Is Georgia a toss-up state... already ?!

[big bad fab]

PA and MI are now strong Obama states.
Ohio is getting (Leip's) redder and redder.
Logically, IN and WV are now threatened.

VA is almost lost now.
NC is trending dangerously.
Logically, GA is next in line.

And I think the Palin effect (re-energizing the conservative base) is real in the West (NW, Rocky and even, maybe, SW like in CO and NV),
but that that effect is outnumbered by Palin's rejection by more Eastern minds as in NH, VA, NC, FL.

Can't we see this also around Atlanta ?
Plus a big AA turnout.
Plus a Barr effect.
Plus a reluctance from the McCain campaign to tour anything else than MidWestern states and from McCain to make more than 2 times less events than Obama....

So, will GA slowly trend towards Obama just in time to be grasped by him on Nov. 4th ?

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

The Barr effect? Really? Come on now.

[Alcon]

I doubt it, unless Southern Baptist turnout is exceptionally depressed.

[big bad fab]

The Barr effect? Really? Come on now.

I was kiddin' by calling it an "effect". But Barr winning 2% in GA rather than 0.7% nationally is entirely possible. And 2% + Nader..... if Obama is within striking distance (3 points), it would be very frightening.

And remember states seemed to move with different delays:
first, Obama took Iowa. And NM wasn't far behind.
Then, everybody was shouting "Colorado, Colorado, Colorado" (while I was saying, among some others, "VA, VA, VA") and NV wasn't far behind.
Then, VA.... While MI was coming back to strong Dem column.
PA and NH moved after MI. And MN moved after WI.
And, suddenly FL, faster than OH.
NC is now almost the most tied state.....

These day, CO is not a very strong Obama state, even if it favours him: just in the national average. NV is UNDER national average. MT and ND are again quite safe for McCain.
On the other hand, the SE coast seems to move towards Obama, now.

Be careful, GOPers.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Be careful, GOPers.

Be careful of what?  At this point, does it even matter if McCain carries Georgia or not?  Does it matter if McCain even carries friggin' Utah?  He's not winning the election.

[Democratic Hawk]

No. I don't anticipate my ancestral state coming home on November 4

[Ronnie]

Be careful, GOPers.

Be careful of what?  At this point, does it even matter if McCain carries Georgia or not?  Does it matter if McCain even carries friggin' Utah?  He's not winning the election.

^^^^

Actually, McCain has to bring down Obama's margins to keep a bloodbath in congress from happening.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Be careful, GOPers.

Be careful of what?  At this point, does it even matter if McCain carries Georgia or not?  Does it matter if McCain even carries friggin' Utah?  He's not winning the election.

^^^^

Actually, McCain has to bring down Obama's margins to keep a bloodbath in congress from happening.

even if McCain wins, a bloodbath in congress is still likely.

[Ronnie]

Be careful, GOPers.

Be careful of what?  At this point, does it even matter if McCain carries Georgia or not?  Does it matter if McCain even carries friggin' Utah?  He's not winning the election.

^^^^

Actually, McCain has to bring down Obama's margins to keep a bloodbath in congress from happening.

even if McCain wins, a bloodbath in congress is still likely.

A few seat in congress can make the difference in passing a Democratic bill or not.

We need every seat we can hold.

[MR maverick]

These states like GA, NC,  and Virginia ( which may be already a obama strong hold)  

Those first 2  states  i don't think they will turn this year because that old white Conservative vote is still got some life. He will win them by small margins 1- 2%, however this could be a sign that in future elections these state are becoming more libreal/ younger , and the  GOP needs a get some new blood.

[Mr. Morden]

The Barr effect? Really? Come on now.

I was kiddin' by calling it an "effect". But Barr winning 2% in GA rather than 0.7% nationally is entirely possible.

Is there any evidence to suggest that Barr voters are people who would otherwise vote for McCain?

[TheresNoMoney]

Not yet, but it's getting there.

[Alcon]

The Barr effect? Really? Come on now.

I was kiddin' by calling it an "effect". But Barr winning 2% in GA rather than 0.7% nationally is entirely possible.

Is there any evidence to suggest that Barr voters are people who would otherwise vote for McCain?

I'd argue that there's evidence to suggest that Barr poll respondents are -- probably much moreso than actual Barr voters.  In fact, I think indications are that Nader respondents are more likely to be Republican-leaners.

[NOVA Green]

I'd have to see a few more polls before calling GA a tossup, and even then I have extreme doubts that McCain Edit: Obama would come within four points of McCain.

That having been said, if we continue to see relatively close polling results, this will indicate a potential shift amongst Republican leaning White voters in places like Gwinnett County. If so, this might be a potential shift from Red to Purple over the next few election cycles in GA.

Edit: Apologies, it's the weekend and I should have looked before I posted

[memphis]

No way is GA a tossup. Safe McCain.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

While I don't see McCain having a double digit margin, things don't appear to be so narrow as to put this into the tossup category yet.

[HardRCafé]

Be careful of what?  At this point, does it even matter if McCain carries Georgia or not?  Does it matter if McCain even carries friggin' Utah?  He's not winning the election.

Gosh, I wish Gore supporters had felt that way when he was down 13% in October.

[big bad fab]

The Barr effect? Really? Come on now.

I was kiddin' by calling it an "effect". But Barr winning 2% in GA rather than 0.7% nationally is entirely possible.

Is there any evidence to suggest that Barr voters are people who would otherwise vote for McCain?

With almost every poll with 2 versions (one with Obama-McCain, one with small candidates), when small candidates are included, McCain is down by a far greater margin than Obama (Sometimes, Obama has even the same level of support).

Sure, polls are not evidence, are not proof, but before election day, we don't have anything else.

[big bad fab]

Be careful, GOPers.

Be careful of what?  At this point, does it even matter if McCain carries Georgia or not?  Does it matter if McCain even carries friggin' Utah?  He's not winning the election.

Of course, that is of no interest in the present presidential election. But you need to think of other elections.

One is present: Chambliss could lose also.

And for future presidential elections, losing GA now would require to put more human and financial means in GA from the start of the campaign....

[Adlai Stevenson]

My prediction:

GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
53% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama
  1% Others


GEORGIA SENATE -
54% (R) Chambliss
45% (D) Martin