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Author Topic: What is the largest come from behing Presidential victory?  (Read 9840 times)
oneworldunited
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« on: October 08, 2008, 01:50:27 pm »
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I am just curious, what is the largest come from behind victory in a presidential election?  Using polling data if McCain is behind by 11 points with 28 days to go, is it even possible for him to still win?  Has anyone ever come back from such a deficit with so few days to go?

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« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2008, 02:26:19 pm »
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In 2000, Gore was trailing by 13 in late October and still managed to win the Election.

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« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2008, 02:28:23 pm »
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Gallup's tracker sucked in the past.
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« Reply #3 on: October 08, 2008, 05:36:09 pm »
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Now all John McCain needs is a last minute revelation that Obama has a DUI in his past.
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2008, 05:54:56 pm »
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Are there any running polling averages, along the lines of RCP or pollster.com, for presidential elections before 2004?  I mean, yes, you can find them for individual pollsters like Gallup, but what about running averages of all the polls?

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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2008, 06:31:55 pm »
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Its not a "victory" but in August 1976, Ford trailed Carter in the polls by 32 points.  On election day, he only trailed by 2.
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2008, 03:55:07 pm »
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Probably Truman in '48.
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2008, 06:31:55 pm »
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Im pretty sure Hubert Humpherey was behind by around 10 at this time in 1968 and pulled even by election day. 
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« Reply #8 on: October 13, 2008, 09:19:40 pm »
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In 2000, Gore was trailing by 13 in late October and still managed to win the Election.

I garuntee you Gore wasn't really trailing by 13. three is more like it. Polling was exceptionally erratic that year.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2008, 07:56:34 pm »
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Now all John McCain needs is a last minute revelation that Obama has a DUI in his past.
Whitey tape will do just fine Wink
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« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2008, 07:59:15 pm »
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Truman '48 more than likely
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« Reply #11 on: March 14, 2017, 06:20:56 pm »
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Trump.
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2017, 02:23:32 pm »
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Bump.
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2017, 05:02:12 pm »
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Truman
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« Reply #14 on: March 28, 2017, 07:17:23 am »
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The ones that began with "Trum".
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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2017, 01:35:32 pm »
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Not a few days but Dukakis led Poppy Bush in August 1988 by 17 points or so and managed to lose the election by eight points.

Not a win, but noteworthy: Jimmy Carter led Gerald Ford in the polls by 30 points in August 1976. By election day, it was dead heat and Carter only barely won the race by two points.
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« Reply #16 on: May 31, 2017, 04:31:36 pm »
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Truman
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Lincoln was probably doing pretty bad before the Union took Atlanta.

Ford almost counts, as has been mentioned.
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2017, 10:43:26 pm »
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Truman & Trump
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2017, 11:27:57 pm »
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Trump was trailing by a good 6, 7, or 8 points with two weeks to go.
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« Reply #19 on: June 01, 2017, 09:17:03 am »
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Trump was trailing by a good 6, 7, or 8 points with two weeks to go.

That's still only improving 6 points at most. Donnie lost the pv by 2, and was never down much more than 10 points. Considering the natural fluctuations in the campaign, I think an average of -6 is fair.

Bush Sr. improved by 24 points.
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