sbane..you have to remember though, because he's seen as more a moderate, he's going to attract democrats and independents. Thus, he's going to outperform Bush in the northeast, even though he may not win a single state up here.
It wouldn't surprise me if he broke 40% in MA and RI either as the polls there have been comfortable for Obama of course, but closer than the norm. The same goes for NY. It's also the same reason why you see Obama polling tighter than normal in NC, IN and MS (for a while).
I agree Mccain will do better in MA and RI than Bush did. That is why Mccain has a good chance at NH as well, but I doubt he will improve in NY. Look at the swings in NY from 2000 to 2004. Many people who vote democrat usually and cannot stand Bush's folksiness, still voted for him in 2004 because of the 9/11 effect. These people will return back to their normal voting patterns and the only way Mccain can gain ground is by winning moderate republicans and independents. I think Obama is getting a good amount of that moderate republican vote currently and those people live on long island and Westchester, two places that should swing to Obama. CT is a good measure of this and it seems like that state is swinging to Obama as well. Mccain will probably perform as well as Bush in the upstate if not a little better and the boroughs I am not too sure about. Those areas contain the blue collar whites Obama has been having trouble with.
