Obama and the white working class.

[Gustaf]

looks like I was right about whites in the states that mattered. I was wrong about Appalachia and the Deep South, but Obama didn't need them as it turned out, and he never had a chance of winning LA, MS, TN, or AL, and only a very, very weak chance of winning WV.

The Muslim rumor failed and probably backfired. Obama's race didn't turn hurt him nearly as much as many thought it would for two reasons. First, he was able to use his "difference" to his advantage. Change vs more of the same. Nothing says change like a young black guy. Secondly, and far more importantly, he ran on the economy and specifically avoided running on black issues. How many times did you hear him mention police brutality or affirmative action?

The financial crisis enabled him to get over the issue of race.

This is a pretty standard excuse being used now, but is anyone else kind of skeptical? Anyone else notice that it appears the shift after that happened in very affluent normally Republican voting areas, and supposedly racist working class Democratic areas were always with him?

It's easy to use this as an excuse as to why Obama won Pennsylvania, but McCain still hadn't led in a poll there for almost 5 months when it happened.

What kind of data are you basing this on? I imagine it is hard to tell, since sub-sampling is notoriously difficult. But it seems to me that Obama was getting a lot of support from white suburban type of voters from the beginning and that the key problem he had was with white working-class voters. This I see as the reason for him being not better than tied despite all the dynamics working in favour of the Democrats.

It has been a mainstream opinion for a long time that blue-collar voters are more inclined to vote Democrat if they vote on economic issues, Republican if they vote on cultural values. From there, the logic is pretty straight-forward.

But, if you have sources that refute this, feel free. I'm ready to change my mind, since I haven't really researched this that carefully.

Stranger: 2 of your 3 points seem to be unrelated to the crisis, and explain why Obama did so well with suburban voters, not why he increased disproportinoately among them after the crisis struck (something I'm still not convinced of).

[they don't love you like i love you]

looks like I was right about whites in the states that mattered. I was wrong about Appalachia and the Deep South, but Obama didn't need them as it turned out, and he never had a chance of winning LA, MS, TN, or AL, and only a very, very weak chance of winning WV.

The Muslim rumor failed and probably backfired. Obama's race didn't turn hurt him nearly as much as many thought it would for two reasons. First, he was able to use his "difference" to his advantage. Change vs more of the same. Nothing says change like a young black guy. Secondly, and far more importantly, he ran on the economy and specifically avoided running on black issues. How many times did you hear him mention police brutality or affirmative action?

The financial crisis enabled him to get over the issue of race.

This is a pretty standard excuse being used now, but is anyone else kind of skeptical? Anyone else notice that it appears the shift after that happened in very affluent normally Republican voting areas, and supposedly racist working class Democratic areas were always with him?

It's easy to use this as an excuse as to why Obama won Pennsylvania, but McCain still hadn't led in a poll there for almost 5 months when it happened.

What kind of data are you basing this on? I imagine it is hard to tell, since sub-sampling is notoriously difficult. But it seems to me that Obama was getting a lot of support from white suburban type of voters from the beginning and that the key problem he had was with white working-class voters. This I see as the reason for him being not better than tied despite all the dynamics working in favour of the Democrats.

It has been a mainstream opinion for a long time that blue-collar voters are more inclined to vote Democrat if they vote on economic issues, Republican if they vote on cultural values. From there, the logic is pretty straight-forward.

But, if you have sources that refute this, feel free. I'm ready to change my mind, since I haven't really researched this that carefully.

Stranger: 2 of your 3 points seem to be unrelated to the crisis, and explain why Obama did so well with suburban voters, not why he increased disproportinoately among them after the crisis struck (something I'm still not convinced of).

Virginia is a clue. It swung to Obama greatly after the crisis, and look at how the areas in it swung.

I could give more in depth analysis if I had more time, but I'm going to work in an hour.

[Stranger in a strange land]

looks like I was right about whites in the states that mattered. I was wrong about Appalachia and the Deep South, but Obama didn't need them as it turned out, and he never had a chance of winning LA, MS, TN, or AL, and only a very, very weak chance of winning WV.

The Muslim rumor failed and probably backfired. Obama's race didn't turn hurt him nearly as much as many thought it would for two reasons. First, he was able to use his "difference" to his advantage. Change vs more of the same. Nothing says change like a young black guy. Secondly, and far more importantly, he ran on the economy and specifically avoided running on black issues. How many times did you hear him mention police brutality or affirmative action?

The financial crisis enabled him to get over the issue of race.

This is a pretty standard excuse being used now, but is anyone else kind of skeptical? Anyone else notice that it appears the shift after that happened in very affluent normally Republican voting areas, and supposedly racist working class Democratic areas were always with him?

It's easy to use this as an excuse as to why Obama won Pennsylvania, but McCain still hadn't led in a poll there for almost 5 months when it happened.

What kind of data are you basing this on? I imagine it is hard to tell, since sub-sampling is notoriously difficult. But it seems to me that Obama was getting a lot of support from white suburban type of voters from the beginning and that the key problem he had was with white working-class voters. This I see as the reason for him being not better than tied despite all the dynamics working in favour of the Democrats.

It has been a mainstream opinion for a long time that blue-collar voters are more inclined to vote Democrat if they vote on economic issues, Republican if they vote on cultural values. From there, the logic is pretty straight-forward.

But, if you have sources that refute this, feel free. I'm ready to change my mind, since I haven't really researched this that carefully.

Stranger: 2 of your 3 points seem to be unrelated to the crisis, and explain why Obama did so well with suburban voters, not why he increased disproportinoately among them after the crisis struck (something I'm still not convinced of).

I'm more interested in finding out why racism didn't hurt Obama as much as many people (myself included) thought it would, and why Obama did much better in the suburbs than most other Democrats would have done. In Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, it seems that his overperformance in the suburbs allowed him to cancel out underperformance in areas that swung against him due to race and failure to connect culturally. He lost Appalachia badly and the Florida panhandle swung against him hard, yet he still did about as well in these states as a white candidate with similar views would have done. Increased turnout among blacks was certainly a big factor also, a group with whom Kerry had way underperformed.

As for why suburban voters went disproportionately to Obama after the crisis, it may have been partly for reasons not directly related to the crisis: the Palin implosion and the whole Real America/Fake America nonsense hurt the McCain/Palin ticket most in urban and suburban areas.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Obama should still worry about letting down the black community. Which will never be happy and therefore will be his harshest critics.

Well they'll never be happy because they'll never be equal in our society.. and of course there is nothing Obama can do about that.

They already have affirmative action (reverse discrimination) which techically gives them more value than whites in our society.

[TeePee4Prez]

Did I miss something?

Was I supposed to vote for McCain?

I am Joe Six Pack.

[Keystone Phil]

I am Joe Six Pack.

I think you need to have...oh...the whole six pack thing going.

[NOVA Green]

Not totally sure about other parts of the country, but Obama did just fine amongst White working-class voters out here...

This was particularly true in urban areas (such as North-Portland and West Eugene), but also based on precinct data even in small mill-town areas where Democrats have struggled in recent cycles.

Granted, some of his results in these areas were lower than Dukakis got in '88, but it was still a solid reversal from the pattern of declining Democratic support in much of White working-class rural and small-town Oregon.

Even looking at county returns in other parts of the country, it seems like Obama's lack of support amongst the much-vaunted White working-class is overstated, with the exception of Appalachia and the Deep South, which have been problems for the party since 1976.

[TeePee4Prez]

I am Joe Six Pack.

I think you need to have...oh...the whole six pack thing going.

Ok, I am Joe Kegger, but still.  I was mocking the Sarah Palin catchphrase thing.

[Governor PiT]

No one cares about the White working class in politics. If you have money you get what you want and if you are a minority you get special privileges as well but if you are poor working class and white than you are screwed.

[TeePee4Prez]

No one cares about the White working class in politics. If you have money you get what you want and if you are a minority you get special privileges as well but if you are poor working class and white than you are screwed.

Haven't really got to know you yet, BUT..... Yeah there are times I think you're right.  Add being overweight, male and average height (unless you're a Kennedy then you become a Senator)  You get discriminated against and no one cares hell it's even highly supported.  Even our own women want to now get with men of color at the clubs nowadays.  And it's not just one club or me for that matter.  I'm starting to think young white women want to piss off their parents or something.  I hate being racist, but these black dudes act so cocky about it you just want to hit some of them.  My inner Rizzocrat was boiling after last weekend.  Should I change my avatar to (I)? I really am confused sometimes and I have to admit this last election gave me the spins at times.

....  whipps out the Confederate Flag with States........



Ok, not yet, but I'm starting to think that there are people who think that we have to take shots at the white male to makeup for past discrimination and would hate to think that Obama's election is now causing black men to be more aggressive around white women.  I'm not saying all black men but I find some of them think whites are soft and can be pushed around.  If I were to have a bout of jungle fever and go to a black club like SOLO and do the same thing, I know I'd get my ass whooped handily.  Amazingly, I rarely see black women at some places I go, but see a lot of black men looking for white women.

I voted for Obama... want out of Iraq.... no more Bush policies..  holds nose.

[Keystone Phil]

No one cares about the White working class in politics. If you have money you get what you want and if you are a minority you get special privileges as well but if you are poor working class and white than you are screwed.

Haven't really got to know you yet, BUT..... Yeah there are times I think you're right.  Add being overweight, male and average height (unless you're a Kennedy then you become a Senator)  You get discriminated against and no one cares hell it's even highly supported.  Even our own women want to now get with men of color at the clubs nowadays.  And it's not just one club or me for that matter.  I'm starting to think young white women want to piss off their parents or something.  I hate being racist, but these black dudes act so cocky about it you just want to hit some of them.  My inner Rizzocrat was boiling after last weekend.  Should I change my avatar to (I)? I really am confused sometimes and I have to admit this last election gave me the spins at times.

....  whipps out the Confederate Flag with States........



Ok, not yet, but I'm starting to think that there are people who think that we have to take shots at the white male to makeup for past discrimination and would hate to think that Obama's election is now causing black men to be more aggressive around white women.  I'm not saying all black men but I find some of them think whites are soft and can be pushed around.  If I were to have a bout of jungle fever and go to a black club like SOLO and do the same thing, I know I'd get my ass whooped handily.  Amazingly, I rarely see black women at some places I go, but see a lot of black men looking for white women.

I voted for Obama... want out of Iraq.... no more Bush policies..  holds nose.

And you were branding me the closet racist awhile ago...

[Stranger in a strange land]

No one cares about the White working class in politics. If you have money you get what you want and if you are a minority you get special privileges as well but if you are poor working class and white than you are screwed.

Haven't really got to know you yet, BUT..... Yeah there are times I think you're right.  Add being overweight, male and average height (unless you're a Kennedy then you become a Senator)  You get discriminated against and no one cares hell it's even highly supported.  Even our own women want to now get with men of color at the clubs nowadays.  And it's not just one club or me for that matter.  I'm starting to think young white women want to piss off their parents or something.  I hate being racist, but these black dudes act so cocky about it you just want to hit some of them.  My inner Rizzocrat was boiling after last weekend.  Should I change my avatar to (I)? I really am confused sometimes and I have to admit this last election gave me the spins at times.

....  whipps out the Confederate Flag with States........



Ok, not yet, but I'm starting to think that there are people who think that we have to take shots at the white male to makeup for past discrimination and would hate to think that Obama's election is now causing black men to be more aggressive around white women.  I'm not saying all black men but I find some of them think whites are soft and can be pushed around.  If I were to have a bout of jungle fever and go to a black club like SOLO and do the same thing, I know I'd get my ass whooped handily.  Amazingly, I rarely see black women at some places I go, but see a lot of black men looking for white women.

I voted for Obama... want out of Iraq.... no more Bush policies..  holds nose.

And you were branding me the closet racist awhile ago...

I'm not even sure it's so much that as that he seems to be blaming Obama for his inability to get laid

[TeePee4Prez]

No one cares about the White working class in politics. If you have money you get what you want and if you are a minority you get special privileges as well but if you are poor working class and white than you are screwed.

Haven't really got to know you yet, BUT..... Yeah there are times I think you're right.  Add being overweight, male and average height (unless you're a Kennedy then you become a Senator)  You get discriminated against and no one cares hell it's even highly supported.  Even our own women want to now get with men of color at the clubs nowadays.  And it's not just one club or me for that matter.  I'm starting to think young white women want to piss off their parents or something.  I hate being racist, but these black dudes act so cocky about it you just want to hit some of them.  My inner Rizzocrat was boiling after last weekend.  Should I change my avatar to (I)? I really am confused sometimes and I have to admit this last election gave me the spins at times.

....  whipps out the Confederate Flag with States........



Ok, not yet, but I'm starting to think that there are people who think that we have to take shots at the white male to makeup for past discrimination and would hate to think that Obama's election is now causing black men to be more aggressive around white women.  I'm not saying all black men but I find some of them think whites are soft and can be pushed around.  If I were to have a bout of jungle fever and go to a black club like SOLO and do the same thing, I know I'd get my ass whooped handily.  Amazingly, I rarely see black women at some places I go, but see a lot of black men looking for white women.

I voted for Obama... want out of Iraq.... no more Bush policies..  holds nose.

And you were branding me the closet racist awhile ago...

I'm not even sure it's so much that as that he seems to be blaming Obama for his inability to get laid

Not really.  Only have to blame myself there, BUT some of these guys can be annoying.  Some black guys are so brazen it's sickening and in some cases it's worked to my benefit because an attractive white woman may use me as a "rescue" option when they get too aggressive.  I'm not saying hang them with nooses or kick them out at the door for being black, but it's amazing how brazen some of them are in majority white areas whereas I knew an Irish guy who dated a black woman from West Philly and he got his ass bear at a bar there simply for being with a black woman.