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| | | | | |-+  What state's polling do you not believe? (10/1)
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Poll
Question: As of tright now, which state has the most inaccurate polling?
Ohio-slight Obama   -3 (5.8%)
Florida-slight Obama   -9 (17.3%)
Virginia-slight Obama   -1 (1.9%)
New Hampshire-slight Obama   -4 (7.7%)
Missouri-slight McCain   -5 (9.6%)
Indiana-slight McCain   -2 (3.8%)
North Carolina-tossup   -13 (25%)
Nevada-tossup   -5 (9.6%)
Colorado-tossup   -7 (13.5%)
Pennsylvania-solid Obama   -3 (5.8%)
New Mexico-solid Obama   -0 (0%)
Iowa-solid Obama   -0 (0%)
Michigan-solid Obama   -0 (0%)
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Total Voters: 51

Author Topic: What state's polling do you not believe? (10/1)  (Read 3771 times)
RJ
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« on: October 01, 2008, 09:12:51 pm »

These are the states that have been seriously contested this election season. I threw out Wisconsin, Montana and Minnesota.

If you're an Obama fan, it's probably a little difficult to actually believe it's as good as it's looking for him right now. If you favor McCain, it may not be as bad as it looks. Which state won't live up to the hype and be a bit of a surprise on election day? Which state is closer or further apart then polling is telling us? If things continue on their present course, chances are not an individual one of these states will decide this thing, but it might give the parties an idea of what to look for (or perhaps where to start.)
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: October 01, 2008, 09:15:02 pm »

Probably Virginia.  I dont see how Obama has a lead that big in that state. 
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jfern
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« Reply #2 on: October 01, 2008, 09:25:06 pm »

North Carolina
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StatesRights
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« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2008, 10:09:11 pm »

Indiana or Virginia
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2008, 04:43:51 am »

Colorado, because it's slight Obama, not toss-up !
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2008, 11:35:35 am »

New Hampshire is not this close.
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RJ
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2008, 02:18:23 pm »

Colorado, because it's slight Obama, not toss-up !

There was a poll there last week showing McCain with a slight lead. Also, Colorado hasn't moved as much in recent days as Ohio or Florida.
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...but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2008, 05:31:47 pm »

I'm gonna say FL right now.
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2008, 05:32:10 pm »

Florida. I fail to understand how Obama's performing so well as he has in Florida, despite having unfavourable demographics. I believe on Election Night, that McCain should encounter for Obama by defeating him by five to six points.
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2008, 05:33:32 pm »

Indiana
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RJ
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2008, 10:00:12 am »

After seeing the most recent SUSA polls, I wish I put Minnesota on the list, now.
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...but she needs to get her sh**t together and drop this “positive campaign” bullsh**t.
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2008, 10:27:22 am »

None of them. Obama is leading by 4-7 points nationally at the moment. He should be ahead in VA, OH, FL, CO and NV and close in MO, IN, and NC.
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« Reply #12 on: October 03, 2008, 02:38:00 pm »

North Carolina, followed by Indiana.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2008, 02:39:34 pm »

Minnesota - McCain lead.
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Punditty
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« Reply #14 on: October 11, 2008, 09:11:28 pm »

Colorado. If the voting rolls haven't been purged by 25 percent as RFK Jr. asserts, then Obama will win there along the lines of 51-46 with 3 percent for other.
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J. J.
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« Reply #15 on: October 11, 2008, 09:29:05 pm »

I do not believe Obama is doing better in PA than in NJ.

Seriously, does anyone believe that?
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #16 on: October 11, 2008, 10:19:51 pm »

I do not believe Obama is doing better in PA than in NJ.

Seriously, does anyone believe that?

I can believe that he is doing better given what we know about Jersey, but I can't imagine him actually doing better come November 4th. The undecideds in those two states are going in opposite directions.
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Alcon
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« Reply #17 on: October 11, 2008, 10:20:27 pm »

If any:

North Carolina

Indiana's up there, Minnesota kinda too
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n/c
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« Reply #18 on: October 12, 2008, 02:28:37 am »

     Nevada. Given the demographic trends of the state, I can't believe that Obama is ahead by any less than ~5%.
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MR maverick
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« Reply #19 on: October 12, 2008, 05:50:08 am »

Ohio .. I don't see Obama being ahead atlest in terms of polling. Maybe some New young voters will make the difference on election night.
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Sbane
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« Reply #20 on: October 12, 2008, 06:24:28 am »

     Nevada. Given the demographic trends of the state, I can't believe that Obama is ahead by any less than ~5%.
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perdedor
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2008, 09:20:23 pm »

New Hampshire. Obama will win the state solidly.
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