Romney would pick up the normal democrat states, plus Utah and other states with a reasonable proportion of Mormon voters - Nevada, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. He'd also win Michigan (if you don't include it under the "normal democrat states" statement), but would lose Iowa.
Palin would win big in the South and in Alaska. Evangelicals would deliver her those states.
I imagine it would look something like this:
Palin (Blue): 263
Romney (Green): 275
MD is close. Recounting for weeks and weeks and whoever wins it wins the election, although I'd lean toward Romney winning it. Democrats grudgingly vote Romney to prevent Palin from winning.
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