Can Obama win without Colorado?

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Obama can easily win without CO. There's no reason why if he loses CO, he wouldn't be able to win OH or VA. Nevertheless, I do not expect him to lose CO at this time.

The reason is that Colorado will be closer to the national average than OH or VA will be.  If Obama loses CO, he will almost certainly lose VA and OH.

     CO is a different place than OH or VA. That it's closer to the national average doesn't mean everything when what would need to be done to win CO is completely different from what would need to be done to win VA.

     Obama can easily win without CO. There's no reason why if he loses CO, he wouldn't be able to win OH or VA. Nevertheless, I do not expect him to lose CO at this time.

How is that? I doubt Obama will lose either MI or PA while winning CO. I guess if Mccain takes NM,NH and NV, that would be a way. Pretty unlikely though. Obama could still win OH,FL or VA. He wins just one of those states and he is president. Again this is pretty unlikely as well without already having won CO.

     Don't get me wrong, I think that if McCain loses CO, he's most likely finished. I've never thought much of his chances at winning NV or NH.

[phk]

Yup, but it's unlikely.

[Sbane]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either. Still I doubt the state will be any more democratic than the national average though. I think whoever wins the popular vote will probably win the state and thus the election. 538 says Obama has the slight advantage if the popular vote is about a tie and I think they may be right.

[phk]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

CO is a younger, healthier, bourgeois type of state, but it is also hawkish and has a strong GOP base in CO Springs, with Dem bases in Denver Metro and Boulder.

[Sbane]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

Very true. People who move from California to Colorado tend to be younger and more involved in high-tech, sectors which are surprisingly liberal here in California. There is also the hippie migration to Boulder and other mountain towns. Arizona and Idaho really tend to get the most conservative Californians while Nevada is more of a mixed bag. The basic thing about these three states is that the moving population tends to be older and usually retirees, thus more conservative.

[phk]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

Very true. People who move from California to Colorado tend to be younger and more involved in high-tech, sectors which are surprisingly liberal here in California.

The high-tech sector seemed more to follow the "California Ideology" that became popular in the mid-to-late 1990s here or am I a bit outdated?

[J. J.]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

[phk]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

Gore 2000 + NH + CO is the most likely Obama win. CO being the "Bush state in reach".

[Sbane]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

Very true. People who move from California to Colorado tend to be younger and more involved in high-tech, sectors which are surprisingly liberal here in California.

The high-tech sector seemed more to follow the "California Ideology" that became popular in the mid-to-late 1990s here or am I a bit outdated?

Umm what is this "california ideology"? I am guessing liberal on social policy and moderate on economic issues?

[phk]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

Very true. People who move from California to Colorado tend to be younger and more involved in high-tech, sectors which are surprisingly liberal here in California.

The high-tech sector seemed more to follow the "California Ideology" that became popular in the mid-to-late 1990s here or am I a bit outdated?

Umm what is this "california ideology"? I am guessing liberal on social policy and moderate on economic issues?

The general themes of it were "counterculture libertaranism", "cybernetics", "technological fatalism", "free markets".

Maybe pretty close to "techno-utopianism" which was popularized by Wired magazine around the same time.

[Sbane]

Does anyone have demographic info to indicate why CO is closer this year. It surprises me since it really wasnt close in 04 - Bush by 6 I believe.  McCain and Obama are both solid with the bases here (and everywhere) and I recently noticed Repubs still outnumber Dems in CO, unlike in states such as Ohio.  What gives that is is so tight?

It is a younger state than others which gives Obama a bump. The hispanic population is growing as well and they tend to be more democratic than in other states. Also racism and racial/ethnic tensions are causing Obama to lose more than a few points in OH and PA while there is less of that tension in CO. Having the DNC in Denver didn't hurt either.

Lots of liberal ex-Californians move to CO as opposed to the GOP-leaning ones who move to Nevada, Idaho and Arizona.

Very true. People who move from California to Colorado tend to be younger and more involved in high-tech, sectors which are surprisingly liberal here in California.

The high-tech sector seemed more to follow the "California Ideology" that became popular in the mid-to-late 1990s here or am I a bit outdated?

Umm what is this "california ideology"? I am guessing liberal on social policy and moderate on economic issues?

The general themes of it were "counterculture libertaranism", "cybernetics", "technological fatalism", "free markets".

Maybe pretty close to "techno-utopianism" which was popularized by Wired magazine around the same time.

Yeah something like that. "Counterculture libertaranism" probably comes closest to describing the ideology I would say. This basically leads to a democratic vote on the national stage while a politician like Ahhnold can get the vote in a governor's race.

[Nym90]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

By using "the" are you implying there's only one Bush state Obama can win?

That seems a bit presumptuous.

[RJ]

Suppose you took the numbers 1 thru 50 and assigned 1 to the state most likely to go Democrat and 50 to the state least likely to go Democrat. Colorado would rank about #23 right in front of states like Michigan and New Hampshire(21-22) and Nevada and Ohio(numbers 24-25.) Although the margins in states ranking 21-25 are the thinnest right now, Colorado is obviously the tipping point that would give either candidate the win in November.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it may very well be obsolete by November. Colorado could infiltrate itself into the Democratic column, but another state ranking close to where it is could fall out of the Democratic side. It could swing into the GOP aisle, but McCain could find himself with bigger problems in another state. With only 9 electoral votes, it's entirely possible CO could be irrelevant by election day. States like Michigan, Virginia or Ohio could easily decide this thing.

[Nym90]

Suppose you took the numbers 1 thru 50 and assigned 1 to the state most likely to go Democrat and 50 to the state least likely to go Democrat. Colorado would rank about #23 right in front of states like Michigan and New Hampshire(21-22) and Nevada and Ohio(numbers 24-25.) Although the margins in states ranking 21-25 are the thinnest right now, Colorado is obviously the tipping point that would give either candidate the win in November.

The problem with this line of thinking is that it may very well be obsolete by November. Colorado could infiltrate itself into the Democratic column, but another state ranking close to where it is could fall out of the Democratic side. It could swing into the GOP aisle, but McCain could find himself with bigger problems in another state. With only 9 electoral votes, it's entirely possible CO could be irrelevant by election day. States like Michigan, Virginia or Ohio could easily decide this thing.

Actually, based on recent polling, Colorado could well be more likely for Obama than New Mexico (though of course trusting New Mexico polling is pretty risky in and of itself, but...).

Michigan, Virginia, or Ohio could decide it, but only if any of the three flips from 2004. If they vote the same as '04, then it comes down to the small states. If either candidate flips any of those three, he's going to win almost for certain.

[J. J.]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

By using "the" are you implying there's only one Bush state Obama can win?

That seems a bit presumptuous.

The only other one is NH, which isn't enough.  I have two large Gore states that are in reach of McCain, and at least one smaller one.  My numbers are starting to get closer. 

[Iosif]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

By using "the" are you implying there's only one Bush state Obama can win?

That seems a bit presumptuous.

The only other one is NH, which isn't enough.  I have two large Gore states that are in reach of McCain, and at least one smaller one.  My numbers are starting to get closer. 

Your numbers are crap. No one with intelligent impartiality can justifiably call Florida, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia for McCain and at the same time label New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Michigan toss-ups.

But we all know you're neither impartial or intelligent. You're a dull retard with an unusually high opinion of yourself.

[Nym90]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

By using "the" are you implying there's only one Bush state Obama can win?

That seems a bit presumptuous.

The only other one is NH, which isn't enough.  I have two large Gore states that are in reach of McCain, and at least one smaller one.  My numbers are starting to get closer. 

I disagree with the notion that Obama cannot win Ohio, Virginia, or Nevada. Or for that matter Florida, though it definitely won't be the "tipping point" state. Any of the above three could be, though they probably won't be.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I still think Obama wins Virginia, but if he does, then he's very likely to have already won Colorado.

[J. J.]

No.  Obama needs to hold everything Gore held, and that is by no means secure.  Failure to grab the one Bush state in reach and he has no realistic chance of winning.

By using "the" are you implying there's only one Bush state Obama can win?

That seems a bit presumptuous.

The only other one is NH, which isn't enough.  I have two large Gore states that are in reach of McCain, and at least one smaller one.  My numbers are starting to get closer. 

I disagree with the notion that Obama cannot win Ohio, Virginia, or Nevada. Or for that matter Florida, though it definitely won't be the "tipping point" state. Any of the above three could be, though they probably won't be.

At this point, I doubt that Obama can win, OH, VA, or NV.  FL looks like its gone as well.

[Likely Voter]

Although I voted yes, CO seems like the ultimate swing state in this election. But it is possible perhaps that Obama wins Gore states + NV (and then wins in the house), or Gore states + OH. Although CO is more likely to flip before NV or OH, it is still possible for those to flip first based on different turnout scenarios.

As for all the other states on Obama's wish list (FL, VA, MO, IN, GA, MT, ND, NC), I really cant see him losing CO and winning any of those. Those are the states that could end up with Obama if he can swing back to a large PV spread.

Right now I think something that is growing in likelyhood is Obama losing the PV but winning the EV with Gore states plus CO.

[ChrisFromNJ]

At this point, I doubt that Obama can win, OH, VA, or NV.  FL looks like its gone as well.

It looks like it is gone, yet Obama leads or is tied in 2 of the last 4 polls.

[J. J.]

At this point, I doubt that Obama can win, OH, VA, or NV.  FL looks like its gone as well.

It looks like it is gone, yet Obama leads or is tied in 2 of the last 4 polls.

The post Palin ones I've seen, show McCain and continued trending in that direction.  Maybe I'll see something tomorrow that will change that, but not now.

Newsflash:  The political world changed in late August.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I still don't think Obama can win Florida, but I want to see a Mason-Dixon poll post Palin before I decide.  If they show it as McCain +6, then I'll believe he can't win there.  But if they show it tied, or McCain by less than 3, I'll be pretty happy

[NDN]

Yes but it would be pretty unlikely IMO. A lot of people are still barely sure he'll hold onto Michigan and Pennsylvania, never mind win a state that Kerry lost. And Virginia is still sort of weak for him.