Possible Republican contenders in 2012?

[Mr. Morden]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81715.0

Romney, Palin, Huckabee, Jindal, Crist, Pawlenty, Sanford, and Thune seemed to be the most popular names when I phrased the question as "who would be regarded as the early frontrunners?".  Of course, that's a bit different from the question of who will actually run.

I expect that there will be a lot of speculation over the next two years about possible runs by Jindal and Palin, but I don't think either of them will run in 2012.  Palin would be better off first serving at least two full terms as governor of Alaska in order to help rehabilitate her public image re: the experience question.  And because of the timing of Louisiana gubernatorial elections, Jindal would have to simultaneously be campaigning for reelection as governor while running in Iowa and New Hampshire (unless he wants to bow out after one term....and I doubt he'd do that), so he'll probably wait until 2016 or later.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney and Huckabee definitely will run, and Pawlenty might throw his had in as  well if he is reelected in 2010.

Pawlenty could certainly run for president even if he doesn't run for reelection in 2010.  In fact, not running for reelection would probably be a stronger sign that he intends to run for president.  He will have already served 2 terms as governor in 2010.  Why mess around with another run for governor, which would only marginally affect his presidential viability?  Why not just immediately start focusing on the run for president as his term winds down?

[Mr. Morden]

If he didn't seek reelection then that might be a sign. If he were to run again and lose, that might hurt his chances.

It wouldn't just hurt his chances.  He'd be finished.  It's hard to get taken seriously as a presidential candidate when you've lost your most recent statewide election.  Which is why, if he really wants to run for president in 2012, he shouldn't bother risking another race for governor.  Instead, he should pull a Mitt Romney, and spend the last two years of his term as governor taking actions designed to set himself up as a top tier presidential contender (of course, this shouldn't require as much flip-flopping as in the case of Romney).

[Mr. Morden]

It's not even close, it has to be Jindal.  Young, great resume, attractive, Washington outsider, great speaker, great story.

Again, do you really see Jindal giving up on the governorship of Louisiana after just one term in order to run for president (at the age of 41)?  It seems far more likely to me that he'll wait until 2016 or 2020.

[Mr. Morden]

So with all that in mind, one of the more lunatic southern Senators or Governors may throw their hat in the ring, but Romney won't because he's afraid of being creamed, Huckabee won't because he's a reasonable and smart guy and won't want it, Palin won't because she'll be laughed out of every gymnasium in Iowa she goes to by then.

Romney and Huckabee won't run because they think they'll lose?  No, I don't think so.  They clearly want to be president (especially Romney), and they've got nothing better on their plates, so I'm fairly confident that they'll both run.  If anything, the experience of the 2008 primaries shows how thoroughly unpredictable these outcomes can be.  So even if they were down on their own chances, there's some reason for hope.

[Mr. Morden]

what about jon kyl?

I have my doubts that the GOP will be eager to nominate another septugenarian senator from Arizona in 2012.