New DailyKos/Research 2000 tracking poll

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Yesterday's sample only:

Obama - 51%
McCain - 42%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Hopefully Gallup and Ras will agree.

[Verily]

Sunday - September 28, 2008:

Obama - 50% (+1)
McCain - 43% (nc)

Hopefully Gallup and Ras will agree.

Rumor is that Gallup will show Obama+8 today.

[TheresNoMoney]

Monday, 9/29/08

Obama    51%
McCain    42%

[Kalimantan]

Tuesday- September 30, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 41% (-1)

2nd successive +11 daily sample yesterday

[Kalimantan]

Wednesday - October 1st, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 41% (nc)

[Kalimantan]

Thursday- October 2nd, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 40% (-1)

[Eraserhead]

This poll is pretty god damn absurd.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This poll is pretty god damn absurd.

why?  doesn't seem to be too far off the mark to me

[Eraserhead]

This poll is pretty god damn absurd.

why?  doesn't seem to be too far off the mark to me

Obama is leading by 11 points? Come on now.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

This poll is pretty god damn absurd.

why?  doesn't seem to be too far off the mark to me

Obama is leading by 11 points? Come on now.

sorry, don't know how I misread that, I subtracted and got 9 instead of 11 

[Lief 🗽]

It's got a bit of a Democratic lean (3 points or so). We'll see if they're doing turnout right or Rasmussen is doing turnout right come election day. Either way, Obama is clearly ahead, and into '88 landslide territory at this point.

[Kalimantan]

Friday- October 3rd, 2008:

Obama - 51% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

[Rowan]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support. It's a dirty little trick they pull in their polls, instead of raising Obama's number(which would raise suspicion), they just move all of McCains support to Undecided. It happens at the rate of a point a day in each of the internals. I have a spreadsheet with the internals from everyday of the poll. It's striking how they are manipulating the numbers. Here are a few examples:

60+ on September 11
McCain 54%, Obama 39%
60+ Today
McCain 45%, Obama 42%

McCain favorability on September 11
55% favorable, 44% unfavorable
McCain favorability Today
42% favorable, 45% unfavorable

So apparently Kos wants us to believe that 13 percent of seniors are now undecided when there were only 7 percent undecided 3 weeks ago. Yeah right.

And now they want us to believe only 87% can form an opinion on McCain when 99% had some type of opinion on him 3 weeks ago. They are a joke.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

[Tender Branson]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

Rasmussen has long not shown a breakdown by race, but when they did they had Obama up by 30 or so among Latinos and that was when the race was close nationally. McCain can be really happy if he gets a third of Latinos right now or on E-Day.

[Rowan]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

Rasmussen has long not shown a breakdown by race, but when they did they had Obama up by 30 or so among Latinos and that was when the race was close nationally. McCain can be really happy if he gets a third of Latinos right now or on E-Day.

But 21%? Thats one out of 5, he has to be doing better than that.

[Tender Branson]

Saturday - October 4, 2008:

Obama - 52% (+1)
McCain - 40% (nc)

[??????????]

Obama seems to be polling to high IMHO.

[Democratic Hawk]

Obama seems to be polling to high IMHO.

Research 2000's weighting is 35% Democrat; 26% Republican; 30% Independent; 9% Other/Refused

However, using Rasmussen's weighting for this past week, Democrat 39.0%, Republican 33.6%; Unaffiliated 27.40% and applying it here, I get:

Obama: Democrat (88%) 34.320, Republican (7%) 2.252, Unaffiliated (50%) 13.70 = 50.372% (50% rounded)

McCain: Democrat (7%) 3.120, Republican (84%) 28.224, Unaffiliated (38%) 10.412 = 41.756% (42% rounded)

That's an Obama lead of 8% rounded

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - October 5, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

Saturday sample (363 LV, MoE = 5%):

Obama - 53%
McCain - 40%

[Democratic Hawk]

Todays numbers adjusted for a more reasonable E-Day composition:

White (76%): Obama 39%, McCain 50%
African-American (11%): Obama 94%, McCain 3%
Latino (10%): Obama 67%, McCain 21%
Asians/Others (3%): Obama 83%, McCain 4%

Obama 49.2%, McCain 40.6%

Dailykos/R2000 is based on 73% White, 13% African-American, 13% Latino and 1% Other.

Underestimating both McCain's white and Latino support.

EDIT One more example:
Latino on September 11
Obama 67%-McCain 28%
Latino Today
Obama 67%-McCain 21%

So Obamas support hasn't grown but 7% of McCains has moved to undecided? Yeah right.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/108040/Candidate-Support-Race.aspx

Rasmussen has long not shown a breakdown by race, but when they did they had Obama up by 30 or so among Latinos and that was when the race was close nationally. McCain can be really happy if he gets a third of Latinos right now or on E-Day.

Gallup's most recent aggregated weekly tracking data (Sep. 22-28) shows Obama with 41% of whites (McCain is at 52%) and 65% among Hispanics (McCain is at 26%)

Dave

[Tender Branson]

Monday - October 6, 2008:

Obama - 52% (nc)
McCain - 40% (nc)

[Kalimantan]

R2K's Obama figures are similar to Gallup's and Rasmussens'. McCain's are much lower, thus resulting in this huge gap. Are they just not pushing leaners as much?

[Tender Branson]

R2K's Obama figures are similar to Gallup's and Rasmussens'. McCain's are much lower, thus resulting in this huge gap. Are they just not pushing leaners as much?

The difference is that they have Barr and Nader included, based on voluntary mentioning.