Election Night Hour by Hour Prediction

[Wakie]

Ok, here's my hour by hour prediction for the events of election night this year.  I took the times of poll closings from the 2004 election (so I guess they could be a little different).  All times are in EST.


6:00 PM - Indiana Polls Close!  Kentucky Polls Close!

[Wakie]

7:00 PM - Florida polls close! Georgia polls close! New Hampshire polls close! South Carolina polls close! Vermont polls close! Virginia polls close!

Kentucky called for McCain!
Vermont called for Obama!

Obama 3 EV's, McCain 8 EV's

[Wakie]

7:30 PM - North Carolina polls close! Ohio polls close! West Virginia polls close!

West Virginia called for McCain

Obama 3 EV's, McCain 13 EV's

[Wakie]

8 PM - Alabama polls close! Connecticut polls close! Delaware polls close! DC polls close! Illinois polls close! Kansas polls close! Maine polls close! Maryland polls close! Massachusetts polls close! Michigan polls close! Mississippi polls close! Missouri polls close! New Jersey polls close! Oklahoma polls close! Pennsylvania polls close! Tennessee polls close! Texas polls close!

Alabama called for McCain!
Connecticut called for Obama!
Delaware called for Obama!
DC called for Obama!
Georgia called for McCain!
Illinois called for Obama!
Maryland called for Obama!
Massachusetts called for Obama!
Michigan called for Obama!
New Jersey called for Obama!
Oklahoma called for McCain!
Tennessee called for McCain!

Obama 91 EV's, McCain 55 EV's

[Wakie]

8:30 PM - Arkansas polls close!

South Carolina called for McCain!

Obama 91 EV's, McCain 63 EV's

[Wakie]

9 PM - Arizona polls close!  Colorado polls close! Louisiana polls close! Minnesota polls close! Nebraska polls close! New Mexico polls close! New York polls close! Rhode Island polls close! South Dakota polls close! Wisconsin polls close! Wyoming polls close!

Arizona called for McCain!
Indiana called for Obama!
Kansas called for McCain!
Louisiana called for McCain!
Nebraska called for McCain!
New York called for Obama!
Rhode Island called for Obama!
South Dakota called for McCain!
Texas called for McCain!
Wyoming called for McCain!

Obama 137 EV's, McCain 133 EV's

[Wakie]

9:30 PM -

Mississippi called for McCain!

Obama 137 EV's, McCain 139 EV's

[Wakie]

10 PM - Idaho polls close! Iowa polls close! Montana polls close! Nevada polls close! North Dakota polls close! Oregon polls close! Utah polls close!

Arkansas called for McCain!
Idaho called for McCain!
Utah called for McCain!
Virginia called for Obama!

Obama 150 EV's, McCain 154 EV's

[Wakie]

10:30 PM -

North Carolina called for McCain!
Pennsylvania called for Obama!
Wisconsin called for Obama!

Obama 181 EV's, McCain 169 EV's

[bhouston79]

Personally I think that this timeline is a little bit optimistic for McCain.  If McCain wins North Carolina, it's going to be a sqeaker, and it will be late in the evening before the state is called.  Obama is winning early voting in North Carolina by a large margin as currently about 630,000 have already cast ballots and of those 630,000 early voters 56.4% are Democrats and only 27.1% are Republicans with the rest being unaffiliated.  That's more than a two to one margin in favor of the Democrats among early voters.  Although Georgia may eventually fall to McCain it may be later in the evening before that state is called as well since of the 825,000 early voters in that state, 35.6% are African Americans.  In 2004 African Americans only consisted of about 25% of the electorate in that state.  Finally I really don't see Maine not being called for Obama early in the evening.  In 2004 all but 1 of Maine's 4 electoral votes were awarded to John Kerry when the polls closed.  This year, I would be willing to bet that all 4 electoral votes will be called for Obama at the close of the polls.

[Wakie]

11 PM - California polls close! Hawaii polls close! Washington polls close!

California called for Obama!
Iowa called for Obama!
Maine called for Obama!
Missouri called for Obama!
Washington called for Obama!

Obama 269 EV's, McCain 169 EV's

[Wakie]

11:30 PM -

Oregon called for Obama!

Obama goes over the top!!!

Obama 276 EV's, McCain 169 EV's

[Wakie]

12:00 AM - Alaska polls close!

Montana called for McCain
Colorado called for Obama
Florida called for Obama

Obama 312 EV's, McCain 172 EV's

[Wakie]

1 AM -

Alaska called for McCain
Hawaii called for Obama
New Mexico called for Obama

Obama 321 EV's, McCain 175 EV's

[Wakie]

FINAL

Obama 335 EV's, McCain 203 EV's

[Хahar 🤔]

Minnesota wouldn't take nearly that long, and Indiana isn't flipping before Ohio. Other than that, good job.

[Mr. Morden]

8 PM - Alabama polls close! Connecticut polls close! Delaware polls close! DC polls close! Illinois polls close! Kansas polls close! Maine polls close! Maryland polls close! Massachusetts polls close! Michigan polls close! Mississippi polls close! Missouri polls close! New Jersey polls close! Oklahoma polls close! Pennsylvania polls close! Tennessee polls close! Texas polls close!

Alabama called for McCain!
Connecticut called for Obama!
Delaware called for Obama!
DC called for Obama!
Georgia called for McCain!
Illinois called for Obama!
Maryland called for Obama!
Massachusetts called for Obama!
Michigan called for Obama!
New Jersey called for Obama!
Oklahoma called for McCain!
Tennessee called for McCain!

Obama 91 EV's, McCain 55 EV's

Michigan can't be called that early, because the Central Timezone part of the state votes until 9pm Eastern.  The networks no longer call states until all of the polls in the state are closed.  In fact, in the whole timeline, I think you're saying "State X polls close" whenever the first polls in the state close, not the last polls.  You need to look up the timing for states that are in multiple timezones.

[Wakie]

Minnesota wouldn't take nearly that long, and Indiana isn't flipping before Ohio. Other than that, good job.

In 2004 MN wasn't called until 4 AM.  Right now in the polls McCain is ahead in OH and behind in IN.

I will admit that my timing on when the polls close is a bit off though due to incomplete info.