Is Georgia a toss-up state... already ?!

[big bad fab]

PA and MI are now strong Obama states.
Ohio is getting (Leip's) redder and redder.
Logically, IN and WV are now threatened.

VA is almost lost now.
NC is trending dangerously.
Logically, GA is next in line.

And I think the Palin effect (re-energizing the conservative base) is real in the West (NW, Rocky and even, maybe, SW like in CO and NV),
but that that effect is outnumbered by Palin's rejection by more Eastern minds as in NH, VA, NC, FL.

Can't we see this also around Atlanta ?
Plus a big AA turnout.
Plus a Barr effect.
Plus a reluctance from the McCain campaign to tour anything else than MidWestern states and from McCain to make more than 2 times less events than Obama....

So, will GA slowly trend towards Obama just in time to be grasped by him on Nov. 4th ?

[big bad fab]

The Barr effect? Really? Come on now.

I was kiddin' by calling it an "effect". But Barr winning 2% in GA rather than 0.7% nationally is entirely possible. And 2% + Nader..... if Obama is within striking distance (3 points), it would be very frightening.

And remember states seemed to move with different delays:
first, Obama took Iowa. And NM wasn't far behind.
Then, everybody was shouting "Colorado, Colorado, Colorado" (while I was saying, among some others, "VA, VA, VA") and NV wasn't far behind.
Then, VA.... While MI was coming back to strong Dem column.
PA and NH moved after MI. And MN moved after WI.
And, suddenly FL, faster than OH.
NC is now almost the most tied state.....

These day, CO is not a very strong Obama state, even if it favours him: just in the national average. NV is UNDER national average. MT and ND are again quite safe for McCain.
On the other hand, the SE coast seems to move towards Obama, now.

Be careful, GOPers.

[big bad fab]

The Barr effect? Really? Come on now.

I was kiddin' by calling it an "effect". But Barr winning 2% in GA rather than 0.7% nationally is entirely possible.

Is there any evidence to suggest that Barr voters are people who would otherwise vote for McCain?

With almost every poll with 2 versions (one with Obama-McCain, one with small candidates), when small candidates are included, McCain is down by a far greater margin than Obama (Sometimes, Obama has even the same level of support).

Sure, polls are not evidence, are not proof, but before election day, we don't have anything else.

[big bad fab]

Be careful, GOPers.

Be careful of what?  At this point, does it even matter if McCain carries Georgia or not?  Does it matter if McCain even carries friggin' Utah?  He's not winning the election.

Of course, that is of no interest in the present presidential election. But you need to think of other elections.

One is present: Chambliss could lose also.

And for future presidential elections, losing GA now would require to put more human and financial means in GA from the start of the campaign....