Maine gubernatorial election town map
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  Maine gubernatorial election town map
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Author Topic: Maine gubernatorial election town map  (Read 3440 times)
homelycooking
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« on: December 16, 2010, 02:59:23 PM »

This was a pain to put together, since Maine's SOTS hasn't released results yet and I had to get the incomplete statistics from CNN. Appleton, Sidney, Phillips, Crawford and Vienna did not report their results.



Old voting habits die hard up in Madawaska.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1 on: December 16, 2010, 04:27:57 PM »

So Cutler was really the de facto Dem nominee.
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redcommander
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« Reply #2 on: December 16, 2010, 06:50:55 PM »

What caused Libby Mitchell to collapse so badly?
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2010, 11:15:58 AM »

What caused Libby Mitchell to collapse so badly?

Cutler had the momentum on his side. polls showed him winning a lot of moderate republicans who thought LePage was too extreme. so, he was at 20-25% in polls and many democrats thought he was the only person able to defeat lepage and that mitchell would lose anyways so they decided to vote for cutler, who is actually a moderae democrat Wink.
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Verily
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« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2010, 11:45:33 AM »
« Edited: December 17, 2010, 11:48:30 AM by Verily »

Also, Mitchell was a terrible candidate from the beginning.

Kittery is interesting. Also, the Massholes in York County screwed it up for Cutler by not paying attention and voting for Mitchell.
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homelycooking
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« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2010, 11:56:40 AM »

Who was this other candidate in the race, Shawn Moody, who won 5%?
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RBH
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2010, 06:31:11 PM »

the results are up on the Maine SOTS now

http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/prior10-11.htm#nov2010
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Mainiac
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« Reply #7 on: December 18, 2010, 08:41:40 AM »
« Edited: December 18, 2010, 08:44:20 AM by Mainiac »

Cutler had the momentum on his side. polls showed him winning a lot of moderate republicans who thought LePage was too extreme. so, he was at 20-25% in polls and many democrats thought he was the only person able to defeat lepage and that mitchell would lose anyways so they decided to vote for cutler, who is actually a moderae democrat

That is misleading. Not a single poll showed Cutler getting significant Republican support. Polls showed LePage with a very unified Republican base, and Cutler getting support from unenrolled voters and centrist Democrats. It was the Democratic base that was disunited, not the Republican base.

For example, the final PPP poll showed LePage with the support of 71% of Republicans while Mitchell got the support of just 51% of Democrats.  Unenrolled voters went 40% Cutler, 31% LePage, 17% Mitchell.  Other polls earlier in the race showed a similar pattern, and since there were no exit polls, we don't know exactly what happened on Election Day.

Cutler cobbled together a coalition of unenrolled voters, moderate Democrats, and a few (not a "lot") of Republicans. In Maine, a partisan candidate having the support of 70% - 80% of their party is a fairly normal baseline of support.

In short, Cutler was competitive because Libby Mitchell was too liberal for independents and much of her own party, not because Paul LePage was too conservative. LePage did a better job holding his party together than Libby, and he had more appeal amongst independents.

Also, the title in Maine is "Secretary of State", not "Secretary of the State", so the acronym should be SOS.
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Mr. Taft Republican
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« Reply #8 on: December 18, 2010, 09:50:36 AM »

Who was this other candidate in the race, Shawn Moody, who won 5%?
Yeah, this year was a good one for the Independent's!
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homelycooking
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« Reply #9 on: December 18, 2010, 10:22:31 AM »
« Edited: December 18, 2010, 10:24:46 AM by homelycooking »

Also, the title in Maine is "Secretary of State", not "Secretary of the State", so the acronym should be SOS.


Thanks. In Connecticut, where I live, it's "SOTS", so that's why I made the error.

Where do you live in Maine, by the way? And do you know anything about this Shawn Moody?
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #10 on: December 19, 2010, 02:18:54 PM »

Cutler had the momentum on his side. polls showed him winning a lot of moderate republicans who thought LePage was too extreme. so, he was at 20-25% in polls and many democrats thought he was the only person able to defeat lepage and that mitchell would lose anyways so they decided to vote for cutler, who is actually a moderae democrat

That is misleading. Not a single poll showed Cutler getting significant Republican support. Polls showed LePage with a very unified Republican base, and Cutler getting support from unenrolled voters and centrist Democrats. It was the Democratic base that was disunited, not the Republican base.

For example, the final PPP poll showed LePage with the support of 71% of Republicans while Mitchell got the support of just 51% of Democrats.  Unenrolled voters went 40% Cutler, 31% LePage, 17% Mitchell.  Other polls earlier in the race showed a similar pattern, and since there were no exit polls, we don't know exactly what happened on Election Day.

Cutler cobbled together a coalition of unenrolled voters, moderate Democrats, and a few (not a "lot") of Republicans. In Maine, a partisan candidate having the support of 70% - 80% of their party is a fairly normal baseline of support.

In short, Cutler was competitive because Libby Mitchell was too liberal for independents and much of her own party, not because Paul LePage was too conservative. LePage did a better job holding his party together than Libby, and he had more appeal amongst independents.

Also, the title in Maine is "Secretary of State", not "Secretary of the State", so the acronym should be SOS.


Yes, I was thinking about moderate independents and republicans (its obvious hat cutler received huge support from unenrolled people). and I guess he got about 15-18% of republican vote, or maybe 20%. That's a lot of crossover support Wink
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