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Author Topic: Who Will The Republicans Look to in 2012  (Read 19548 times)
tweed
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« Reply #25 on: October 10, 2008, 04:47:04 pm »

Palin is done... tarred and feathered
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #26 on: October 10, 2008, 05:16:09 pm »

Does anyone think maybe Tom Ridge would consider a run for the Presidency. or Colin Powell and if so What party would he run in.

How old is Colin Powell now?  Too old to run is the answer, but I'd like to know exactly.

He's 71 right now, which means that he'll be 75 on Election Day 2012....even older than Bob Dole was in 1996.

Quote
Anyway, in realistic terms, if Obama wins, a lot depends on how successful or unsuccessful his Presidency is.  That will answer whether we get the strong candidates or the not-so-strong ones.

True, but since people will have to start deciding on whether to make the run in early/mid-2011, that might be too early to know if Obama will have been seen as "successful" by Nov. 2012.  Remember 1992, when all the big name Democrats declined to run, because they were certain that Bush would be reelected?

Anyway, to answer the original question, I would guess that Romney and Huckabee would be the early frontrunners.  I don't think that Palin or Jindal will run.
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« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2008, 05:32:01 pm »

Democrats need to run Daschle again in 2010 to potentially put an end to Thune's career. He's probably the biggest threat to Democratic hegemony in the next two presidential races...

I think the GOP will end up running Romney or Thune in 2012...
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Torie
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« Reply #28 on: October 11, 2008, 12:09:13 pm »

Mitt might be back. If Ryan or Pence win a statewide race in 2010, in Wisconsin or Indiana respectively, look for them to be in the hunt. Maybe Pawlenty. Huckabee will be around. Jindal perhaps.
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« Reply #29 on: October 11, 2008, 12:59:39 pm »

Likely an as yet new, mostly unknown candidate who shines as one of the few Republican bright lights in the U.S. Senate or gubernatorial elections of 2008 or 2010.
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« Reply #30 on: October 11, 2008, 01:01:38 pm »

It's going to be Jindal, he is the total package.  The GOP is going to want their own version of Obama (young, attractive, intelligent, good speaker/debater, great story, hard core partisan who presents himself as a moderate).

Jindal today has a much better resume then Obama.  With another 4 years as governor he will be deadly.  The day after the election start watching him very closely, as that is when the 2012 campaign begins.

    
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« Reply #31 on: October 11, 2008, 02:26:40 pm »

I think Jindal has strong potential, but he has to do far better that he has already as governor.  He needs to seriously reform and reconstruct Louisiana and turn the state around to make any significant distinction in the next four to eight years.  I think if he runs in 2012 it would basically be a GOP "Hail Mary," but hey it's working for the Dems right now.  He would also have to back off a little from his hard social conservative views.

Also Obama is pretty liberal but how is he a hard core partisan?
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alan keyes, mike gravel, cynthia mckinney, ralph nader... such a mess.
maybe it would be better if we just had two big political parties that represent wide swaths of ideology run against each other instead of all these warring parties. if we only had to deal with two parties a winner would have already come out ahead and had a chance to stabilize the financial markets and to prepare to deal with iraq.
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« Reply #32 on: October 11, 2008, 03:24:21 pm »

Sarah Palin
Mike Huckabee
Mitt Romney
------------------------

All of the above are sacrificial lambs.

I don't see Bobby Jindal throwing his hat into the ring until perhaps either 2016 or 2020. 
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« Reply #33 on: October 11, 2008, 08:28:57 pm »

Will it be Mitt Romney, Sen. John Thune, Mike Huckabee, Charlie Crist, or Mark Sanford.  Will it be somebody under the radar like rick perry or a young guy like Gov. Jindal

What with the return of identity politics, they're probably scouring the Army's recruiting roster for a black, Jewish, lesbian female with an hispanic surname who served some time as a POW in Iraq.

That is, assuming nobody asked if she was a lesbian and she didn't tell anybody that she was a lesbian.
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« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2008, 08:30:01 pm »

Just please not Romney, we don't need his slime around anymore.
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Boris
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« Reply #35 on: October 11, 2008, 09:11:56 pm »

Hopefully it'll be someone intelligent, slick, and entertaining such as Romney over someone like Palin, who is too stylistically similar to George W. Bush in the way she presents herself. I doubt he'd win unless the national climate heavily favors the GOP, but he'd be a formidable foe for Obama in a debate.
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« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2008, 10:14:23 am »

IF its a landslide this time around (and not just in the presidential race), there will be a lot of soul-searching in the Republican Party. By the time they are an electoral force again they could look very different. 2012 will probably be too soon. But who knows.

I think both parties are in danger of splitting. I'm sure there are manuevers that can be pulled to prevent it, but I would not eliminate it as a possibility.

Please. You're sounding like Angry Weasel. Parties don't split in this day and age.
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« Reply #37 on: October 12, 2008, 10:35:52 am »

Probably Palin, Romney, Jindal, and 1 or 2 unexpected people.  I expect Palin to get the nomination, and then lose in a landslide.
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« Reply #38 on: October 12, 2008, 11:56:59 am »

Palin will have less chance than Edwards did this year. Romney will have a tough time remaining relevant for 4 years. Jindal's skin color problem hasn't disappeared, it simply became less than what the Democrats in Louisiana had.

Someone elected in 2004 or 2006 would be perfect for someone fresh enough, but neither Mitch Daniels or Butch Otter ain't a stellar candidate and Palin is already wasted, and that's all they got for Governors. Corker ain't going anywhere either. With all the pickups in 2004 you'd think there'd be a good candidate, but let's look:

Martinez - Ineligible, the end. Not that he would've been a candidate anyway assuming he even survives 2010.
Vitter - Normally he would be a contender. But he blew it.
Coburn - Don't make me laugh....
Isaakson - Good for a state like Georgia, but not nationwide. Boring, uninteresting policy wonk.
DeMint - He might run, but he's way too far right. He could only win in the very unlikely scenario Obama ends up as popular as Bush is now, he runs again, and survives the primary.
Burr - Possible dark horse, but what's notable about this guy? His last name is also likely a liability.
Thune - This guy might be it. Far right, but he's not as blatant about it as DeMint or Coburn. He'd require Obama to be fairly unpopular to win, but he could take the primary.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet on Thune, but there's no way I'd bet anymore than $10 right now.
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« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2008, 11:58:51 am »

Nothing about Thune suggests to me that  he is a bright enough bulb to make it. But maybe I have missed something.
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Cannan Town, Columbia County, NY
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« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2008, 01:16:34 pm »

Burr - Possible dark horse, but what's notable about this guy? His last name is also likely a liability.

Um, why?  Because of Aaron Burr?  I guarantee you less than 10% of Americans have a clue who Aaron Burr was.
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« Reply #41 on: October 12, 2008, 01:38:55 pm »

Palin will have less chance than Edwards did this year. Romney will have a tough time remaining relevant for 4 years. Jindal's skin color problem hasn't disappeared, it simply became less than what the Democrats in Louisiana had.

Someone elected in 2004 or 2006 would be perfect for someone fresh enough, but neither Mitch Daniels or Butch Otter ain't a stellar candidate and Palin is already wasted, and that's all they got for Governors. Corker ain't going anywhere either. With all the pickups in 2004 you'd think there'd be a good candidate, but let's look:

Martinez - Ineligible, the end. Not that he would've been a candidate anyway assuming he even survives 2010.
Vitter - Normally he would be a contender. But he blew it.
Coburn - Don't make me laugh....
Isaakson - Good for a state like Georgia, but not nationwide. Boring, uninteresting policy wonk.
DeMint - He might run, but he's way too far right. He could only win in the very unlikely scenario Obama ends up as popular as Bush is now, he runs again, and survives the primary.
Burr - Possible dark horse, but what's notable about this guy? His last name is also likely a liability.
Thune - This guy might be it. Far right, but he's not as blatant about it as DeMint or Coburn. He'd require Obama to be fairly unpopular to win, but he could take the primary.

If I had to bet on it, I'd bet on Thune, but there's no way I'd bet anymore than $10 right now.

Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah could be a strong candidate -- he's popular, smart, young and conservative. He's also been an ambassador and a deputy U.S. trade representative and held administrative posts in several Republican White Houses. And he's been a CEO.

His problems are that (a) he's a Mormon, which as Mitt showed, isn't a plus in a Republican primary, and (b) he actually may be too moderate for an evangelical base. He supports stem cell research and limited same-sex domestic partnerships, for example.

Also, if he himself thinks he has a strong chance, he may sit out 2012, as I imagine Jindal will. It depends on how Obama looks around 2011. He may only run if he feels that Obama is likely to lose reelection.
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Torie
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« Reply #42 on: October 12, 2008, 04:05:03 pm »

It is interesting that Huntsman supported McCain over Romney. That took some guts.
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Cannan Town, Columbia County, NY
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« Reply #43 on: October 12, 2008, 04:52:28 pm »

Nothing about Thune suggests to me that  he is a bright enough bulb to make it. But maybe I have missed something.

He's not terribly bright at all.  But that's been a plus for some candidates in the past...
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Torie
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« Reply #44 on: October 12, 2008, 04:55:07 pm »

Nothing about Thune suggests to me that  he is a bright enough bulb to make it. But maybe I have missed something.

He's not terribly bright at all.  But that's been a plus for some candidates in the past...

God, I need a drink. Depress me, and then depress me some more! 
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« Reply #45 on: October 12, 2008, 05:00:55 pm »

Nothing about Thune suggests to me that  he is a bright enough bulb to make it. But maybe I have missed something.

He's not terribly bright at all.  But that's been a plus for some candidates in the past...

God, I need a drink. Depress me, and then depress me some more! 

Then let me cheer you up about what's good in your party...

Richard Lugar
Judd Gregg
Olympia Snowe
Mark Sanford
Charlie Crist
Kay Bailey Hutchison
Susan Collins
Tom Ridge

Aw heck, Torie... now you're encouraged and I'm depressed!  Still too many good ones!  Ha!
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« Reply #46 on: October 12, 2008, 05:01:45 pm »

Nothing about Thune suggests to me that  he is a bright enough bulb to make it. But maybe I have missed something.

He is intelligent enough; no genius, but no Sarah Palin, either.
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« Reply #47 on: October 12, 2008, 05:20:50 pm »

I'm going to be different and say Dino Rossi. Well, if he manages to beat Gregoire that is. If not then forget about him.
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Torie
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« Reply #48 on: October 12, 2008, 05:30:57 pm »

I want to hear more from Pence and Ryan, and some really smart guys JS. I am tired of drones! Olympia Snowe is nice, but her problem is that she is even more liberal than I am (aka totally un-nominatable) , and I don't think she is a genius. Lugar is a fossil, and hardly an articulate speaker really, Gregg almost there in the fossil camp  (but I love the man), and the rest of your list are hardly mental giants. Crist is pleasant enough, but I can tell he won't live past about 65.
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Cannan Town, Columbia County, NY
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« Reply #49 on: October 12, 2008, 05:35:06 pm »

Why do people think Jindal is going to run in 2012?  He'll only be 41 years old, and have the one term as governor.  Wouldn't it make a lot more sense for him to wait until 2016 or later?  Yes, yes, I know Obama ran in 2008 with just 4 years worth of experience in the Senate, but that was an unusual case, and Obama didn't have to give up his Senate seat to do it.

In Jindal's case, he'd probably have to give up on reelection if he wants to run for president, since the Louisiana governors' race is in Nov. 2011, while the 2012 presidential primaries will begin in Jan. 2012.  It would seem to be kind of impractical to be campaigning in Louisiana for governor while simultaneously campaigning in Iowa for president.

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