OR: Research 2000: Dkos: Merkley pulls ahead in OR

[Wiz in Wis]

New Poll: Oregon Senator by Research 2000 on 2008-09-24

Summary: D: 45%, R: 40%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

Confirms the SUSA poll.

Replacing Smith with Merkley would be awesome.

[Aizen]

ahahahahah

the republicans collapsing in yet another state

lol republicans

[TheresNoMoney]

I think the Dems have a good chance to pick up 7, maybe 8, seats this cycle.

[bgwah]

I've been thinking Smith would win for a long time, but the Constitution Party candidate is probably going to get around 5%. The CP usually does well in Oregon (for some reason! their candidate for Governor in 2006 got 4%) and Smith's liberal-pandering is only going to make the bleeding worse. I'm thinking Merkley might actually win this one narrowly, now. It's going to be hard for Smith to survive a decent Democratic opponent and an excellent performance by the CP.

[Keystone Phil]

I've been thinking Smith would win for a long time, but the Constitution Party candidate is probably going to get around 5%. The CP usually does well in Oregon (for some reason! their candidate for Governor in 2006 got 4%) and Smith's liberal-pandering is only going to make the bleeding worse. I'm thinking Merkley might actually win this one narrowly, now. It's going to be hard for Smith to survive a decent Democratic opponent and an excellent performance by the CP.

Oregon is a very polarized state. Conservatives there are often very conservative.

[bgwah]

I've been thinking Smith would win for a long time, but the Constitution Party candidate is probably going to get around 5%. The CP usually does well in Oregon (for some reason! their candidate for Governor in 2006 got 4%) and Smith's liberal-pandering is only going to make the bleeding worse. I'm thinking Merkley might actually win this one narrowly, now. It's going to be hard for Smith to survive a decent Democratic opponent and an excellent performance by the CP.

Oregon is a very polarized state. Conservatives there are often very conservative.

They are in Washington, too. I'll never forget the CP giving the Democrats a free seat in Congress in 1998!!

[Ronnie]

Ugh, we are really falling apart here.

[NOVA Green]

I'm actually fairly surprised at this shift, because Merkely hasn't run a particularly strong campaign here.

I think what you might be seeing is a bit of a backlash from Smith's incessant negative ads that are turning off sections of the target suburban audience Smith is trying to reach. Defections from the right to the CP don't help either, although I am not convinced that they will score 4-5%.

[Eraserhead]

I thought Smith would win this one for quite a while. Maybe not.