which is more likely?
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Poll
Question: which is more likely?
#1
Barack Obama 330+ electoral votes		  
#2
John McCain 270+ electoral votes		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 46

Author Topic: which is more likely?  (Read 1999 times)
© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« on: October 02, 2008, 11:04:46 AM »
which is more likely?
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Nym90
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2008, 11:10:07 AM »
Obama 330+
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Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.
jmfcst
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2008, 11:14:55 AM »
Obama 330+
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2008, 11:19:03 AM »
Up until a few days ago I would have said McCain +270 but it does sort of feel like this thing is breaking in a big way...
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2008, 11:49:02 AM »
538.com says Obama 375+ is almost twice as likely as McCain 270+, so Obama 330+ obviously.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM »
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.
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Iosif
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« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2008, 01:04:46 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.

I remember when Clinton was going to walk the nomination.

That seems such a long time ago now.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2008, 01:17:42 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.

I'm not an Obama supporter.  I'm just asking a question.
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perdedor
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« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2008, 01:23:21 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.

Didn't you also think that the 2006 MA gubernatorial election was going to be close?
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SPQR
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« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2008, 01:30:02 PM »
Quote from: WalterMitty on October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.
Comparing South Dakota's meaningless,final primay with a GE is kinda excessive.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2008, 03:29:28 PM »
Quote from: italian-boy on October 02, 2008, 01:30:02 PM
Quote from: WalterMitty on October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.
Comparing South Dakota's meaningless,final primay with a GE is kinda excessive.
Walter's still incredibly bitter about how his Messiah lost to the insolent black guy.
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« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2008, 10:52:57 PM »
Quote from: 1967 on October 02, 2008, 01:23:21 PM
Quote from: WalterMitty on October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.

Didn't you also think that the 2006 MA gubernatorial election was going to be close?

The Ohio gubernatorial election also comes to mind. And Santorum.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2008, 10:54:21 PM »
No one else on this board has a worse track record of predicting elections than Walter Mitty.  He's definitely earned it!
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JSojourner
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2008, 10:56:01 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on October 02, 2008, 11:19:03 AM
Up until a few days ago I would have said McCain +270 but it does sort of feel like this thing is breaking in a big way...

I'm not audacious enough to have hope yet -- but something is building inside.  I just hope that it's, well, hope.  And not flatulence...
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BRTD
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« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2008, 10:56:13 PM »
Walter is the forum's Dick Morris.
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Barack Hussian YO MAMA!!!!
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« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2008, 10:57:57 PM »
« Edited: October 02, 2008, 11:00:39 PM by The Rascal King »
Quote from: WalterMitty on October 02, 2008, 12:23:57 PM
obama supporters getting cocky!  i wouldnt expect anything else.

remember guys, obama was going to win the nh primary by at least 5 points.  the sd primary..forget it.  everyone in the damn state has endorsed obama..including the great tom daschle.

no doubt mccain has had a rough stretch of late.  im not saying mccain is going to win.  he could.  but i do suspect the contest will be mighty close, regardless of the winner.

we still have along way to in this election anything can still happen who would have thought
two weeks ago that obama would be looking at over 330 electoral votes.
I'm some what of a fatalist though.
I could see obama winning by 330 the way things are today. 
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CheeseWhiz
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« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2008, 11:01:41 PM »
Obama 330+.  I just don't see McCain as being able to win it, haven't really for awhile now.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2008, 11:03:09 PM »
Quote from: CheeseWhiz on October 02, 2008, 11:01:41 PM
Obama 330+.  I just don't see McCain as being able to win it, haven't really for awhile now.

Agree.  I expect Obama to come close to 375 EVs.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2008, 11:03:37 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on October 02, 2008, 11:03:09 PM
Agree.  I expect Obama to come close to 375 EVs.

Really? I don't.
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TheresNoMoney
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« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2008, 11:07:59 PM »

Great comparison. Like Dick Morris, the opposite of what Walter Mitty predicts is usually what happens.
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Queen Mum Inks.LWC
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« Reply #20 on: October 02, 2008, 11:08:57 PM »
McCain +270
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #21 on: October 02, 2008, 11:17:23 PM »
Quote from: TheresNoMoney on October 02, 2008, 11:07:59 PM

Great comparison. Like Dick Morris, the opposite of what Walter Mitty predicts is usually what happens.

two differences between morris and myself:

1. i love hillary.
2. i dont suck the toes of prostitutes.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #22 on: October 02, 2008, 11:27:44 PM »
Walter absolutely relishes the role of contrarian.
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