Right now, I'd say Oregon. Even Gordon Smith's internals reflect the public polling (i.e., this race id dead-even).
And you have to say that dead even usually goes to the challenger in a blue state like Oregon, which Obama is likely to carry handily.
Yes, and time's running out for Smith. The national "experts" are generally clueless about Oregon politics. Case in point: Stu Rothenberg on the Oregon Senate race. "Yes, the Smith ads drive home the point, but they are striking many observers as the sort of late-October ad that a campaign might use as a game-changer, not the kind of TV spot that a confident incumbent would run in mid-September," wrote Rothenberg after Smith launched two ads attacking Merkley stance on crime.
Rothenberg is seemingly unaware that early voting in Oregon moves up the GOTV period by 2-3 weeks. Smith ran that ad because he's slipping among women in Clackamas and Washington Counties. Suburban women are apparently being swayed by Merkley's focus on abortion, an issue on which Smith is outside the mainstream of Oregon opinion. Smith started defining Merkley in May, but while his ads have driven up Merkley's negatives, they've also polarized the electorate. Smith needs 15%-20% of the Democratic vote to win; he's now hovering around 15% among Democrats.
He's also antagonized his core constituency. While the conservative 3rd party candidate is unlikely to break 5%, he may win 3% ( most of which will come from Smith's right flank). These are the voters who are disgusted by Smith's association with Obama, Kerry, and local liberal Elizabeth Furse. In a tight election, those disaffected base voters could be decide the outcome.
