Few quick points;
The poll had Kerry +5 if I recall among Registered voters, which relative to the others is a bit of an outier. Opinion Dynamics is a very "purest" poll and employs very few weights and corrections. The price they pay for this is a bit more pure random error.
Next
Gallup and most others, pushes the leaners, Opinion Dynamics does not.
Look at it this way:
Fox
Bush 47
Kerry 43
Nader 3
Undecided 7
Of those expressing a preference:
Bush 47/93 => 50.53%
Kerry 43/93 => 46.26%
I suspect in the aftermath of the Republican Convention, if you hammered the leaners Bush would have got his share
Gallup says 52/45 after pushing the leaners.
Fox says 51/46 among those expressing a preference.
Pretty darn close actually.
Pushing or not pushing the leaners is a philosophical qustion, there is no right or wrong when you are 2 months out.
Fox uses a much looser voter screen than many which is also a tad Dem friendly (as I posted before - you guys all laughed at me when I said Fox was a bit Kerry friendly methodologically
) so, on balance, I think NOT pushing the leaners is the better choice in this case.
The "Battleground" number means nothing, the sample size (+/- 320 or so) is just too small. I recall a previous Fox poll where Bush was up I think 2 but had a 9 point lead in the battlegrounds.
A national survey is designed to be "balance" in its sample Nationally, but not nessasarily within the regions.
Take national breakouts with a grain of salt, always..
All of the above being said, however,...
I really do think the GOPers ARE getting ahead of them selves.
Bush is up IMHO a fairly solid 4% or so. His base is amazinging solid (He get's REagan like numbers among the GOP) and (Fox excluded) has a modest lead among Indys right now.
I'd rather be Bush the Kerry at this point, but there is, on the GOP side, a lot of "irrational exuberance" to borrow a phrase.
Football Analogy
It's the middle of the 3rd quarter, Bush is up 14-10
Team Kerry just punted the ball after a "3 and out" and Team Bush has the ball at midfield.
I'd rather be Bush, but there is a lot of Football left to play...
