Dick Morris's election map

[Politico]

This is gonna be a HUGE landslide, people. Right now is the calm before the storm. For the most part, I think Dick is on the mark here.

[HardRCafé]

Arkansas is strongly Obama.

Dick Morris is a bigger troll than anyone here, and even more encouraged.  Sigh.

[??????????]

Arkansas is strongly Obama.

Dick Morris is a bigger troll than anyone here, and even more encouraged.  Sigh.

A bigger one then the poster before you?

[Ronnie]

This is gonna be a HUGE landslide, people. Right now is the calm before the storm. For the most part, I think Dick is on the mark here.

Uh, a huge landslide is something like LBJ in '64.  Even if Obama does improve on his margins from now till election day (which I doubt), it won't be to the point where AR, TN, and AZ are for Obama.

[Politico]

This is gonna be a HUGE landslide, people. Right now is the calm before the storm. For the most part, I think Dick is on the mark here.

Uh, a huge landslide is something like LBJ in '64.  Even if Obama does improve on his margins from now till election day (which I doubt), it won't be to the point where AR, TN, and AZ are for Obama.

A landslide is something like LBJ in '64 or, a more apt comparison, Reagan in '80.

There was Clinton Fatigue eight years ago, and now there is a huge majority (i.e., 65-75%) who are absolutely sick to death of Bush. These people are in every state, even the reddest of red states like Utah. This anger is beginning to show in the new presidential race to succeed Bush. It's becoming increasingly clear that many people, even some who supported Bush four years ago, are going to take out their anti-Bush anger on McCain, the Republican Party's chosen successor to Bush.

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along. He's got quite the reputation to live up to, and he just happens to be ahead of the curve here. He's seeing internal polls that lead him to these conclusions, too. As much as many doubt it, we are indeed looking at a 40-state landslide for Obama.

[??????????]

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along. He's got quite the reputation to live up to, and he just happens to be ahead of the curve. He's seeing internal polls that lead him to these conclusions. As much as many doubt it, we are indeed looking at a 40-state landslide for Obama.

No, we aren't. No way Obama wins Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona or TN.

[Politico]

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along. He's got quite the reputation to live up to, and he just happens to be ahead of the curve. He's seeing internal polls that lead him to these conclusions. As much as many doubt it, we are indeed looking at a 40-state landslide for Obama.

No, we aren't. No way Obama wins Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona or TN.

Hardcore supporters of Jimmy Carter did not see him losing a 44-state landslide. Hardcore supporters of Michael Dukakis did not see him losing a 40-state landslide. Both happened.

This is truly shaping up to be a semi-referendum on the past eight years of Bush policies. Things may change over the next three weeks, but if this trend continues then McCain is going to lose BIG as a result. It currently appears a significant majority of people are going to take their anti-Bush anger out on McCain, the Republican Party's chosen successor to Bush.

[Firefly]

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along.

No, seriously, he really is.

[Ronnie]

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along. He's got quite the reputation to live up to, and he just happens to be ahead of the curve. He's seeing internal polls that lead him to these conclusions. As much as many doubt it, we are indeed looking at a 40-state landslide for Obama.

No, we aren't. No way Obama wins Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona or TN.

Hardcore supporters of Jimmy Carter did not see him losing a 44-state landslide. Hardcore supporters of Michael Dukakis did not see him losing a 40-state landslide. Both happened.

This is truly shaping up to be a semi-referendum on the past eight years of Bush policies. Things may change over the next three weeks, but if this trend continues then McCain is going to lose BIG as a result. It currently appears a significant majority of people are going to take their anti-Bush anger out on McCain, the Republican Party's chosen successor to Bush.

The difference is that Obama is an extremely polarizing figure, and it would be quite tough for him to win by more than 52% or so.  It would be very tough to see him doing much better than he is now.

Perhaps a solid win, but a landslide isn't going to happen.

[Politico]

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along. He's got quite the reputation to live up to, and he just happens to be ahead of the curve. He's seeing internal polls that lead him to these conclusions. As much as many doubt it, we are indeed looking at a 40-state landslide for Obama.

No, we aren't. No way Obama wins Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona or TN.

Hardcore supporters of Jimmy Carter did not see him losing a 44-state landslide. Hardcore supporters of Michael Dukakis did not see him losing a 40-state landslide. Both happened.

This is truly shaping up to be a semi-referendum on the past eight years of Bush policies. Things may change over the next three weeks, but if this trend continues then McCain is going to lose BIG as a result. It currently appears a significant majority of people are going to take their anti-Bush anger out on McCain, the Republican Party's chosen successor to Bush.

The difference is that Obama is an extremely polarizing figure, and it would be quite tough for him to win by more than 52% or so.  It would be very tough to see him doing much better than he is now.

Perhaps a solid win, but a landslide isn't going to happen.

I think you're overestimating his polarization factor just like Democrats overestimated Reagan's level of polarization in 1980. After his debate with Carter, people realized how ridiculous the attacks on Reagan's character were. Likewise, we're seeming the same thing happen with Obama now that the three debates are pretty much over with.

It's a change election across the board, and I think it's going to show in the Electoral College.

[HardRCafé]

But Obama isn't the nominee; Gore is.

[Ronnie]

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along. He's got quite the reputation to live up to, and he just happens to be ahead of the curve. He's seeing internal polls that lead him to these conclusions. As much as many doubt it, we are indeed looking at a 40-state landslide for Obama.

No, we aren't. No way Obama wins Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona or TN.

Hardcore supporters of Jimmy Carter did not see him losing a 44-state landslide. Hardcore supporters of Michael Dukakis did not see him losing a 40-state landslide. Both happened.

This is truly shaping up to be a semi-referendum on the past eight years of Bush policies. Things may change over the next three weeks, but if this trend continues then McCain is going to lose BIG as a result. It currently appears a significant majority of people are going to take their anti-Bush anger out on McCain, the Republican Party's chosen successor to Bush.

The difference is that Obama is an extremely polarizing figure, and it would be quite tough for him to win by more than 52% or so.  It would be very tough to see him doing much better than he is now.

Perhaps a solid win, but a landslide isn't going to happen.

I think you're overestimating his polarization factor just like Democrats overestimated Reagan's level of polarization in 1980. After his debate with Carter, people realized how ridiculous the attacks on Reagan's character were. Likewise, we're seeming the same thing happen with Obama now that the three debates are pretty much over with.

It's a change election across the board, and I think it's going to show in the Electoral College.

Arguing with you is tiresome, since you are not responding to my posts.  Obama is not going to get a tsunami of votes on election day that defy polling results.  He is not winning TN or AZ.

The end

[Stranger in a strange land]

I'm really starting to question whether Morris believes his own analysis, or whether he's just given up and is making random maps in five minutes just to collect his paycheck.

[King]

How much does this job pay?  I'd gladly make random maps for money.

And just for the record, it appears Dick has gone from predicting a 2008 map similar to 2004 to a 2008 similar to 1992 to a 2008 map similar to 1964.

There's no way he goes into election day with these insane predictions.  He'll probably changes his map to a polling accurate map so he can get rehired.

[??????????]

He's stirring the pot.

[BlueSwan]

I almost choked looking at that map. Louisiana and South Carloina toss-ups? Arkansas "strong Obama"? Tennessee and Arizona (McCains home state no less) leaning Obama? Yet North Dakota still "strong McCain"?

Someone remind me how it was that Morris went from being a Clinton advisor to a conservative hack, I've forgotten.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Morris's map just gets worse & worse. Seriously, If Obama wins AZ, AR, & TN, by convincing margins no less, I'm changing my avatar to D-CA for a week.

[Хahar 🤔]

omfgwtf

[Politico]

Dick Morris isn't just making up sh**t as he goes along. He's got quite the reputation to live up to, and he just happens to be ahead of the curve. He's seeing internal polls that lead him to these conclusions. As much as many doubt it, we are indeed looking at a 40-state landslide for Obama.

No, we aren't. No way Obama wins Arkansas, South Carolina, Arizona or TN.

Hardcore supporters of Jimmy Carter did not see him losing a 44-state landslide. Hardcore supporters of Michael Dukakis did not see him losing a 40-state landslide. Both happened.

This is truly shaping up to be a semi-referendum on the past eight years of Bush policies. Things may change over the next three weeks, but if this trend continues then McCain is going to lose BIG as a result. It currently appears a significant majority of people are going to take their anti-Bush anger out on McCain, the Republican Party's chosen successor to Bush.

The difference is that Obama is an extremely polarizing figure, and it would be quite tough for him to win by more than 52% or so.  It would be very tough to see him doing much better than he is now.

Perhaps a solid win, but a landslide isn't going to happen.

I think you're overestimating his polarization factor just like Democrats overestimated Reagan's level of polarization in 1980. After his debate with Carter, people realized how ridiculous the attacks on Reagan's character were. Likewise, we're seeming the same thing happen with Obama now that the three debates are pretty much over with.

It's a change election across the board, and I think it's going to show in the Electoral College.

Arguing with you is tiresome, since you are not responding to my posts.  Obama is not going to get a tsunami of votes on election day that defy polling results.  He is not winning TN or AZ.

The end

Who said anything about defying polling results? Have you seen a poll recently for some of those states that are toss-up, lean Obama, etc.?

This is the quiet before the storm - the Obama landslide storm.

[Nutmeg]

Does not compute.

[Likely Voter]

Dick Morris is not a moron there must be some logic to it. The only thing I can up with is that this is part of some plan to paint McCain's last weeks as a comeback. Even if Morris just flipped his map next week to reflect reality it would look like McCain has 'big mo' Otherwise perhaps this map is just to scare the NewsMax crowd and keep em angry and donating.

Or, perhaps Dick Morris has gone insane

[Brittain33]

The difference is that Obama is an extremely polarizing figure, and it would be quite tough for him to win by more than 52% or so.  It would be very tough to see him doing much better than he is now.

Perhaps a solid win, but a landslide isn't going to happen.

I think it's a difficult proposition to say that Obama will get an '80 or '88 style win--however--the polls are showing that Obama does not inspire as broad disapproval or reluctance as he once did, and also that he's never been as polarizing as any candidate running since '88. His approval ratings went up following the debates. They're quite strong. Obama himself is not a polarizing person except insofar as he's held back by racism, given that the country is overwhelmingly favoring generic Democrats these days. His demeanor and approach have been designed to overcome polarization.

[Inmate Trump]

There's no way Obama will win Arizona or Tennessee and it's doubtfull he'll take West Virginia.  Georgia, South Carolina and Louisiana aren't toss-ups. 

[JohnCA246]

Im really curious about AR though.  No polling there for months.

[panda_priest]

I've been telling my dad back when McCain was ahead after the Palin pick, that the closer to nov. 4 the more states would start to break for Obama. And that's what's happened with WV going blue and North Dakota and Indiana turning purple. SC and LA could be next.