Who do you think may have a "silent majority" that could swing the election.

[RRB]

-

[J. J.]

It it the angry white male who will show up in droves to vote for McCain?

Is it the far right who will show up because of Palin?

Is it a huge minority turnout for Obama?

Is it a huge turn out of young people for Obama?

Is it the Bush haters who have been waiting for this election day for 8 years?

etc, etc, etc

No, but I think a lying minority might screw up the polling.

[Stranger in a strange land]

It it the angry white male who will show up in droves to vote for McCain?

Is it the far right who will show up because of Palin?

I don't think they can much more than they did in 2004. This is one majority that isn't silent. The big question is whether Palin is enough for McCain to connect with these types of voters to the degree that Bush did.

Is it a huge minority turnout for Obama?

Is it a huge turn out of young people for Obama?

maybe, but these voters are notorious for saying they're going to vote and then not doing so.

Is it the Bush haters who have been waiting for this election day for 8 years?

etc, etc, etc

no, there was 2004. However, Bush has succeeded in turning an entire generation against the Republican party. That will hurt McCain, and it will hurt future Republican candidates more when more of them reach voting age and start to actually vote.

[Punditty]

Obama's skills as a community organizer (laugh if you must, but he helped displaced workers get jobs, get help and maintain dignity, which is more than I can say for his GOP opponents) will tell the tale come Election Day. Look for stories touting his effectiveness at organizing and getting out the vote to be one of the many prevalent "How Obama Won" themes in the days immediately following the election.

Punditty

http://www.allvoices.com/users/Punditty

[J. J.]

Obama's skills as a community organizer (laugh if you must, but he helped displaced workers get jobs, get help and maintain dignity, which is more than I can say for his GOP opponents) will tell the tale come Election Day. Look for stories touting his effectiveness at organizing and getting out the vote to be one of the many prevalent "How Obama Won" themes in the days immediately following the election.

Punditty

http://www.allvoices.com/users/Punditty

If he does as well on election day as he did in Chicago, McCain has a shot at NY.

The problem is not that Democrats can't get organized.  It is that there is no new organization that can be created at the grassroots level in six months.

[memphis]

Nixon's the one!

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

The Undecideds

[rockhound]

Minority turnout, including real, fraudulent, and made up by the pundits.

[Zarn]

The zombie vote... No one ever polls them.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Obama's skills as a community organizer (laugh if you must, but he helped displaced workers get jobs, get help and maintain dignity, which is more than I can say for his GOP opponents) will tell the tale come Election Day. Look for stories touting his effectiveness at organizing and getting out the vote to be one of the many prevalent "How Obama Won" themes in the days immediately following the election.

Punditty

http://www.allvoices.com/users/Punditty

If he does as well on election day as he did in Chicago, McCain has a shot at NY.

The problem is not that Democrats can't get organized.  It is that there is no new organization that can be created at the grassroots level in six months.

Exact;y!

I don't understand why Obama didn't spend the time and money to recruit, organize, train, plan and implement such an effort months ago.

Perhaps he was simply overconfident.

[J. J.]

Nixon's the one!

This might tax your memory, but what was the margin in that race?  Did McGovern win? 

(I frankly think this one is going to look a lot like 2000.)

[J. J.]

Exact;y!

I don't understand why Obama didn't spend the time and money to recruit, organize, train, plan and implement such an effort months ago.

Perhaps he was simply overconfident.

It's even more basic that that.

Assume something simple: A literature drop.

The area may have 1000 houses, but only 500 of them have registered voters.  A good local guy that basically knows where the registered voters are might be able to drop them in an afternoon, maybe coming back after he gets the new list of registered voters and dropping the stuff off at the new voter's houses.  Someone untrained might leave the material at each residence, taking up more time and using more resources.  They'll both get the same result, but the local guy will do it more quickly and more cheaply. 

On election day, the local guy might know that for Sally to vote, you'll have call her before Noon, because she goes to work at 1:00 PM.   The new volunteer may not know that.

It makes sence to use the people in place, supplemented with new volunteers, but if so, Obama is using the existing organization.

[JSojourner]

Minority turnout, including real, fraudulent, and made up by the pundits.

Like all that fraudulent minority turnout in Florida in 2000.  Yeah, okay.

[Lief 🗽]

Exact;y!

I don't understand why Obama didn't spend the time and money to recruit, organize, train, plan and implement such an effort months ago.

Perhaps he was simply overconfident.

It's even more basic that that.

Assume something simple: A literature drop.

The area may have 1000 houses, but only 500 of them have registered voters.  A good local guy that basically knows where the registered voters are might be able to drop them in an afternoon, maybe coming back after he gets the new list of registered voters and dropping the stuff off at the new voter's houses.  Someone untrained might leave the material at each residence, taking up more time and using more resources.  They'll both get the same result, but the local guy will do it more quickly and more cheaply. 

On election day, the local guy might know that for Sally to vote, you'll have call her before Noon, because she goes to work at 1:00 PM.   The new volunteer may not know that.

It makes sence to use the people in place, supplemented with new volunteers, but if so, Obama is using the existing organization.

I've been canvassing before. You're a given a sheet with a list of homes with registered voters and what primaries they voted in. There's no guessing whether or not someone is registered. Try again.

[J. J.]

Exact;y!

I don't understand why Obama didn't spend the time and money to recruit, organize, train, plan and implement such an effort months ago.

Perhaps he was simply overconfident.

It's even more basic that that.

Assume something simple: A literature drop.

The area may have 1000 houses, but only 500 of them have registered voters.  A good local guy that basically knows where the registered voters are might be able to drop them in an afternoon, maybe coming back after he gets the new list of registered voters and dropping the stuff off at the new voter's houses.  Someone untrained might leave the material at each residence, taking up more time and using more resources.  They'll both get the same result, but the local guy will do it more quickly and more cheaply. 

On election day, the local guy might know that for Sally to vote, you'll have call her before Noon, because she goes to work at 1:00 PM.   The new volunteer may not know that.

It makes sence to use the people in place, supplemented with new volunteers, but if so, Obama is using the existing organization.

I've been canvassing before. You're a given a sheet with a list of homes with registered voters and what primaries they voted in. There's no guessing whether or not someone is registered. Try again.

You can't do that now, because there are no updated street lists. The list your using (in PA at least) is from late April.  And, as you pointed out, you've been out before. 

[big bad fab]

Latinos, for Obama.

And white blue-collar men, reluctantly for Obama,
if McCain can't convince them that the Paulson bailout is bad for us in the middle-long term. And he won't be able to do it, as the MSM and even the Democrats are sure another pouring of billions and trillions is what is needed.

What did Greenspan and Bush after the Internet bubble ? Made debt far easier. And now, we're there.

[Zarn]

I guess no one believes that PUMAs are an entity.

[memphis]

I guess no one believes that PUMAs are an entity.

They would have been more likely to vote for McCain if his female runningmate were frumpy. Feminists are highly threatened by skirts and heels.

[J. J.]

I guess no one believes that PUMAs are an entity.

They would have been more likely to vote for McCain if his female runningmate were frumpy. Feminists are highly threatened by skirts and heels.

I doubt if Palin attracts the PUMA's, but I doubt that she repells them.  She gets the working class vote, or at least attempts to.

[Alcon]

You can't do that now, because there are no updated street lists. The list your using (in PA at least) is from late April.  And, as you pointed out, you've been out before. 

Late April?  Where do you get that from?  PA has a dynamically updated database online.  I sincerely doubt they haven't updated their public registration file since April.  That would make them worse than any state I've ever dealt with.  Most do it monthly, and counties can generally provide you with an instantaneous list.

I sincerely doubt PA is both totally centralized and hasn't updated since April, but if so, shame on PA.  (But since most of the nation isn't PA...)

[big bad fab]

I guess no one believes that PUMAs are an entity.

They would have been more likely to vote for McCain if his female runningmate were frumpy. Feminists are highly threatened by skirts and heels.

I doubt if Palin attracts the PUMA's, but I doubt that she repells them.  She gets the working class vote, or at least attempts to.

The problem is that this crisis is SO frightening thaht even white women, even white blue-collars will vote for Obama: Obma just need 4 or 5 points more among them and that's all.

[Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!]

I guess no one believes that PUMAs are an entity.

the PUMA'S make a lot of noise but there  are less of them then people realize.

[Zarn]

Are you sure about that?