What will be the closest Senate Race?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:30:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  What will be the closest Senate Race?
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: What will be the closest Senate Race?  (Read 3002 times)
KeyKeeper
Turner22
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 331
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 2.09

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 29, 2008, 01:26:06 PM »

I believe NC and OR both will be with-in 2%.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2008, 02:16:19 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2008, 02:22:10 PM by brittain33 »

McConnell/Lunsford. All the other competitive Senate races (Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina) break for the D's by at least two points. Maine is safely Republican and Mississippi stays with Wicker.

Hey, go big or go home.
Logged
SamInTheSouth
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 389


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2008, 09:32:11 PM »

North Carolina and I think both candidates suck.
Logged
Sensei
senseiofj324
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,532
Panama


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2008, 09:41:27 PM »

OR

MN will be second. Call me crazy.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,875


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2008, 09:45:15 PM »

McConnell/Lunsford. All the other competitive Senate races (Oregon, Minnesota, North Carolina) break for the D's by at least two points. Maine is safely Republican and Mississippi stays with Wicker.

Hey, go big or go home.
I like this prediction, though I might switch KY with MS.
Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,137
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2008, 11:46:47 PM »

OR probably.
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,135
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2008, 03:05:55 AM »

     OR methinks, with an outside chance of NC & KY.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2008, 07:21:20 AM »

In response to the OR predictions, I think Merkley has too much opportunity to break away from Smith because of the state's partisan lean and Smith's increasingly flailing campaign efforts.
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2008, 03:57:03 PM »

NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible
Logged
CultureKing
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,249
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2008, 05:09:41 PM »

NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

LOL
Logged
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,079
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2008, 08:34:08 PM »

NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

And you call me stupid!!!!!!!!! You dumbass.
Logged
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,329
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2008, 08:44:12 PM »

NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

Not happening, DWTL.

I say Oregon, btw.
Logged
JSojourner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,510
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2008, 10:17:57 AM »

I think New Hampshire is going to be closer than we suspect.  I mean, like razor-thin.
Logged
DownWithTheLeft
downwithdaleft
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,548
Italy


Political Matrix
E: 9.16, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2008, 02:42:36 PM »

NJ, call me crazy but this race resembles Corzine/Franks in every way possible

And you call me stupid!!!!!!!!! You dumbass.
Yea, Josh you are smart because polls for a week back up slightly what you babble about Roll Eyes

It was amazing how intelligent the discussions were until you came back from your closet
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,563
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 01, 2008, 02:43:13 PM »

Kentucky
Logged
MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,812


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 01, 2008, 02:55:01 PM »

Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,542


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 01, 2008, 08:26:12 PM »

Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).


And you have to say that dead even usually goes to the challenger in a blue state like Oregon, which Obama is likely to carry handily. 
Logged
MarkWarner08
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,812


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 01, 2008, 09:54:13 PM »

Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).


And you have to say that dead even usually goes to the challenger in a blue state like Oregon, which Obama is likely to carry handily. 
Yes, and time's running out for Smith.  The national "experts" are generally clueless about Oregon politics. Case in point: Stu Rothenberg on the Oregon Senate race. "Yes, the Smith ads drive home the point, but they are striking many observers as the sort of late-October ad that a campaign might use as a game-changer, not the kind of TV spot that a confident incumbent would run in mid-September," wrote Rothenberg after Smith launched two ads attacking Merkley stance on crime.

Rothenberg is seemingly unaware that early voting in Oregon moves up the GOTV period by 2-3 weeks. Smith ran that ad because he's slipping among women in Clackamas and Washington Counties. Suburban women are apparently  being swayed by Merkley's focus on abortion, an issue on which Smith is outside the mainstream of Oregon opinion. Smith started defining Merkley in May, but while his ads have driven up Merkley's negatives, they've also polarized the electorate. Smith needs 15%-20% of the Democratic vote to win; he's now hovering around 15% among Democrats.

He's also antagonized his core constituency. While the conservative 3rd party candidate is unlikely to break 5%, he may win 3% ( most of which will come from Smith's right flank). These are the voters who are disgusted by Smith's association with Obama, Kerry, and local liberal Elizabeth Furse. In a tight election, those disaffected base voters could be decide the outcome.
Logged
TheresNoMoney
Scoonie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,907


Political Matrix
E: -3.25, S: -2.72

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2008, 09:14:06 AM »

Minnesota.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.052 seconds with 13 queries.