Non-Gallup/Rasmussen tracking polls thread

[ChrisFromNJ]

Apparently, Drudge is reporting that tomorrow's Zogby will be Obama 48%, McCain 44%.  For what that's worth.

Does anybody else find it quite humorous that Drudge's new favorite poll is Zogby?

Isn't this the same poster the lunatic fringe on the right lambasted for the last 4 years for predicting Kerry would win the 2004 election by a wide margin?

Desperation is an ugly thing.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Um, R2000 is not Zogby.   R2000 is a respectable firm with Democratic bias.  I would certainly consider R2000  to be better than the unknown Hotline poll.

Zogby has no consistency or reliability.

R2000 has some weighting problems.  Zogby is, well, Zogby.

Well, fix the weighting and apply your own interpretation to it.

[ChrisFromNJ]

What is the party ID weighting for this Zogby poll?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Zogby/Reuters/C-SPAN - Friday, October 17:

Obama: 48.7 (-0.3)
McCain: 43.7 (+0.2)

This latest report includes most of one 24-hour polling cycle that was conducted after the debate. The balance of the three days of survey work included in the rolling average came prior to the debate Wednesday at Hofstra University on Long Island. However, the most recent 24-hour cycle of polling was little changed from the three days of combined data. The one-day total showed Obama with a 3.6% advantage over McCain, while the three-day total showed Obama with a 5.0% edge, 48.7% to 43.7% for McCain.

The one-day sample includes 400 likely voters nationwide and carries a margin of error of +/- 5.0 percentage points, while the three-day rolling average tracking poll includes 1,210 likely voters interviewed Oct. 14-16, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Obama widened his lead among independents, where he wins 52% support, compared to 33% for McCain. The two candidates have been battling to a near-tie each day among men, and today they are tied at 46% each. Among women, Obama leads by 10 points, 52% to 42%. He led by eight points among women yesterday.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1595

How come this news isn't on Drudge?

[ChrisFromNJ]

For some reason, IBD hasn't updated its website for October 17, but TIPP has:

Obama 46 (+1); McCain 41 (-1)

http://www.tipponline.com/

Dave

Over/under on how long it takes for the conservatives to throw this poll under the bus?

[ChrisFromNJ]

R2000/Kos
See Hotline, except add political issues.  Also add the standard R2000 slight Dem bias.

You people are annoying.

No mention from Sam about Zogby push polling for the McCain campaign.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Zogster
Obama 50.3%(+.5)
McCain 42.4%(-2)

ZOGBY SHOCK: OBAMA UP 8

[ChrisFromNJ]

GWBattleground - 10/21
Obama 48
McCain 47

The Freeps found their new favorite poll.

Zogby last wekk, Battleground this week.

Who will it be next week?

[ChrisFromNJ]

ZOGBY: OBAMA TAKES 10-POINT LEAD... DEVELOPING...

[ChrisFromNJ]

Daily Tracker Table - October 24, 2008

Poll Name	Obama	McCain	Margin	Change	Observation
Zogby	51.3%	41.0%	O+10.3%	M+1.6%	Who knows - it's Zogby!
Rasmussen	51.80%	44.80%	O+7.00%	O+0.17%	Good Obama sample fell off replaced by another good Obama sample.  Good for Obama.
Battleground	49%	46%	O+3%	M+1%	Hard to tell.  I think there may be a pro-McCain sample in the middle weighting it down a little, but who knows.
Hotline	50%	43%	O+7%	O+2%	Obviously, a good Obama sample came on today.
R2000/DKos	52%	40%	O+12%	O+2%	Good Obama sample came on today.
NOT UPDATED
Gallup
Expanded	51%	45%	O+6%	M+2%	Looks like Gallup midweek movement to me.
Traditional	50%	46%	O+4%	M+1%	Ditto.
IBD/TIPP	44.8%	43.7%	O+1.1%	M+2.6%	Looks like a good McCain sample fell on.
ABC/WP	54%	43%	O+11%	NC	No real change as far as I can tell here.
POLLS AVERAGE	50.82%	42.96%	O+7.86%	O+0.31%	Only includes polls updated so far today.

Thanks for this, Sam!

[ChrisFromNJ]

You righties.... er, I mean indies... are really getting desperate when you are flaunting a one day average in a Zogby poll.

[ChrisFromNJ]

I will assume that today's Zogby does not contain good news for McCain, since Sludge hasn't posted anything about it yet.

[ChrisFromNJ]

F***cking Drudge giving it the headline treatment when it's a ZOGBY, SINGLE-DAY poll...  I swear, sometimes HuffPost is less ridiculous.

Sometimes?

Huffington Post is infinitely more reasonable than Drudge Report.

[ChrisFromNJ]

R2000/DailyKos does not show the narrowing that Zogby saw:

Obama 51 (nc)
McCain 44 (-1)

Friday sample only:

Obama 52 (nc)
McCain 43 (-1)

Glad to see that this tracking poll is starting to revert back to where it was a week ago. I was starting to get worried. Because, in reality, with the weightings in this tracking poll, if you are only up 5 in this poll, you are likely only up 1 or 2 nationally.

[ChrisFromNJ]

GALLUP SHOCK: OBAMA UP 10 in Likely Voters



http://www.gallup.com/poll/111661/Gallup-Daily-Obama-52-McCain-42-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

A bit excited huh...? This is the non-Gallup thread

You're right.. I just deleted it.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Where is Sludge's update?

[ChrisFromNJ]

Battleground Poll
Obama 50 (+1)
McCain 44 (-1)

Ah, the last vestage of the Freepers... or was that the IBP poll?

[ChrisFromNJ]

IBP's final projection:

Obama: 51.5
McCain: 44.3