538.com map

[KeyKeeper]

From now until the Election I will post 538.com's EV map, starting with 9/9/08.

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 260
Toss-up:13

[Person Man]

So, this is what the American map will always look like? LOL

[Moooooo]

Interesting timing on the tossups.  I told a colleague today (staunch Republican) my money is on CO and NH deciding the election.  Personal opinion is, McCain is underrated in NH right now.

[Beet]

Interesting timing on the tossups.  I told a colleague today (staunch Republican) my money is on CO and NH deciding the election.  Personal opinion is, McCain is underrated in NH right now.

Nice to see you back, Nick. I know you posted yesterday as well.
Care to give us an analysis of what you think is happening in NH?

[Moooooo]

Interesting timing on the tossups.  I told a colleague today (staunch Republican) my money is on CO and NH deciding the election.  Personal opinion is, McCain is underrated in NH right now.

Nice to see you back, Nick. I know you posted yesterday as well.
Care to give us an analysis of what you think is happening in NH?

Thanks Beet... definitely glad to see you are still around.  Always enjoyed reading your stuff especially on economic issues. I still have the Clinton debate between you and John Ford bookmarked.

To be perfectly honest, I'm not on the same level as Alcon, JJ, or Sam in terms of analyzing state trends/polls... my statement is mostly based on McCain's past performance in NH and the electorates overall affection for McCain.

[Keystone Phil]

Interesting timing on the tossups.  I told a colleague today (staunch Republican) my money is on CO and NH deciding the election.  Personal opinion is, McCain is underrated in NH right now.

Nice to see you back, Nick. I know you posted yesterday as well.
Care to give us an analysis of what you think is happening in NH?

Thanks Beet... definitely glad to see you are still around.  Always enjoyed reading your stuff especially on economic is

To be perfectly honest, I'm not on the same level as Alcon, JJ, or Sam in terms of analyzing state trends/polls... my statement is mostly based on the macro... historical numbers and New Hampshire's affection for McCain.

Nick! My favorite really partisan Democrat! 

[Moooooo]

Interesting timing on the tossups.  I told a colleague today (staunch Republican) my money is on CO and NH deciding the election.  Personal opinion is, McCain is underrated in NH right now.

Nice to see you back, Nick. I know you posted yesterday as well.
Care to give us an analysis of what you think is happening in NH?

Thanks Beet... definitely glad to see you are still around.  Always enjoyed reading your stuff especially on economic is

To be perfectly honest, I'm not on the same level as Alcon, JJ, or Sam in terms of analyzing state trends/polls... my statement is mostly based on the macro... historical numbers and New Hampshire's affection for McCain.

Nick! My favorite really partisan Democrat! 

Phil, nice to see you too.  Whats Sen. Santorum up to these days?  Possible gubernatorial bid?

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, nice to see you too.  Whats Sen. Santorum up to these days?  Possible gubernatorial bid?

Nah, he won't do it. He'll be back sometime though. 

[Erc]

I love 538's wonderful sensitivity...last week or so, Obama was given a >70% chance to win.  Now it's back to 52%, when nothing fundamental has really changed in the race.

[Jacobtm]

I love 538's wonderful sensitivity...last week or so, Obama was given a >70% chance to win.  Now it's back to 52%, when nothing fundamental has really changed in the race.

That was because of Obama's convention bounce, which took his polls up after he and McCain had been tied. Due to the difficulties of trying to factor out what is convention bounce, what is VP bounce, what is this and that, he just let his model take the polls for what they were and give its predicton based on them. It was made clear that in the days immediately after the conventions, the model would follow the polls in giving each candidate a good bounce, but that this should largely be ignored and you should wait until a couple weeks after the conventions before you take the model seriously again.

[J. J.]

Interesting timing on the tossups.  I told a colleague today (staunch Republican) my money is on CO and NH deciding the election.  Personal opinion is, McCain is underrated in NH right now.

Nice to see you back, Nick. I know you posted yesterday as well.
Care to give us an analysis of what you think is happening in NH?

Thanks Beet... definitely glad to see you are still around.  Always enjoyed reading your stuff especially on economic issues. I still have the Clinton debate between you and John Ford bookmarked.

To be perfectly honest, I'm not on the same level as Alcon, JJ, or Sam in terms of analyzing state trends/polls... my statement is mostly based on McCain's past performance in NH and the electorates overall affection for McCain.

It's good to see you again; you'll have to tell me how the job goes.

I'm ready to make these Predictions:

McCain wins everything south of the Ohio/Potomac river line, including FL and VA.

McCain wins everything west of a state bordering the Pacific, except NM an CO.

McCain wins AK, IN, OH and MO; I don't think OH will be that close.

Obama will win every state completely west of the head of the Ohio River and north of the Potomac, except PA and NH. 

Obama will win every state bordering the Pacific except AK.

Obama will win, IL, IA, MN, and WI.

States out:  NH, PA, MI, CO, and NM.

It's on the first page of the 538 map.

Here is one a few days later:

Four states close:

VA, NH:  Goes McCain

MI, PA:  Goes Obama

CO:  Tossup.

I did pull back NH on my prediction and gave CO to McCain.

[Torie]

From now until the Election I will post 538.com's EV map, starting with 9/9/08.

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 260
Toss-up:13

That little mappie, is a dead even election, percentage wise, and EV wise. Fun, fun, fun.

I have this paranoia however, that Colorado will have a Dem bias in the end, and F me, and elect the trimmer.

[Ronnie]

From now until the Election I will post 538.com's EV map, starting with 9/9/08.

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 260
Toss-up:13

That little mappie, is a dead even election, percentage wise, and EV wise. Fun, fun, fun.

I have this paranoia however, that Colorado will have a Dem bias in the end, and F me, and elect the trimmer.

As I said before, it will either be right at the national average (most likely) or be 1 point more Dem than the national average.  Nothing more than that. Period.

[KeyKeeper]

9/10/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen. Joe Biden (D): 264
Toss-up: 9


Changes in Sen. McCain's direction.[/b]

CA: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
NM: Likely Obama to Leans Obama
CO: Toss-up Obama to Toss-up McCain
ND: Leans McCain to Safe McCain
TX: Likely McCain to Safe McCain
GA: Likely McCain to Safe McCain


In Sen. Obama's direction[/b]

IA: Leans Obama to Likely Obama
NH: Toss-up Obama to Leans Obama
ME: Likely Obama to Safe Obama

[Nutmeg]

That little mappie, is a dead even election, percentage wise, and EV wise. Fun, fun, fun.

I have this paranoia however, that Colorado will have a Dem bias in the end, and F me, and elect the trimmer.

As I said before, it will either be right at the national average (most likely) or be 1 point more Dem than the national average.  Nothing more than that. Period.

Well, there you have it.

[Person Man]

That little mappie, is a dead even election, percentage wise, and EV wise. Fun, fun, fun.

I have this paranoia however, that Colorado will have a Dem bias in the end, and F me, and elect the trimmer.

As I said before, it will either be right at the national average (most likely) or be 1 point more Dem than the national average.  Nothing more than that. Period.

Well, there you have it.

Right now CO is D+.2 of NA.

[KeyKeeper]

9/11/08

Sen. Barack Obama/Joe Biden: 264
Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin: 245
Toss-ups: 29


Changes in Sen. McCain directions[/b]

None

Changes in Sen. Obama directions[/b]

OH: Leans McCain to Toss-up McCain.

[Alcon]

Thanks for doing this.

[J. J.]

Thanks for doing this.

^^^^^^^^

[KeyKeeper]

Your Welcome guys, it gives me something to do. I'm shocked that 538.com has SD has Likely McCain.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Thanks for doing this.

^^^^^^^^

[KeyKeeper]

09/12/08

Sen. John McCain/Gov. Sarah Palin (R): 265
Sen. Barack Obama/Sen Joe Biden (D): 259
Toss-up: 14


Changes in Sen. McCain's direction[/b]

IL: Safe Obama to Likely Obama
NM: Leans Obama to Toss-up Obama
OH: Toss-up McCain to Leans McCain
OR: Likely Obama to Leans Obama

Changes in Sen. Obama's direction:[/b]

AZ: Safe McCain to Likely McCain

[Zarn]

Illinois? Really? Illinois?

You sure?

[KeyKeeper]

That is what the site says, I was shocked about IL and AZ both, but hey I don't do the numbers they do.

[Zarn]

I can see AZ, because of the polling I had seen on it.