision or ability to deal with them.

I think the Democrats are better off losing this year.

[Dan the Roman]

It seems much more like 1976 than 1988. An accomplished and widely respected Republican candidate running against a 'moderate' outsider in a time of national malaise. Of course McCain isn't an incumbent and Obama in addition to being black is considerably less experienced than Carter was.

I would not use either the words accomplished or widely respected to describe Ford in 1976. Quite the opposite actually.

[Dan the Roman]

Madison's first term was not that successful and in fact he nearly lost the popular vote in 1812, and a had as a close a fight as he could given the state of the federalists. By 1816 there really was only one party and its a hard comparison to make. Unless you are suggesting that the Democrats will completely collapse and be merged into the GOP.

[Dan the Roman]

What similarities if any are there? I keep hearing '88 being thrown around as a close match to this year. Two things I can thing of that would make it close : coming out of a previous controversial eight years and having a relatively unknown GOP VP pick who got attacked out of the gate.

Similarity --  Experienced, war hero leading the GOP ticket chooses a far right extremist beloved by the Talibagelicals as a running mate.

Difference -- The running mate for the GOP this time around is not an incompetent boob.

Similarity --  The Democrats nominate a mainstream liberal with little experience to head the ticket.  And a running mate who is highly regarded by both parties (or was, as most Republicans conveniently forget their admiration of Democrats in election years).

Difference --  The 1988 D nominee was a white guy, despite the funny name.  He somehow managed to win West Virginia.  The 2008 nominee is an uppity elitist coon African American who couldn't win West Virginia if the other ticket was Stalin/Lenin.

Similarity -- Both Republican Presidential nominees were once moderates but caved in to the demands and manipulations of the religious right. 

Difference --  When the first Bush was elected, he very subtly began to push back against the extremists in his party and set a center-right course, rather than hard right.  He took some flak but nothing like what John McCain will face.  The far right media machine is very well oiled now.

I think you underestimate the appeal of Joseph Stalin as a Presidential candidate. No one doubted his qualifications to be commander in chief. I think the Man of Steel would do quite well in Appalachia, especially when he released his plan to send all the coastal elitists to gulags in Alaska.