IL-Research2000: Obama with a huge lead over McCain

[Tender Branson]

Obama - 56%
McCain - 36%
Others - 5%
Undecided - 3%

Caption: Survey of 800 Illinois voters taken between Sept. 15 – 18. Margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Sponsored by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/politics

[Tender Branson]

The respective Mid-September 2004 surveys by R2000:

IL:

Kerry - 54%
Bush - 39%

MO:

Bush - 49%
Kerry - 42%

[Eraserhead]

This looks about right to me.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This looks about right to me.

[Sam Spade]

CONTINUED POST

I find it interesting that R2000's released state polls this week basically mirror my 49-49 tied race calls, taking into account the usual R2000 D+2 bias that Vorlon talked about:

ID:  McCain by 29 (9-16 to 17) (Sam Spade sez M+30.50)
KY:  McCain by 18 (9-15 to 17) (Sam Spade sez M+20.00)
ND:  McCain by 13 (9-16 to 17) (Sam Spade sez M+11.00)
AK:  McCain by 17 (9-16 to 17) (Sam Spade sez M+26.50 - a little off here, but I may have based too much in my changes on the Palin swing in Ras.  Or, in a more positive direction for me, it's an outlier.  )
MO:  McCain by 4 (9-15 to 18 - not Daily Kos) (Sam Spade sez M+6.00)
IL:  Obama by 20 (9-15 to 18 - not Daily Kos) (Sam Spade sez O+18.50)

Doesn't work with the Daily Kos national poll one bit, actually.  Just some food for thought.

[Aizen]

Entered

[Zarn]

This is safe Kang territory.