Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Bacon King]

Maybe a lot of young voters are waiting until election day to cast their first vote for president? First hand (anecdotal evidence!) I know quite a few people who are doing so back in Gawgeuh.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Maybe a lot of young voters are waiting until election day to cast their first vote for president? First hand (anecdotal evidence!) I know quite a few people who are doing so back in Gawgeuh.

Thats what my friends and I are doing.

[Verily]

Maybe a lot of young voters are waiting until election day to cast their first vote for president? First hand (anecdotal evidence!) I know quite a few people who are doing so back in Gawgeuh.

Might be heavy absentee voting among college students, too. I'm not sure if the IN and NC early voting numbers include absentees; Florida's numbers do, but Florida's absentees are always absurdly Republican and much larger than in most states so the college vote wouldn't really appear.

[Tender Branson]

The North Carolina Board of Elections today announced that it would extend early voting hours on Saturday, the last day people can cast ballots in the state before Nov. 4.

The emergency decision affects “one-stop” registration and voting sites in the state’s 100 counties, which have experienced long lines since opening on Oct. 16. The sites can now stay open four hours later, until 5 p.m., on Saturday.

According to The Associated Press, more than 1.7 million people, just under a third of the state’s registered voters, had cast ballots by Wednesday evening in the surprise swing state.

The North Carolina decision comes as states around the country have experienced heavy early turnout, with Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida extending early voting hours from eight hours a day to 12 on Tuesday.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/north-carolina-extends-early-voting/

[Lief 🗽]

A few theories about young people early voting:

1) Most significantly, I think, early voting locations are usually fewer than regular voting locations. When I was canvassing in Columbus, for instance, the only early voting location of the entire city was downtown, which is quite a bit away from the OSU campus, the main location of young voters in the city. The Obama people were busing college students down to the voting place, but if they wait until election day, they'll be able to just vote at the polling location in their precinct, which is much closer. This is true of most college students, I would think.

2) Absentee voting. Unless you change your registration when you go to a new college, which a significant number of students do not, you're going to vote absentee, which to my knowledge isn't being counted along with the early vote statistics.

3) Young people are also generally better at procrastinating and thinking that the norm doesn't apply to them. I know that's a generalization, but it's at least in party true. I'm sure plenty of young people are just putting off voting until voting day, and assuming that the lines won't really be as long as everyone says they are. This could potentially be kind of problematic for the Obama people.

[Sam Spade]

That post blinds me. What does it mean. Does Obama have Texas wrapped up?

These are all urban/suburban counties.  Some of the counties are not uniform and require a more detailed look at each of the polling places.  Others are pretty uniform.

[Sam Spade]

Updated the Texas tracker.

[J. J.]

3) Young people are also generally better at procrastinating and thinking that the norm doesn't apply to them. I know that's a generalization, but it's at least in party true. I'm sure plenty of young people are just putting off voting until voting day, and assuming that the lines won't really be as long as everyone says they are. This could potentially be kind of problematic for the Obama people.

On the third point, that could hurt.  The one state where they are recording by age, NC, has the 18-29 range at 12.6, which thing is slightly higher.

Black turnout is running about 5% ahead of population.

[Josh/Devilman88]

2008 North Carolina General Election Absentee Stats as of 10/30/2008 10:00pm
TOTALS:
ONESTOP 1,907,230                         Total Absentee Ballots Cast: 2,076,990
CIVILIAN 160,630                             Total Registered Voters: 6,232,230
MILITARY 6,171                                  Turnout: 33%
OVERSEAS 2,959


It hit the 2 million mark!

[Alcon]

FLORIDA -- One dead in early voting election sabotage attempt in Indian River County.  More details.  Developing...

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA -- One dead in early voting election sabotage attempt in Indian River County.  More details.  Developing...

Wow. Republicans are pulling all tricks now to rig the election and to keep voters away!

Must have been Romney-inspired:

[Sam Spade]

Just in case anyone wants to know where I am, I'm doing a decently in-depth review of Tennessee early voting, which concluded yesterday and whose numbers have been posted in full today.

[J. J.]

FLORIDA -- One dead in early voting election sabotage attempt in Indian River County.  More details.  Developing...

Wow. Republicans are pulling all tricks now to rig the election and to keep voters away!

Must have been Romney-inspired:

No, the squirrels are Democrats.

[J. J.]

Nationally, in 2004, the 18-29 percent of vote was 16%.

http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

NC, the only state that breaks it down, has it at 13.2% in early voting.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

My guess is that it will be comparable to 2004 and that will not be a Youth Surge.

The black vote, however, appears to be much higher, about 4-5 points.

[Alcon]

Georgia: Genuinely incredible lines in urban Atlanta

North Carolina: An extension, under protest from the state GOP, which suddenly is worried about pollworker fatigue or something.

[Alcon]

Nationally, in 2004, the 18-29 percent of vote was 16%.

http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

NC, the only state that breaks it down, has it at 13.2% in early voting.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

My guess is that it will be comparable to 2004 and that will not be a Youth Surge.

The black vote, however, appears to be much higher, about 4-5 points.

What % of the NC electorate in 2004, per the state, was 18-29?  I can't find this information.  I would prefer early voters above even that.  General election voters were 14% 18-29 in NC in 2004, but we already know that the NC exit poll was screwy.

[Tender Branson]

Nationally, in 2004, the 18-29 percent of vote was 16%.

http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

NC, the only state that breaks it down, has it at 13.2% in early voting.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

My guess is that it will be comparable to 2004 and that will not be a Youth Surge.

The black vote, however, appears to be much higher, about 4-5 points.

What % of the NC electorate in 2004, per the state, was 18-29?  I can't find this information.  I would prefer early voters above even that.  General election voters were 14% 18-29 in NC in 2004, but we already know that the NC exit poll was screwy.

Maybe I can help:

According to the July 2004 Census estimates, 1.405.343 people in NC were aged between 18-29. They accounted for 16.5% of the total population, which was 8.538.378 back then.

The 18-29 age group made up 16.2% in the July 2007 estimates.

http://www.census.gov/popest/states/asrh/tables/SC-EST2007-02-37.xls

[Tender Branson]

Miami-Dade County Exit polling by Bendixen & Associates (8,683 voters)

Bottom-line result: Obama 61%, McCain 39%

The demographics of those interviewed: 55% Hispanic, 25% White, 20% Black

Among all Hispanics voting, Obama was favored by 47 percent, McCain 53
Among White voters, Obama 64 percent, McCain 36
Among African-American voters, Obama 98 percent

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_columnist_mikethomas/2008/10/exit-polling-da.html

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/obamas_hispanic_vote_strong_in.html

Note: Gore and Kerry got 53% in Miami-Dade.

...

Blacks are giving Democrats an edge in early voting

A huge increase in early voting has given Democrats a decided advantage over Republicans in Florida -- a major departure from statewide voting trends four years ago, according to a Miami Herald analysis of early and absentee ballots cast so far this year.

Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.

That's a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.

The recent Democratic gains have been most pronounced in early voting, where Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by 432,000 out of nearly two million voters.

Black voters have made the difference, accounting for 16 percent of the early and absentee voters so far -- with 86 percent of them registered Democrats. In 2004, black turnout for early and absentee voting was a bit more than 10 percent of the total.

Black turnout has been especially high in the state's urban areas. In Broward County, blacks accounted for 39 percent of all early voters at the polls through Thursday; in Miami-Dade County, it was 30 percent. In Orange County, 30 percent of all voters were black; in Duval County, it was 36 percent.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/751034.html

Interesting: If 30% of Miami-Dade's early & absentee voters have been Black so far, why is Bendixen's Exit poll only showing 20% Blacks in the county ? And the exit poll isn't even including GOP-heavy absentee ballots yet ...

In Miami-Dade, about 407.000 have voted so far (273.000 early + 134.000 absentee) and I expect another 130.000 to be added until early and absentee voting ends.

[Lunar]

FLORIDA -- One dead in early voting election sabotage attempt in Indian River County.  More details.  Developing...

Wow. Republicans are pulling all tricks now to rig the election and to keep voters away!

Must have been Romney-inspired:

No, the squirrels are Democrats.

What party is this squirrel?

[Tender Branson]

Another "exit poll" from the FL bay-area:

The Tribune surveyed 330 voters outside polling areas on Wednesday and Thursday in Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties.

In the Tribune survey, Bay area Republicans more often broke ranks to vote for Obama than Democrats did for McCain. Nineteen percent of Republicans interviewed cast ballots for Obama, compared with just 3 percent of Democrats voting for McCain.

Among Independents, 52 percent cast ballots for Obama compared with 14 percent for McCain. Independents accounted for 20 percent of all voters surveyed.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/31/312041/early-voters-discuss-their-choice/

[J. J.]

Nationally, in 2004, the 18-29 percent of vote was 16%.

http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

NC, the only state that breaks it down, has it at 13.2% in early voting.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

My guess is that it will be comparable to 2004 and that will not be a Youth Surge.

The black vote, however, appears to be much higher, about 4-5 points.

What % of the NC electorate in 2004, per the state, was 18-29?  I can't find this information.  I would prefer early voters above even that.  General election voters were 14% 18-29 in NC in 2004, but we already know that the NC exit poll was screwy.

Nor can I find them; I did attempt to.  My guess is that the state population trends a bit younger that the national average (NC isn't a retirement state).

Branson might have something.

It doesn't look like the there will be a "Youth Surge," though it might be a higher percentage.  "J.J.'s Second Rule of Elections" will probably hold.

Black turnout is running very high.  In NC, it looks like it 4-5 points above population.

[Josh/Devilman88]

2008 North Carolina General Election Absentee Stats as of 11/01/2008 8:00am
TOTALS:
ONESTOP 2,166,723         Total Absentee Ballots Cast: 2,355,924
CIVILIAN 179,487             Total Registered Voters: 6,232,230
MILITARY 6,563                  Turnout: 38%
OVERSEAS 3,151

[Alcon]

No, North Carolina youth population is not above national average; it ranks 34th.  But I don't have voter registration stats.

[J. J.]

No, North Carolina youth population is not above national average; it ranks 34th.  But I don't have voter registration stats.

In 2004, it looks like a 16% share of the vote and 14% in 2000.  The youth rate of registration was 45% in 2004, and 40% in 2000.  It lagged in 2004 about 4 points behind the national average.

http://www.civicyouth.org/PopUps/2008states/quick_facts_08_final_nc.pdf

I'd suggest you look at the cross referencing for race.

Today, in the early voting, it's 13.9%.  Keep in mind, however, that there has been a heavy black turnout as well, in the early voting.  I think that is where any surge will be delivered.

[J. J.]

It looks like the black share of the voters has dropped slightly in NC.

It also looks like the Republican share has increased in FL over where it was.