Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[Sam Spade]

Apparently, Drudge is reporting that tomorrow's Zogby will be Obama 48%, McCain 44%.  For what that's worth.

[Sam Spade]

lol @ this thread.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know what Rasmussen's party breakdown is, but because of the fact that both Obama and McCain lead 86-12 in their own parties, it's most likely that Rasmussen uses 39% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 26% Independents.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_rasmussen_reports_partisan_weighting_targets_39_3_democrat_33_0_republican

So, through Rasmussen's dynamic weighting, 39.3% D, 33.0% R, 27.7 I

Today's numbers in Rasmussen are:
DEM:  85.90% Obama, 12.16% McCain
GOP:  9.65% Obama, 88.17% McCain
IND: 50.43% Obama, 38.72% McCain

Zogby is weighting based on the 2006 Exit Polls, just fyi.

[Sam Spade]

According to a certain supply-side pundit , the first iteration of the IBD/TIPP poll will come out today showing... Obama 45, McCain 43.

It sounds about right in terms of timing.  IBD/TIPP started doing their tracking poll in 2004 on October 12.

This poll has an excellent record (most accurate poll in 2004, within MOE in 2000 (Bush +1.9%)).  They do not push the leaners very much until the end.

It deserves a separate thread.

[Sam Spade]

According to a certain supply-side pundit , the first iteration of the IBD/TIPP poll will come out today showing... Obama 45, McCain 43.

It sounds about right in terms of timing.  IBD/TIPP started doing their tracking poll in 2004 on October 12.

This poll has an excellent record (most accurate poll in 2004, within MOE in 2000 (Bush +1.9%)).  They do not push the leaners very much until the end.

It deserves a separate thread.

Is it out yet?

Nope.  Hey, maybe this was psyops for Republicans.

[Sam Spade]

Finally have the internals...

October 6-12, 825 LV

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=308790300872940#pollb

Small sample size per day, but there shouldn't be ridiculous movement, as this poll is highly weighted.  I think the party ID has always been 39D, 35R, 26I (2000/2004 as well).

[Sam Spade]

One advante is a four day sample; it won't be affected as much by a skewed sample.

Sam, how does the weighting look to you?

Four-day sample?  Looks like a 7-day sample to me.

I know that party ID is somewhere between D+2 to D+4.  I'm pretty sure it's D+4, but I'm willing to be corrected.  As for the rest of the weights, they look ok to me (with the usual MOE caveats), but I don't have exact percentages.

[Sam Spade]

Finally have the internals...

October 6-12, 825 LV

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=308790300872940#pollb

Small sample size per day, but there shouldn't be ridiculous movement, as this poll is highly weighted.  I think the party ID has always been 39D, 35R, 26I (2000/2004 as well).

Unless they're defining "Midwest" very strangely, I find it highly unlikely McCain is leading in the region. (Kerry won it under any reasonable definition.)

MOE, Verily.  I doubt the sample here is larger than 200 or so.

[Sam Spade]

One advante is a four day sample; it won't be affected as much by a skewed sample.

Sam, how does the weighting look to you?

Four-day sample?  Looks like a 7-day sample to me.

I know that party ID is somewhere between D+2 to D+4.  I'm pretty sure it's D+4, but I'm willing to be corrected.  As for the rest of the weights, they look ok to me (with the usual MOE caveats), but I don't have exact percentages.

You are correct, I thought it was a seven day sample.

Plus four over Democrats?

I always thought it was D+4, but it's definitely between D+2 and D+4.  The distinction in the actual numbers with D+2 vs. D+4 is not really meaningful.

[Sam Spade]

Drudge leaked tomorrow's Zogby numbers (if anyone actually cares)...

Obama 49%
McCain 43%

Zogby certainly does...

[Sam Spade]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

[Sam Spade]

The Daily Kos poll is questionable in my view, and will always be questionable.

Indeed, it is consistently the most favorable poll to the Dems by a large margin.  But it's a reasonable respectable institution, unike Zogby.  I reserve the strike-out for proven idiocy only.

You know, Zogby, although he's an idiot, has gotten things correct before.  We might call it luck, but a broken clock is right twice a day.

I can't legitimately call Daily Kos a reasonably respectable institution, even though I know that's not what you're talking about.

[Sam Spade]

ZOGBY WEDNESDAY

OBAMA 48.2%, MCCAIN 44.4%... NOT SURE 7.4%... DEVELOPING...

[Sam Spade]

Can someone answer me something? How can Zogby be done polling when it is only 4:48 on the west coast? I really don't understand.

It's Zogby.  He can poll anywhere, anytime.  Including before it actually happens. 

Guess what - these are actually next Saturday's numbers!!!!!!

[Sam Spade]

What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?

Pretty sure it's 38D-36R-26I, the numbers for the 2006 exit poll.  Could be as much as D+4, but it's not even.

[Sam Spade]

Hotline - Oct. 15
Obama 49% (+1)
McCain 41% (-1)

GW Battleground - Oct. 15
Obama 51% (-2)
McCain 43% (+3)

...bumpy...

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - October 15, 2008
Obama 45 (nc)
McCain 42 (nc)

RCP provides us a nice table of the poll here.  Also looks like they've shortened it to a six day poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/2008-IBD-TIPP-DAY3.html

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll (10/16)
Obama 49% (nc)
McCain 41% (nc)

[Sam Spade]

GW/Battleground (10/16)
Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 44 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

DK/R2000 Poll (10/16)
Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 41 (nc)

[Sam Spade]

TIPP, Thursday, October 15, 2008

Obama      45 (nc)

McCain      42 (nc)

You might want to look at the 18-24 group.

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/Polls.aspx?id=309042090194597

It's called MOE.  Two days ago it was 74-21 Obama.  The total number of 18-24 voters is unlikely to be more than 100 in this poll - probably less.

[Sam Spade]

GW/Battleground (10/17)
Obama 49 (-1)
McCain 45 (+1)

[Sam Spade]

Ah, Zogby.

[Sam Spade]

IBD/TIPP - October 18, 2008
Obama 47 (+1)
McCain 40 (-1)

...polls sure are jumping around today...

[Sam Spade]

Diageo Hotline Poll - 10/19
Obama 48% (-1)
McCain 41% (-1)