I think people are really forgetting the fact that 2000 and 2004 were so unusual in that A.) they were so simmilar and B.) they were so close in the EV and PV. Most elections are won decisively, and most elections that aren't re-elections look very different from previous ones.
Of course, just because something usually has happened, doesn't mean that it will always happen. But I just think people are too set in the '00/'04 mold to realize that if anyone wins this election by just a few points, the map will look quite different from last year.
Excellent post.
I may be one of the few on this board old enough to remember the 1980 Reagan Carter election. Pre-internet off course, so I'd actively devour all the news magazines for their maps and predictions. Everyone had the race as a complete toss-up.
Since it was going to be so close, I started an election pool at work, in which you picked each states electoral votes. I still remember the guy with the winning entry--his theory was, all these "toss up states" will go the same way, so he just guessed Reagan, and won the pool easily.
Not to say the same will happen this time but there is a good chance that one of the candidates will pull away in the final days and win every one of the "toss-ups" and most of the ones that are "leaners" for the other candidate.
