Electoral tie analysis

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The Democrats currently hold 27 state delegations. The Republicans have 21. 2 are tied. 26 are needed for the House to select a President.

AL Safe GOP
AK GOP held Tossup
AZ Tie, Unclear status
AR Safe Dem
CA Safe Dem
CO Reasonably safe Dem
CT Safe Dem
DE Probably safe GOP
FL Safe GOP
GA Safe GOP
HI Safe Dem
ID GOP, possible tie
IL Safe Dem
IN Lean Dem
IA Lean Dem
KS Lean tie
KY Lean GOP
LA Safe GOP
ME Safe Dem
MD Safe Dem
MA Safe Dem
MI Lean GOP
MN Lean Dem
MS Lean Dem
MO, GOP, tossup
MT Safe GOP
NE Safe GOP
NV GOP, tossup
NH Lean Dem
NJ Safe Dem
NM GOP, Lean Dem
NY Safe Dem
NC Lean Dem
ND Safe Dem
OH, GOP, tossup
OK Safe GOP
OR Safe Dem
PA Probably safe Dem
RI Safe Dem
SC Safe GOP
SD Safe Dem
TN Safe GOP
TX Safe GOP
UT Safe GOP
VT Safe Dem
VA Probably safe GOP
WA Safe Dem
WV Safe Den
WI Lean Dem
WY Tossup

Safe GOP 13
Lean GOP 2
GOP, possible tie 1
Tossup/unclear 7
Lean Dem 8
Safe Dem 19

I'm sure someone will find something to disagree with in this quick analysis, but I think it's unlikely that the Democrats won't retain the 26 needed to break the tie.

[nclib]

I'm sure someone will find something to disagree with in this quick analysis, but I think it's unlikely that the Democrats won't retain the 26 needed to break the tie.

Probably, though it's possible that some Dems in solid McCain districts might be tempted to cross over to avoid defeat in 2010.

[cp]

I'm sure someone will find something to disagree with in this quick analysis, but I think it's unlikely that the Democrats won't retain the 26 needed to break the tie.

Probably, though it's possible that some Dems in solid McCain districts might be tempted to cross over to avoid defeat in 2010.

I've never understood this line of reasoning. Why would someone who was elected as a Democrat, even in a conservative-leaning district, EVER vote to have someone from another party occupy the White House?

Also, it would diminish the power of said-legislator in many ways. First of all, not having someone from her own party in the White House would make it more difficult for her to get the ear of the President, even if it was her vote that won him that seat. Secondly, can you imagine the backlash from her colleagues? The Speaker would probably expel her from the caucus. She'd be relegated to the lowest of the low committees and denied any chance to pass legislation for the entire session. This is besides the fact that having the opposing party control the executive makes it harder to get legislation turned into law.

Finally, no matter how conservative-leaning a district is no Democrat can win without getting actual Democrats to vote for them. If an elected Democrat cast such a decisive vote against her own party you can guarantee her district office would vanish the next day.

[Nutmeg]

Should it come to this, Mike Castle had better think long and hard before casting his vote.

[Brittain33]

AZ Tie, Unclear status

Lean Dem, I'd say, because AZ-1 is likely lost to the Republicans.

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LA-04 is a toss-up at this point. If the Dems win that and hold LA-06, it becomes a majority-D delegation. Nonetheless, probably the most conservative one in the country.

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It's actually 5-4 Dem and unlikely to change.

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I think this has to be considered lean GOP. Yes, it could change, but it's unlikely to.

[Brittain33]

I've never understood this line of reasoning. Why would someone who was elected as a Democrat, even in a conservative-leaning district, EVER vote to have someone from another party occupy the White House?

Here's another factor. Two of the potential weak links, Lincoln Davis of Tennessee and Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin of South Dakota, plan to run for governor in 2010 and 2012, respectively. I leave it to you to see how that changes the math, particularly so in Davis's case where he'd transition from representing 1/9 of the state to the whole thing.

[Erc]

I (and others) have done similar, extensive analyses in this thread, with most recent analysis here.

I'd disagree with you on a few places here and there...

Iowa is safely Democratic this year, despite their recent taking of the state.

As brittain mentioned, Louisiana is (at best) Lean GOP.

Heath Shuler appears to be safe, so North Carolina is Safe Democratic.

And I'd put WY-AL more to "Lean Republican" than "Tossup," personally.


By my estimation,
Safe D: 20
Likely D: 2
Lean D: 3
Tossup: 8
Lean R: 3
Likely R: 6
Safe R: 8

(With certain states in there being possibilities of tossups, etc.)

Republicans would need a very good day to win without defections, though they could (on a reasonably good day) force a deadlock.

As for defections...it's unlikely in any currently Democratic-held state, with a couple of exceptions.  (If they take someplace like Alaska, Louisiana, or Alabama, there may be some temptation--freshmen anywhere in red districts in red states may feel vulnerable or feel an obligation to vote for who their district voted for).

Note also that Representatives can affect the vote of their state by simply declining to vote...this can often tip the balance of the state without the person having to vote for the candidate of the other party directly.

The main exceptions being:
Herseth-Sandlin, Davis, and Castle, as mentioned.  Herseth-Sandlin also pledged to vote for the winner of her state in the event of a tie in 2004.

I wouldn't be surprised if there were at least one abstention in Indiana, as well, unless the state was exceptionally close.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I'm sure someone will find something to disagree with in this quick analysis, but I think it's unlikely that the Democrats won't retain the 26 needed to break the tie.

Probably, though it's possible that some Dems in solid McCain districts might be tempted to cross over to avoid defeat in 2010.

I've never understood this line of reasoning. Why would someone who was elected as a Democrat, even in a conservative-leaning district, EVER vote to have someone from another party occupy the White House?

Depends on who wins the PV.  If there is an EV tie and McCain wins the PV, there will be considerable pressure on blue dog Democrats to follow the PV.  Even in that circumstance, it is more likely is that the blue dogs will use the threat of crossing the aisle on that vote to wrangle better committee positions and other perks out of Pelosi and company than to actually vote McCain.