Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Sam Spade]

Time to put up the daily tracker since three polls are already in...

Daily Tracker Table - November 3, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	50.9%	43.8%	O+7.1%	O+1.4%	It's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.42%	46.50%	O+4.92%	O+0.14%	Obviously, very similar to the sample that dropped off
Battleground	49%	45%	O+4%	NC	No polling done today.
Hotline	50%	45%	O+5%	M+2%	Slight movement towards McCain.
R2000/DKos	51%	45%	O+6%	M+1%	Another strong McCain sample for this poll.
Gallup
Expanded	53%	42%	O+11%	O+2%	The final call.
Traditional	53%	42%	O+11%	O+3%
IBD/TIPP	46.7%	44.6%	O+2.1%	M+2.4%	Need to check what dropped off, but a good day for McCain probably bumped on.
ABC/WP	54%	43%	O+11%	O+2%	Good sample for Obama bumped on.
POLLS AVERAGE	51.63%	43.60%	O+8.03%	O+0.97%	Not all polls updated yet.

[Kalimantan]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

[Sam Spade]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

I know.  I'm just acknowledging that there is a load of difference between a 4-6 point race and an 8-12 point race.  And that's even with Kos' aggressive weighting (which is too aggressive, especially with, say, Hispanics).

[Kalimantan]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

I know.  I'm just acknowledging that there is a load of difference between a 4-6 point race and an 8-12 point race.  And that's even with Kos' aggressive weighting (which is too aggressive, especially with, say, Hispanics).

You said what where?

Anyway, in your cryptic way, you realy think its going to be a knife-edge election, don't you?

[Sam Spade]

R2K / Kos has shown a closing - almost all in McCain's numbers, Obamas been very stable

This has been virtually all due to republicans coming back to him, with the gap in indy support fairly steady.

I know.  I'm just acknowledging that there is a load of difference between a 4-6 point race and an 8-12 point race.  And that's even with Kos' aggressive weighting (which is too aggressive, especially with, say, Hispanics).

You said what where?

Anyway, in your cryptic way, you realy think its going to be a knife-edge election, don't you?

Oh, it has to do with my earlier talk about pollster Armageddon.  No biggie.

As I said before, I'm still trying to get my fingers around this election.  It could be a blowout  It could be close.  My likely answer will be to stay conservative, go in-between those two possibilities, and predict a 4-6 point Obama win, fwiw.

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll
Obama 50% (nc)
McCain 45% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

Battleground Poll
Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 44 (-1)

[cinyc]

Considering that the McCain +1 sample falls off tomorrow, I see a Zogby surge to Obama +10 or 11 by election day.

Unless Zogby pulls a Zogby and turns what was a three-day rolling average poll into a four-day one.  I seem to recall that he pulled that stunt during the primaries.

[The Mikado]

So, Hotline O+5, Rassy and R2Kos O+6...and Gallup O+11?

Someone's wrong.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Battleground Poll
Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 44 (-1)

Ah, the last vestage of the Freepers... or was that the IBP poll?

[Verily]

IBD/TIPP
Obama: 47.5 (+0.8)
McCain: 43.0 (-1.6)
Undecided: Obscene [9.5 (+0.8)]

[TheGlobalizer]

The 10% needs to figure it out already.

[Tender Branson]

Final Zogby/Reuters Tracking poll:

Obama 54.1 (+3.2)
McCain 42.7 (-1.1)

If this turns out to be the stunning victory for Obama, he will have done it with large leads among independents (24 points), women (20 points), moderates (32%) and those who registered to vote in the last six months (30 points).

He also wins 91% support from Democrats and leads in nearly every age group with the exception of those age 55 to 69, where McCain leads by just a half point.

McCain holds the support of 85% of Republicans and 73% of conservatives. He also leads by 7 points among whites.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1633

[Eraserhead]

OMG LOL

[Rococo4]

zogby out of business soon

[Eraserhead]

zogby out of business soon

We say that every year and it never happens.

[Kalimantan]

R2Kos final poll

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 46 (+1)

Made up of +4 Sat, +4 Sun and +7 Mon

[ChrisFromNJ]

IBP's final projection:

Obama: 51.5
McCain: 44.3

[J. J.]

R2Kos final poll

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 46 (+1)

Made up of +4 Sat, +4 Sun and +7 Mon

This is a bizarre poll.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Final Zogby/Reuters Tracking poll:

Obama 54.1 (+3.2)
McCain 42.7 (-1.1)

doesn't Zogby's family have ties to terrorism?

[TheGlobalizer]

IBD/TIPP is a LOL factory on their undecided break.  4:1 Obama?  Come on.

[Eraserhead]

IBD/TIPP is a LOL factory on their undecided break.  4:1 Obama?  Come on.

They are trying to make up for the fact that their poll way off.

[J. J.]

Final Zogby/Reuters Tracking poll:

Obama 54.1 (+3.2)
McCain 42.7 (-1.1)

doesn't Zogby's family have ties to terrorism?

No, see my first post.

[J. J.]

Obama over polled on nearly every poll.

IBD/TIPP:   7.2
Gallup:     11.0
R2K:           5.0
Zogby:     11.4 of course.
Hotline:      5.0
ABC/WP:   11.0
'bots:          4.92
Average:     8.3

Nationally, it looks like 5 points.  Bradley?

[exopolitician]

Obama over polled on nearly every poll.

IBD/TIPP:   7.2
Gallup:     11.0
R2K:           5.0
Zogby:     11.4 of course.
Hotline:      5.0
ABC/WP:   11.0
'bots:          4.92
Average:     8.3

Nationally, it looks like 4 points.  Bradley?

What? Numbers are still coming in from the west. We won't know the real PV for awhile I would imagine.