McCain could carry Long Island, NY

[sg0508]

It would be the first time since 1992 in which either Nassau or Suffolk county NY voted Red rather than blue.  Traditionally, moderate republicans and white collar voters would carry the island for the republicans but local corruption and influx of minorities have hurt the GOP here over the past 10 yrs, along with the conservative movement of the party.

Bush came close to winning Suffolk in 04.  The latest Rasmussen poll has Obama leading 55-42%, still well out in front and in no peril of losing the state, but he may win only the boroughs, Albany, and a few counties upstate, similar to maps of 1988 and 1976.

Interesting also to note that McCain has the support right now of 20% of NY's democrats, but he loses 20% of republicans to Obama.  Had he held onto more republicans, perhaps he would have a chance at actually making my state competitive again.

[sg0508]

That's not true at all.  Nassau was 52-46% Kerry in 04 and Suffolk was 49-48% Kerry.  Bush still lost the state 58-40%. 

Traditionally, we could lose here by 4-5 pts because moderate republicans used to carry the island and we would nearly sweep upstate outside of Albany. 

[sg0508]

In order to carry the state, the GOP candidate must win 55-60% on the Island, 2/3 upstate and garnish at least 1/3 in the boroughs.  It's really tough to do.  Democrats outnumber Republicans 46-27% here.

Reagan won almost 2/3 of the island, 2/3 upstate and 1/3 of the boroughs and still only won by 8 pts in 84.  

[sg0508]

Well, the big problem is that now, democrats are winning >80% in the boroughs, which makes it near impossible to win here anymore.  Pataki did well here three times in 94, 98 and 02 because of the independent Tom Golisano and because gov. races are far less partisan, but I don't see any republican, including another "RINO" getting it done here.

The same thing goes for PA and why we really struggle to win there.  We used to get 1/3 of the Philly vote and thus, we didn't have to win big inland, but now, we can't even get 20% there.  Even when Arlen Spector survived in 04 (53-42%), he still did very poorly in Philly, getting just 29%.

[sg0508]

sbane..you have to remember though, because he's seen as more a moderate, he's going to attract democrats and independents.  Thus, he's going to outperform Bush in the northeast, even though he may not win a single state up here. 

It wouldn't surprise me if he broke 40% in MA and RI either as the polls there have been comfortable for Obama of course, but closer than the norm.  The same goes for NY.  It's also the same reason why you see Obama polling tighter than normal in NC, IN and MS (for a while).