which shows the race closing to 4 pts.
Would you take a look at the numbers. It doesn't make sense.
1) Bush leading independents by 11
2) Bush losing only 5% of Republicans
3) Kerry losing 15% of Dems
....and Bush only leading by 4? Kerry closing from 7 to 4 AFTER the Rep Convention?
When you get a chance could you Vorlonize these numbers.
Also, I read where Kerry was pulling his ad money out of NC. Seems things don't exactly square with this poll. What am I missing in these numbers?
Lots of little stuff wrong in NC, party Id, too many women and the 72% turnout model is waaay out.
Bush is +6 among "certain" voters which is a more realistic turnout model, and sample is about 4% too democrat heavy, and there are a few too many women,and there are 3% too few whites.... and.... and....
The crew at Survey USA had a bad outing with this one...
I would read this poll as actually saying Bush
+9 or 10 actually. EDIT - Bush +8 or so (on a second look)
Bush is starting to pull away in NC actually.
The SUSA Ohio poll (Bush +3) looks very close however on a quick eyeball.
I didn't bother to look at the California sample
