McCain could carry Long Island, NY

[Smash255]

MCCain is not going to win LI, he won't even come close.  Bush received a huge 9/11 bounce here which helped his numbers in 04, that bounce is LONG gone.
 Suffolk will obviously be a closer than Nassau, but he doesn't have a chance of winning yhat either. 

[Smash255]

Long Island had a large 9/11 bounce and I doubt Mccain carries it. If Mccain wins any county on long island, he has won this election by a healthy margin.

Well, the last Rasmussen poll shows Obama up by 13 in NY.  That means McCain at least carries Suffolk.

McCain is definitely going to win NY-1, though.

McCain isn't winning NY-1.  Bush won it by less than a point with the 9/11 bounce when he won nationally by 2.46%.  Not a chance.

[Smash255]

In order to carry the state, the GOP candidate must win 55-60% on the Island, 2/3 upstate and garnish at least 1/3 in the boroughs.  It's really tough to do.  Democrats outnumber Republicans 46-27% here.

Reagan won almost 2/3 of the island, 2/3 upstate and 1/3 of the boroughs and still only won by 8 pts in 84.  

Long Island was once very Republican.  It isn't anymore.  Going back to the time you are talking about, Republicans controlled everything on LI.  No we have both legislatures in Dem hands, both county execs in Dem hands, both DA's in Dem hands, 4 of the 5 Congressman from LI are Dems.  The area isn't GOP anymore.  This isn't the 80's anymore....

In fact the Dem shifts on Long Island along with Westchester is the main reason why LI has changed from lean Dem to strong Dem.

[Smash255]

Nassau is packed with folks for are not Christian Anglos these days. What did Bush 2004 lose Nassau plus Suffolk by? 

Edit: It looks like around 3%-4%, which I find surprisingly low. In any event, I would be amazed if the Nassau demographics are not continuing to trend Dem.

It was that low due to Bush's 9/11 bounce, Gore won LI by about 15 or so.